Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 04-09-2010

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

Well, EUR/USD rallied out of my buying range perfectly. The last several days I've mentioned the EUR/USD would be a great buy in the 1.3250-1.3300 range, and we bottomed out with the lows for the day today at 1.3281 with plenty of time and reattempts of 1.3300 to encourage that long entry. Hopefully you remembered my advice and saw a similar opportunity there. In any case, I'm now biased more bullishly on the EUR/USD and I think we should see some decent additional upside to the 1.3500's at least and quite likely something near 1.3800 over the next 2 weeks or so. With the EUR/USD at 1.3355 as I type, getting in now or on a bit more of a dip with a fairly wide SL isn't such a horrible idea either.

Stocks pushed up a bit today but held below Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs and avoiding our SL on our short. I'm still optimistic we'll see downside soon, so I think the short is worth holding as discussed yesterday. Usually when I make a public trade it takes a day or two to get moving. This is a good thing because it gives people time to get in, but it can also cause some impatience, so it's best keep the faith until the evidence speaks to the contrary.

In news Thursday we saw UK Industrial Production hit a smaller trigger and still register a nice 50+ pip up move, so I think it's safe to say this indicator is back in action. UK and ECB interest rate decisions were fairly uneventful. In news Friday:

0700 CAD Employment (26K expected) - This trade is a big 50+ pip mover most of the time when a trigger is hit, and sometimes even when it's not. It's definitely worth a more aggressive trade as retracements do not always come easily. Typically the first minute will shoot 45-70 pips, and the 2nd minute will pull back 10-20 pips and that's the best shot you'll get to get in before it resumes.

One thing to look out for though is a big prenews buildup... if a strong move comes in during the final few minutes before the news, and the news comes out in that direction... it means the data was probably leaked and the move will not be quite as strong as usual as the prenews traders take their profits. In this situation, it's still worth a trade, but try holding out for more of a typical news trade retracement.

If it comes out at 41K or higher, USD/CAD should drop 50+ pips
If it comes out at 11K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 50+ pips

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot
 

mechtech63

Corporal
Messages
123
Good post Sir Pips,

What do you think will be the driving force to get this pair moving upward? I'm trying to understand more of the reasoning for these moves. I have been reading other posters in forums, saying that EURUSD is still heading south. So, I'm a little confused.:confused:
 
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