Gold Gold Daily Video, November 09, 2023

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Gold keeps bearish context valid. We consider 1922-1930 area as next destination point. Today-tomorrow tactical bounce is possible as Gold is flirting with XOP target around 1940-1942 area:

 

[sveckar22]

This setup on US Oil looks atractive to me. It seems to have everything neccesary for at least a reaction to the big Daily OP target and 0.382 retracement from the high to the OP target.

ABC OP on the daily chart with the slower cd leg and the close just above the 0.618 FIB yesterday.

On the 4H chart it seems that the market is not finding much support.

But on the 1H chart we have an almost perfect 3 Drive pattern to which the market showed a nice reaction immediately after hiting it. And there is already the first abc forming on the way to the upside on the 1H chart.

I went long but I guess the conservative approach would be to wait for a potential pullback after the first OP or XOP was hit on the 1H chart.

 

[Sive Morten]

I went long but I guess the conservative approach would be to wait for a potential pullback after the first OP or XOP was hit on the 1H chart.

Let's see, oil is very politicized, tending to sharp direction changing. On daily chart BC-D action is a butterfly, with acceleration down. This might be the sign that oil could slip lower to 1.618 extension before situation starts changing...

 

[sveckar22]

Let's see, oil is very politicized, tending to sharp direction changing. On daily chart BC-D action is a butterfly, with acceleration down. This might be the sign that oil could slip lower to 1.618 extension before situation starts changing...

Agree, if it fails here the XOP it could go for the XOP for sure, do you think we could see something bigger on Monthly chart like this abc COP, although I am not sure how to draw the FIBs from the late 2020 lows when the price went negative.

To be honest I trade the best when I dont look at the fundamentals, I would look at the upcoming events, FED meetings etc. in expectation of higher volatility but for me trying to match technical and fundamentals only confuses me most of the time so I just look at the chart

 

[Sive Morten]

Agree, if it fails here the XOP it could go for the XOP for sure, do you think we could see something bigger on Monthly chart like this abc COP, although I am not sure how to draw the FIBs from the late 2020 lows when the price went negative.

Monthly time frame is where we dealing directly with fundamentals and drop to 60$ can't happen just occasionally. Obviously some definite reasons should be. I suggest only global recession and big drop in demand of major consumers. Or, if somebody boosts extraction above common sense. On your monthly chart I do not see yet 100% clear setup. It might be upside AB-CD to 110 at the same degree as drop to $60... Let's have a look...

But, on chart below - we have the grabber, suggesting drop below 75$ and oil is already starts moving down. So? 60?

To be honest I trade the best when I dont look at the fundamentals, I would look at the upcoming events, FED meetings etc. in expectation of higher volatility but for me trying to match technical and fundamentals only confuses me most of the time so I just look at the chart

In this case it would be better to keep the way that brings best fruits.

 

[sveckar22]

Monthly time frame is where we dealing directly with fundamentals and drop to 60$ can't happen just occasionally. Obviously some definite reasons should be. I suggest only global recession and big drop in demand of major consumers. Or, if somebody boosts extraction above common sense. On your monthly chart I do not see yet 100% clear setup. It might be upside AB-CD to 110 at the same degree as drop to $60... Let's have a look...

But, on chart below - we have the grabber, suggesting drop below 75$ and oil is already starts moving down. So? 60?
View attachment 87907


In this case it would be better to keep the way that brings best fruits.

Thank you

 

[Sive Morten]

It seems we're at spot on, mate

 

[sveckar22]

It seems we're at spot on, mate

Crazy volatility since THU.

This Long setup looks good to me on USD/JPY for at least 0.238 FIB retracement maybe even 0.618