Forex Trading Signal 9-23-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

Well, we definitely got some decisive price action yesterday that led towards our final rally leg now underway. Fortunately the risky strategy of buying the dip here that I've talked about the last few signals paid off and we got our break higher. As the EUR/USD took out it's highs, it's held on quite strong and this final rally leg likely has further to extend higher, while a decline below 1.4715 would be the first sign that perhaps the rally has ended. The Euro should see some continuation upside to it's next resistance around 1.4870 and potentially 1.5000 amidst this final rally, the GBP/USD may get as much upside as frustrated GBP shorts capitulate and cover their shorts alongside those entering fresh longs. Because of this, getting long both EU and GU may be a good play, and exiting the EUR/GBP early may be a good idea depending on how the BoE minutes play out. If the BoE minutes turn out to be GBP strengthening, I'd exit our EUR/GBP long from last week ahead of schedule. If the minutes lead towards GBP weakness, I'd keep it in play for our 0.9200 TP. Keep in mind that we're on standby for a long term position trade short on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but we're waiting for this final rally to run out of steam first.

It's not so much about the Euro hitting a key level and turning lower. Chances are the top will come when a big negative news item shocks the market a bit and gets the snowball rolling downhill. The market is so saturated short USD, that any change in momentum will slowly lead to massive USD short-covering. It's possible even that today's FOMC could provide such a shock. Maybe it won't come for days or even a couple of weeks. Just stay tuned and I'll let you guys know what the odds are out there.

Gold managed to find upside along with the weakening USD, and I'm holding on for my 1035 TP. As with the Euro, I'm looking to short Gold and Silver long term, but I'm waiting for signs that this rally has topped out first.

Stocks pushed through 1068 early at the open, which was a good sign for further gains to come. While I would have liked to see a bigger up day today than merely 0.4%-0.7% on the various indices, I think we've got enough evidence to get short term long on the S&P which I did around 1069 today. I'm working with a stop around 1054 and I'm looking to take 1/2 profits around 1090 for 21 points. I'm going to hold off on selecting the TP for my 2nd half just yet.

In news Tuesday, CAD Retail Sales came out very low and traded just as expected with a 35 pip initial rally, a period of consolidation/pullback, then a continuation rally hitting about 55 pips above prerelease. Take a look at the charts and look back at yesterday's signal (http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...ls/5841-forex-trading-signal-9-22-2009-a.html) and you'll see it was a pretty predictable opportunity for some clean pips. NZ GDP came out much better than expected as well, but unfortunately the retracement never really came. We got the 30-50 pip intial reaction, but it ended up taking off for much higher 100+ pip gains without pulling back 50% first. A big winner if you chased it down at some point, and also, if you decided to go for the 50% retracement after the 100+ pip gains, that would have gotten you long around 0.7250 which was within pips of the eventual retracement lows (now at 0.7270 and rising), so there was more than one way to skin the cat here. In news Wednesday:

0430 BoE Minutes - No triggers to report here because all of the price action will come from the BoE's discussion of their Asset Purchase Facility (APF) which is their version of quantitative easing (QE) and/or their discussion of a potential rate cut on their deposit/renumeration rate (remember the BoE tape bomb discussed in http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex...ve/5792-forex-trading-signal-9-16-2009-a.html).
If they actively discussed cutting the renumeration/deposit rate, GBP/USD should drop 50 pips.
If they strongly considered a further expansion of the APF, GBP/USD should drop 30-50 pips.
If neither possibility was on the table at this month's meeting, or if the BoE decides to cap off the APF at current levels, GBP/USD should rally 50 pips.

1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.25% unanimously expected) - The FOMC is expected to maintain the current level of $1.75T asset purchase program. It's unlikey they would expand that program as last meeting they stretched out the purchase period which I see as the first step towards the "unwinding" of the Fed's accomodative programs. My gut tells me there's going to be another shoe to drop at this meeting of the hawkish variety.
If they come out with something like announcing a program of reverse repos, hinting at interest rate hikes, or simply becoming much more optimistic about the economy. If any of these occur, it will lead to a good EUR/USD short for 50+ pips.
If they are rather pessimistic about the rise in bank failures and credit conditions and look to extend emergency programs further into next year, the EUR/USD should rally 50+ pips.

TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
 

jjenterprise

Recruit
Messages
3
Sir Pipsalot, I appreciate you work, you do an amazing explanation I am new in this forum and I was searching in other dates at this forums to find where I can Get this news at no time. there are any website that the principal info are about forex?

Thanks for your response
keep the good work
 

josgab

Recruit
Messages
5
euro-esd

Is there a co-relation between the euro -usd and euro -jpy? I mean is there a more likelihood that they may move in tandem with each other, just as the euro-usd and gpb-usd more often that not, move together in the same direction?
 

Moti Bitter

Recruit
Messages
1
Excellent thread. I'm a new registered user.
How do I register to get daily signal? when are the signals sent?

Thanks!
 

Tim Batoi

Recruit
Messages
2
Password for DailySignals

I am a new recruit, and was able to login ok. But when I tried to access the Daily Signal thread, it asked me for a password and did not accept my current FPA password. Is this another password that I need? I could not find any where to register for this thread. Thanks
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
I am a new recruit, and was able to login ok. But when I tried to access the Daily Signal thread, it asked me for a password and did not accept my current FPA password. Is this another password that I need? I could not find any where to register for this thread. Thanks
The PW for the current signals is in the email we send out every night.
 
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