NZD/USD Daily Video, March 13, 2015

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Recently I've got many questions on NZD perspectives, so, let's update our short-term view:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

Sive, On your video of 24th Feb you talked about the Weekly or Monthly Bearish Grabber and taking out of the lows @ 0.7175! You also said that this could take the form of a larger AB-CD pattern as there was support at around 0.7290. Now if you look at Daily chart this seems to be what is taking place. The lows at 0.7175 did not get taken out by the Pin Bar of the 11th March. Besides the overall trend is still very much down on all time frames with US$ strength!
I cannot really see why you have changed your mind about this and are now talking about more possible upward continuation? The weekly or monthly grabber you mentioned on 24th Feb still surely has the precedence!?

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive, On your video of 24th Feb you talked about the Weekly or Monthly Bearish Grabber and taking out of the lows @ 0.7175! You also said that this could take the form of a larger AB-CD pattern as there was support at around 0.7290. Now if you look at Daily chart this seems to be what is taking place. The lows at 0.7175 did not get taken out by the Pin Bar of the 11th March. Besides the overall trend is still very much down on all time frames with US$ strength!
I cannot really see why you have changed your mind about this and are now talking about more possible upward continuation? The weekly or monthly grabber you mentioned on 24th Feb still surely has the precedence!?

Hi Brett,
reasons I've explained in video.
Couple of comments on former analysis:
1.Only weekly grabber, there was no monthly one...
2. Market has completed 0.618 Ab-CD down (that was our "222" Sell on 4-hour chart, remember?) and has formed directional bullish grabber on weekly chart!
3. Upside action does not necessary means that former setup of lows taking will fail. Currently we see signs that market could form some AB-CD up but we do not know exactly what extension it will take. Say, if 0.618 - then AB-CD upside action will be completed and NZD could re-establish move down and taking out of lows. This setup is shorter-term and could be treated as inner to our previous one. This is just retracement as reaction on reaching 0.618 AB=CD target.

Final thought is pragmatic (if lows will not be taking out somehow) - every pattern could fail and market behavior could change. Our task is not blindly and stubbornly follow to what we've said ones, but adopt to new facts that we have. JM Keynes once said "when situation has changed - I change my mind and what do you do, sir?"