Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar triangle consolidation after bullish breakout

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A. Lower Fib targets could be in reach if price manages to break below the low (purple line). A larger daily/weekly triangle (wave d green) is taking place, which could become unlikely if price manages to become very impulsive (then a larger weekly downtrend could be restarting).

1 hour

Five waves (green) are visible within bearish wave C (blue) which could indicate the end of the downtrend. A break below the bottom (green) could indicate a continuation towards the Fibonacci levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is moving in between support and resistance and building a contracting triangle. The Cable is now challenging the support trend line (green). A break below it could see price develop a bearish breakout to retest the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue). A break above resistance (orange) could see the development of a wave Y (blue) within wave 4 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wedge and has support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines nearby which offer bounce and break spots.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a sideways zone in front of the daily top (brown) and will need to break above the previous wave 1 (purple) before a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple) can start.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 waves (green) as expected and price has in the meantime made a pullback towards the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. A breakout above resistance (red) could start the wave 3 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD builds lengthy triangle but USD/JPY restarts bullish trend

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a downtrend and building lower lows and lower highs. At the moment price is building a small sideways consolidation zone. A break below the support (green) could price fall towards 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave d (green), which is part o f a larger daily/weekly triangle (wave d green). If price manages to fall very impulsively then a larger weekly downtrend could be restarting.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is in a wave 4 (green) unless price manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3. A break below support could see the start of wave 5 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is moving in between support and resistance and building a contracting triangle. The Cable is now challenging the support trend line (green). A break below it could see price develop a bearish breakout to retest the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue). A break above resistance (orange) could see the development of a wave Y (blue) within wave 4 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a wedge and has support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines nearby which offer bounce and break spots.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a sideways zone in front of the daily top (brown) but price seems to breaking above the previous wave 1 (purple), which could confirm the start of a larger uptrend (wave 3 purple).

1 hour

https://s9.postimg.org/t41tgbu2n/25_10_2016uj1.png

The USD/JPY broke above resistance (dotted red) and seems to have started wave 3 (green/brown) unless price breaks below the support trend line (green). Price is expected to build a shallow wave 4 correction once wave 3 (green) has been completed.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD turn sharply and open bullish ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke below the support (green) but price did now move far before a strong 4 hour bullish candle appeared. A bullish bounce could be possible despite the downtrend when considering the presence of divergence (purple lines) and the fact that price is still at a 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break above the resistance trend lines (light orange) could confirm the development of a wave d (green) on the daily chart, which is part of a larger weekly triangle.

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a wave 4 and 5 within wave C (blue). The bullish momentum has been labelled as a wave A (purple) and the Fibonacci levels could be important if a bullish ABC zigzag (purple) indeed materializes.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support (dotted green) of the contracting triangle and indeed fell towards the next Fibonacci level of wave X (blue) which was the 78.6% Fib level. For the moment the bearish breakout seems to be part of a larger correction (WXY blue) rather than the restart of the downtrend.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is also showing the potential for an ABC zigzag (orange). At the moment the bullish momentum has been labelled a wave A (orange). A zigzag is invalidated if price breaks below the bottom of wave A (100% Fib of wave B vs A).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is attempting to break the sideways correction and daily top (brown) but the breakout has so far been choppy. A deeper correction however will most likely find support within wave 4 (blue) at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could build a bearish ABC (brown) zigzag unless price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level, which would indicate a potential for uptrend continuation.

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[Admiral Markets]

Key resistance EUR/USD at 1.10 and GBP/USD at 1.2250

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce despite the downtrend but was so far unable to break above the first resistance trend line (orange). A breakout above resistance could see price continue higher as part of wave e (green), which is a larger triangle on the daily and weekly charts. A breakout below support (green) could price fall towards the next Fibonacci support.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag as expected yesterday (blue). This is most likely part of a larger correction indicated by the WXY (purple). A breakout above resistance (orange) could price move towards Fib targets.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD showed a bullish bounce back to the resistance zone (orange), which seems to be part of a larger WXY (blue) correction.

