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Sir Pipsalot's Friday Market Update 2-12-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Feb 11, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Well, the Greece bailout saga continues to play out with selloffs on default concerns, then rallies on bailout speculation, followed by more selling on lack of bailout follow-through thusfar. Be careful on the EUR/USD as this strong sentimental driver may continue to dominate price action in a dramatic fashion. That aside, I mentioned yesterday that as long as Wednesday's highs remain intact, it's quite likely we'll resume the downtrend and head for around 1.3450 and possibly 1.3100 before we get a more substantial retracement. While that scenario seems to be coming together, it's not completely confirmed and obvious news risk exists as previously stated. I am still biased Bearish on EUR/USD.

    Stocks still seem poised for a dramatic decline from this area. It's possible we may continue to hold up through Friday since the Friday before this holiday weekend typically boasts positive price action; however, we could trump that and head down hard tomorrow or Tuesday (Monday's a holiday) at the latest. As long as we do not rally past the 1080's, I think this is an excellent spot to get in short, and I plan to add to my latest short from 1099 by doubling the position with an entry sometime Friday morning.

    In news Thursday, NZ Retail sales I thought was too risky to trade, but it performed adequately thanks to a very large deviation on the q/q Ex-Inflation figure. I still feel like good NZ trades in the 1645 timeslot are more the exception than the rule though. In news Friday:

    German GDP q/q prelim (0.2% expected) - In the past, with a decent deviation, EUR/USD will react 15-30 pips initially with another 15-30 pips of follow through over 15-20 minutes or so. With all of the other overriding concerns for the Eurozone, I'm not sure if this report will be able to drive price action the same way though.
    If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40-50 pips
    If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, EUR/USD shoudl fall 40-50 pips

    0830 US Retail Sales Ex Autos (0.4% expected) - This indicator is probably best played on USD/JPY for safety's sake. It's quite possible EUR/USD or EUR/JPY could perform much better, but there's more risk that either of those pairs could shoot the other way unexpectedly. If both the Ex Autos and headline number agree, the move on USD/JPY should hold up for 30 minutes or so.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
    If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Feb 11, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2010
  2. koco

    koco Private, 1st Class

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    Sir Pipsalot, at first thank you for all the hard work you're doing for us. I would like to ask, did you take the NZD Retail Sales trade yesterday? I finally stayed out, because of unsure moves it does and now looking at the charts I'm very regreting it :-( I should have grabbed those nice 40 pips :-(
     
  3. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    There's lots of time when a trade that is a bit too risky will actually perform well, it doesn't mean you should trade those every time. In fact, if you watched the action live, it went down 30 pips or so, then whipsawed back to prerelease within the first minute. It might have been tough to hold it short and hold it long enough to make a decent profit in those circumstances, especially paying the daily swap at 5pm since you're short.

    Never beat yourself up too much for missing an opportunity. Usually that tricks you into getting into trades you should have stayed out of so you don't "miss out" again. You just have to catch a few of the good ones and patiently wait for the next solid setup.
     

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