Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, February 03 - 07, 2020

[minimax]

This zone is nice just bulls to come from indeces and we are in Cypher (on H2) with target 78,6 @ 1587 and 5-0 (on 30M) with target @ 1589
Strong break of 1563 could lead us to 1550 and lower..

 

[minimax]

I expect unfolding of whatever in next hour ot two..

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

Once gold has got some relief from virus panic - it was driven by its own factors which stands more in favor of retracement. Yesterday we warned that for the long entry it would be better to wait action above 1584 and if you do not want to go short with daily grabber - don't go long at least.

Thus, yesterday's collapse looks pretty nice and if market will get more relief with virus, downside action should continue and we could get first downside AB=CD on daily chart:

Today, we could consider short entry based on two potential patterns. First one is B&B "Sell" on 4H chart. Uncompleted COP target should attract market and provides advantage to short position:

While on 1H chart - we could keep an eye on upside AB-CD retracement and "222" Sell" around K-resistance area of 1565-1567. If we will get it - we could try to go short. Potential targets stand in 1541-1544 area.

 

[minimax]

Last Friday I asked myself what if US30 needs last (?) higher high and so here it is my point of view. Nasdaq is in heaven, SP500 is near to, US30 is climbing to, or not, because US30 has 2 patterns, Cypher with target at 78,6% @ 29150 and 5-0 which should exceed highest high before a retrace 50% or could be change in direction into deeps.

 

[minimax]

US30 hit 78,6 and stopped.. XAG stopped at 78,6 retracement but XAU looks like respecting 1550 more than any real zone of changing direction.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

Today we do not expect big activity, because of NFP eve and lack of driving factors (at least right now). Long-term fundamental background supports idea of deeper retracement. We talk about it every week. But today we probably have to deal with just short-term setups.

On 4H chart on reaching COP target market has formed bearish reversal candle. It makes possible at least minor continuation to reach COP totally:

That's why we have to be careful to key level on 1H chart. This is actually "C" point. Once market stands above it - it keeps chances on forming upside AB-CD with OP target right at K-resistance of 1565-1567. If price will drop below "C" point again - it means that we will see downside butterfly and final completion of XOP target which still stands here.

It means that if you want to go short - wait either of "C" point breakout or completion of upside AB-CD retracement. While if you intend to go long - just control that market stands above "C" point.

 

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

people ask for update on GBP. As gold has completed our AB-CD intraday target and now stands around resistance area, waiting for NFP numbers - let's, indeed, take a look at GBP.

Last time we've traded GBP on BoE meeting and rally indeed was good. But on next day situation has changed drastically, showing classical "Buy on rumor sell on fact" performance. Additionally we've got failure upside breakout of triangle, which suggests overall bearish context. It means that our major downside AB-CD pattern is still valid and we're watching for OP target around 1.27 area. At the same time major action should happen next week, or later, because now market stands not too far from daily oversold level. Thus, we suggest that 1.28 level probably should be the floor today, if NFP data will be good enough.

On 4H chart downside action could take the shape of butterfly, which 1.27 target stands precisely around 1.28 area:

On 1H chart we have other multiple targets as well. Now price is coiling around COP, while OP stands at the same 1.28

That's being said overall context looks bearish but today downside potential is limited by oversold area. It makes us thing that if even NFP will be good - hardly GBP drops below 1.28 level.

 

[anthony egbiwe]

great analysis as usual thanks . God bless and keep you