1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

What made those fairly large SPIKES today at 0530GMT Asian Sessions?

Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by RahmanSL, Feb 6, 2012.

  1. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,517
    Likes Received:
    202
    Anybody have any news or explanations on what made those fairly large spikes at around 0530GMT during Asian trading session???

    I took some fairly large short positions on the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/JPY....but have closed out the EUR/USD & AUD/JPY at 30-50 pips. There were, of course, many other currencies pairs that were good trades, but I didn't take them as I don't want to over extend my account.

    The others are still running in good profits, and I am not sure when to close them out.
     
  2. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2007
    Messages:
    19,668
    Likes Received:
    2,206
    I'm not sure what's going on. Things look pretty choppy. BTW - Looks kind of like a pennant of some sort on the 1 hour chart for AUDUSD. If you're still short, I hope your stops aren't too wide.
     
  3. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,517
    Likes Received:
    202
    "If you're still short, I hope your stops aren't too wide."

    On the contrary my friend, profits has been especially fantastic;) ...and I have even added more short positions on the AUD/USD, but STILLL very much unsure when I should or am supposed to close these profitable positions out.
    I am comfortable trading the AUD/USD as the Aussie's economy is very much dependent on exports and when their currency go up to a certain level as it is doing now, it will come down again in a hurry. This despite their PM saying that the AUD will be strong in years to come...but what the PM didn't mentioned was "..but NOT this strong as it's bad for Australia GDP".

    But these are certainly not normal forex times and it took a simple (and rather silly too in my opinion) announcement from Greek officials yesterday saying "Greece is working on final bailout documents" and the EUR/USD headed for six heavens.
    I think "some people" are doing that on purpose as there were reports that the EUR/USD were very heavily shorted and these rally upwards are designed specifically to take out SL. BUT the big question is, now that the EUR/USD is way up there at the 1.325-1.326 areas, more speculative traders will most definitely short it (I did too), what will "these people" do next? Drive it to the 1.34-1.35 areas???

    Yes my friend, these are not normal forex trading times, but interesting!

    Hope you too made good profits from these abnormal tradings?;)
     
  4. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2007
    Messages:
    19,668
    Likes Received:
    2,206
    I'm still leaning in the bullish direction on AUD/USD. Like all things, it won't go in a straight line, but overall I've got more faith in their economy than in that of Europe or the USA. Yes, EU and US won't buy as many Aussie commodities, but there are some other buyers on the market.
     
  5. AsstModerator

    AsstModerator FPA Forums and Reviews Admin

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    5,404
    Likes Received:
    1,091
    Two of the FPA's senior members having a debate over the direction of the market. This should be interesting. :)
     
  6. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,517
    Likes Received:
    202
    Yes, I think most investor have more confidence in the AUD than the USD and the Euro.
    However, like I have posted earlier, I believe the Aussie do not want their currency to be too strong as that's bad for their export economy. And yes, they have other large trading partners, especially Japan, China, Korea, & the Asian Pacific region, but the problem is quite a number of these trading partners have their currencies pegged to the USD and a weak USD means a weaker local currencies which in turn makes imports from Aussie land rather expensive. Unless and until these countries get their currencies un-pegged from the USD the Aussie have a dilemma on their currency. And they have a pretty strong rival from Kiwi land & South American countries just waiting to fill in the import requirements of these countries.
    As it is, China has been heavily investing directly in Argentina & Brazil for their agricultural import requirements.

    For the Euro, also like I have posted above, some people are yanking it up to clear those short traders out and they are looking for any silly excuse to do that in any which way they can without being accused of manipulating the Euro.

    Any good news from the US are literally taken with a pinch of salt these days due to this being election year and all which makes these news unreliable and untrustworthy. As some analyst have posted, the increase in employment figue is due to extra hiring of pimps, prostitutes, and drug pushers...and another remarked that the drop in unemployment is due to workers leaving the work force.
    But the USD is still very much sought after since many foreign currencies are pegged to it, external trades are conducted with it, commodities and, of course, the all important oil are pegged to it....plus, the US of A is still the most powerful nation on this third rock from the sun :p

    ==========================

    Assistant Moderator:
    Yes, surprise, surprise ;)...we senior FPA (unpaid officers too :p) actually do trade the forex and know a little bit about the market too:p

    BTW, what's your opinion on currencies these days??? Or have you retired from trading the forex????:p
     
  7. Pharaoh

    Pharaoh Colonel

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2007
    Messages:
    19,668
    Likes Received:
    2,206
    I'm sure the RBA will try to slow down the appreciation of the AUD, but that's like trying to scoop a few handfuls of water into a boat that's sitting next to the wreck of the Titanic. The Euro and USD are having a race to see who can blow out all investor confidence fastest. Sure, a full meltdown in the US and Europe will hurt Australia (along with everyone else), but it will hurt the USD and EUR a lot worse.

    Of course, my carry trades would be doing even better if the RBA would sit back and let nature take its course.
     
  8. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,517
    Likes Received:
    202
    Yup correct! The EZ & the US indeed seems to be competing with who can come out with the worst news.
    Only difference is that any sort of not-so-bad news in the EZ is taken to be GOOD news....while any goods news in the US is taken with a shrug and "So what??
    Good example was yesterday's better than expected US employment data. The market took some time to react as though reluctant to believe the figure is correct. If that was a EZ news, I bet the market would have spiked right up to thy-kingdom-come

    =========================
    Well, the AUD has gone down quite a bit and spoiling my plans for it if & when it does "dare" to go to the 1.09-1.10 levels :p
     
  9. AsstModerator

    AsstModerator FPA Forums and Reviews Admin

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2007
    Messages:
    5,404
    Likes Received:
    1,091
    Oh good. You two are still at it. I'll see if I can get someone to start selling popcorn.

    I've been trading a few Canadian crosses lately. I hope Australia doesn't reign in their currency value too much since I'm long on the AudCad.
     
  10. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    2,517
    Likes Received:
    202
    You traded long on the AUD/CAD????? Why would you want to do that unless you want to hold that like forever???
    Oil price is pretty high and Canadian have plenty of that stuffs to go round.

    Also on the W4, D1, W1, & MN charts shows there is plenty more room at the bottom than at the top:p

    Ah yes, that Ruler-of-Upper& Lower-Nile (and slave master of poor old Moses' people) pops in once in a while to take his mind off from developing the super-duper EA based on ancient technologies rumored to be a gift from ancient astronauts which have been lost but are recorded somewhere in one of the great pyramids of Giza :p
     

Share This Page