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Sir Pipsalot's Wednesday Market Update 06-09-2010

Discussion in 'Commercial Trade Journals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Jun 9, 2010.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey guys,

    It looks like we've showed enough bottom forming to encourage buying EUR/USD on dips. In fact, a long here now at 1.1950 with a 100 pip SL and 150 pip TP looks alright as it is starting to channel with higher lows and higher highs with that run above 1.2000 today.

    On stocks, it looks like we may get one more bounce before the big break, so I'm standing by my 1075-1085 sell range for S&P 500. Same trade from Monday:
    A break of 1035 on the S&P as I've been reiterating will be a major long term significant break that will confirm things enough to get me to enter a long term short trade looking for 100's of pips of follow-through over the next several months.

    In news Wednesday:

    1700 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/Statement (0.25% hike to 2.75% expected) - 13 out of 15 economists surveyed are expecting the RBNZ to hike rates again for the first time since mid 2007. The futures market is pricing in a 28% chance they'll keep rates unchanged. This hike was more of a sure bet weeks ago, but now with the current risk aversion and debt concerns plaguing the market, there's a definite chance the RBNZ may disappoint.
    --If they hike rates to 2.75% and issue a resolute statement that impies further hikes are coming soon, NZD/USD should rally 50+ pips.
    --If they hike rates to 2.75% but imply their tightening path is not a sure bet and could be quite slow, NZD/USD will initially rally up but then sell off hard on the commentary, so sell into the rally or catch it turning south.
    --If they leave rates unchanged at 2.50%, NZD/USD should sell off quickly for 50+ pips and the statement won't be quite as crucial to the trade.

    2130 AU Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (20K & 5.4% expected) - Careful on this one because both numbers are fairly equally important. I'd initially look towards the Employment Change figure (typically creates the initial spike), but then make sure Unemployment Rate agrees, and if it doesn't, consider getting in the opposite direction.
    --If Emp. comes out 40K or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
    --If Emp. comes out 0K or negative, AUD/USD should fall 40-50 pips.
    --If UR comes out at 5.6% or higher, AUD/USD should drop 40-50 pips.
    --If UR comes out at 5.2% or lower, AUD/USD should rally 40-50 pips.
    --If the two numbers point in conflicting directions, the move will likely be muted initially towards the Emp # then towards UR.

    That's all for today's update. If you'd like to learn more about trading or trade along with myself and my collegues, come join us at Profit Mongers. Our subscription is very reasonable at $179 per month, and right now you can sign up for a 2 week trial to get started for only $29. This offer is for new customers only. If you have any questions, you can also email me at sirpipsalot@profitmongers.com

    To our success!
    Sir Pipsalot
     

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