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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by WindsorBrokers, Oct 23, 2012.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Windsor Brokers Representative

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    EUR/USD

    Near-term price action moves in a choppy directionless mode, trading within 1.3000/70 range. Hourly studies show prevailing neutral tone, but loss of momentum may be a signal for revisiting range’s lower boundary, as the price slides below initial support at 1.3040. On 4h chart price breaks below 20 day EMA, with indicators turning lower. With upside being capped by previous high at 1.3070 and good support at 1.3000 zone, Fib 38.2% of 1.2802/1.3138 and 55 day EMA, keeping the downside protected for now, break of either side would give more clear picture of near-term direction. However, overall bulls off 1.2800 higher base and larger uptrend from 1.2042, remain intact for now, with clearance of 1.3138/70 barriers required to resume. Conversely, break below strong support at 1.2800, double-bottom / 200 day MA / main bear trendline off 1.2042, would significantly weaken the structure.

    Res: 1.3076, 1.3100, 1.3138, 1.3170
    Sup: 1.3023, 1.3012, 1.3000, 1.2990

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    GBP/USD

    Cable’s near-term structure remains negative, as consolidation of the latest sharp fall stalled on approach to the initial resistance at 1.6065, 19 Oct high / Fib 38.2% of 1.6178/1.5989 downleg and subsequent easing struggling to hold above 1.6000 support. Hourly studies remain weak, as the price slides below 10/20 EMA’s, while more negative tone is shown on 4h chart, as indicators hold in the negative territory and price broke below 4h Ichimoku cloud and Tenkan-sen line. This keeps the downside favored in the near-term, also as a part of broader downtrend from 1.6308, with break below 1.6000/1.5975, seen as a trigger for fresh weakness towards 1.5900 zone, 23 Aug high / Fib 38.2% of 1.5267/1.6308 ascend.

    Res: 1.6023, 1.6051, 1.6065, 1.6083
    Sup: 1.6000, 1.5989, 1.5975, 1.5958

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    USD/JPY

    The pair continues to trend higher, with clearance of last barrier at 79.65, resulted in test of our near-term target and psychological barrier at 80.00. Overall bullish tone keeps the upside favored, however, pause in current rally is likely, as hourly indicators emerge from overbought territory, while overextended 4h chart indicators started to point lower. Immediate supports lie at 79.65 and 79.45, previous highs, with significant support at 79.00, Fib 38.2% of 77.42/80.00, reinforced by ascending 55 day EMA, expected to contain any stronger reversal and keep near-term bulls in play. Upside clearance of 80.00/09, round figure / 05 July high , to open 80.65, 25 June peak / 50% of 84.17/77.12 descend, next.

    Res: 80.00, 80.09, 80.65, 81.00
    Sup: 79.78, 79.65, 79.45, 79.21

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    USD/CHF

    Hourly studies are showing signs of improvement, as reversal from 0.9288, last Friday’s recovery high, find footstep at 0.9250 zone and fresh strength emerges from there. With fresh momentum on 4h chart and MACD attempting through the midline, immediate scope is seen for test of 0.9288, also 55 day EMA, break of which and 0.9300, Fib 38.2% of 0.9430/0.9213 / main bear-trendline, is required to resume near-term corrective action of the larger downmove from 0.9430 and expose important barriers at 0.9350/70. However, larger picture bears off 0.9970 remain fully in play and regain of minimum 0.9400 barrier would improve the structure.

    Res: 0.9288, 0.9292, 0.9310, 0.9350
    Sup: 0.9258, 0.9247, 0.9213, 0.9200

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