Sir Pipsalot's Monday Market Update 08-02-2010

Hey folks,

My upwards bias on EUR/USD from last week still holds pat. We are testing resistance just ahead of 1.3100, but that resistance should fail and we'll see another push higher. My best guess is 1.3250 in the next 1-2 days. A decline to 1.2950 or below would negate this forecast, so try buying on dips or shorter target momentum trades following a breakout higher.

GBP/USD may be an even better long than EUR/USD right now. It's looking quite bullish. I think a buy on dip would be quite opportune if it develops, so I'd look to buy in the 1.5665-1.5685 area with a 50 pip SL and 50-150 pip TP's.

Stocks consolidated a bit and dipped lower as anticipated, but I've remained steadfast that this dip is still a good one to buy into short to medium term. I remain long from around 1100 with 1115 and 1125 TP's with SL just below Friday's lows. Remember though, once we get that last push higher (likely to top around 1130), it will set up for a great short medium to long term.

In news Friday, even a tiny disappointment on US GDP sent USD/JPY lower by 45 pips over 10 minutes or so. Chicago PMI saw 38 pips up, about half came early from 09:42 to 09:45, with the rest coming over the next 5-10 minutes. In news Monday:

2130 AU Retail Sales m/m (0.4% expected) - As long as this agrees with the quarterly Ex inflation Retail Sales (0.7% expected), we should see a good move here with the Interest Rate decision just 3 hours afterwards. There should be a lot of eyes on this report and on the AUD/USD during the late Asian session.
If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.

00:30 EST (Monday night/Tuesday Morning) AU Interest Rate Statement (no change at 4.50% unanimously expected) - The RBA has been on hold now since their last hike May 4th and recent rhetoric has shown little indication they plan to budge anytime soon.
--If they hike at all, AUD/USD should rally 50-100 pips.
--If they shift towards a more hawkish stance or allude to future hikes, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
--If they shift from a neutral to dovish tone, AUD/USD may dip 30-50 pips.

That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

To our success!
Sir Pipsalot