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed an ABC zigzag (grey) as expected. A new bearish zigzag (grey) could take price back to the Fibonacci support levels of wave X (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in a small triangle with support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines nearby. A bearish retracement could see price bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could break above resistance (red) which would indicate a chance for price to continue with its uptrend momentum.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY uptrend breaking multiple resistances with Fib targets in vision

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a small triangle (green/orange lines) after having made a bullish bounce within a larger downtrend. A breakout above the resistance trend line (orange) could start a larger correction within wave e (green), which is a larger triangle on the daily and weekly charts. A breakout below support (green) could price fall towards the next Fibonacci support.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a bearish ABC zigzag (green). A breakout above resistance (orange) could price move towards Fib targets as part of a wave C (blue) whereas a bearish breakout below support (green) could see price fall towards the next 78.6% Fib. A break below the bottom and 100% Fib is needed before the downtrend is active.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a new triangle (red/green lines), which seems to be part of a larger WXY (blue) correction. Once wave 4 (green) is completed a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support (wave 5 blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed a bearish ABC zigzag (grey) yesterday as expected. A new bearish zigzag (grey) could take price back to the resistance zone (red/orange). A break below support (green) still has to deal with the Fibonacci support levels but a break below the bottom could see price challenge the 1.20 round level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke multiple resistance levels (dotted lines), including a daily top. The chart is now confirming a higher high and is continuing with its uptrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could break above resistance (red) which would indicate a chance for price to continue with its uptrend momentum towards the Fibonacci targets. A bull flag pattern could develop at this point, which is expected to be part of a wave 4 (brown). In that case price is likely to go sideways or stay above the 50% (max 61.8%) Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bullish zigzag with Fibonacci targets above trend line

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the triangle (dotted orange) and is expanding the bullish correction, which makes it more likely that a continuation of the daily triangle via wave d-e (green) is occurring. For the moment this correction has been labelled WXY (brown).

1 hour

The EUR/USD breakout above resistance (red) has seen price move towards the Fib targets as part of a wave C (blue). At the moment a wave 3-4 (green) could still be taking place within wave C (blue) as long as price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and support trend line (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a triangle (red/green lines) as part of a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a large consolidation and could continue to build zigzags between support and resistance. A break above or below support or resistance lines could indicate a potential for price to move towards Fib targets or continue with the larger trend.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend saw a sturdy pullback last week but price is still above shallow Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue). As long as price stays above the 50% Fib a wave 4 correction (blue) seems likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a larger expanding correction within wave 4 (blue) via an ABC (brown). A bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level seems likely. If price does not make a deeper retracement to the 38.2% Fib, then I would expect a triangle formation (purple arrows) to emerge. A break above the top could also indicate a breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar bullish and bearish bounces within triangle chart pattern

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bullish correction (wave W) could be part of a larger daily triangle via a wave d-e (green) unless price breaks below the most recent bottom at 1.0850.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the 61.8% Fibonacci level yesterday. A breakout above resistance (red) could see price move towards the Fib targets as part of a wave C (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a triangle (red/green lines) as part of a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD has continued to build zigzags between support and resistance. Yesterday for instance price bounced at the support trend line and Fibonacci support. A break above resistance (red) would be needed before a potential move towards Fib targets could occur.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend saw a sturdy pullback last week but price is still above shallow Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (blue). A wave 4 correction (blue) seems likely as long as price stays above the 38.2%-50% Fib area.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a larger correction within a wave 4 (blue) via an ABC (brown). A bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level seems likely. If price does not make a deeper retracement to the 38.2% Fib, then I would expect a triangle formation (purple arrows) to emerge. A break above the top could also indicate a breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD strong bullish break and USD/JPY corrective ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bullishness continued to higher levels yesterday. The strong momentum is making a wave 3 (blue) more likely now. All in all the bullish trend is probably part of a wave d-e (green) daily triangle.

1 hour

The EUR/USD breakout above resistance (red) took place as indicated yesterday. The bullish momentum has been marked as wave 3 (orange) and a wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (blue) could be completed as price approaches the Fib targets. In such a scenario a wave 4 (blue) sideways correction like a bull flag could occur.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a triangle (red/green lines) as part of a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD has continued to build zigzags between support and resistance. Yesterday price tried to break above resistance (yellow/red) but failed as price completed a 5th wave (dark red) within an ABC zigzag (purple). At the moment price has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and the other Fib levels could provide support too. A break above resistance could see price move towards the Fibonacci levels of wave Y (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend is seeing a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This is most likely within a wave 4 correction (blue) as long as price stays above the 38.2%-50% Fib area.

1 hour

The USD/JPY indeed completed an ABC zigzag (dark red) correction within a wave 4 (blue) as indicated yesterday. A bullish bounce at the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level seems likely.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bullish breakout continues but 38.2% Fib nearby

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD uptrend showed one more bullish push yesterday but price is now near the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level of wave e (green), which is part of a wave d-e (green) daily triangle. The bullish momentum seems to be a 5 wave (blue) within a larger zigzag (A purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed extended 5 waves (grey) within wave 5 (orange). Price could still push up higher to the Fibonacci targets but eventually a correction (wave 4 blue) is expected.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues to respect a contracting triangle (red/green lines) as part of a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD continues with building zigzags but this time price did manage to break above resistance (dotted red/orange). Price could make a new pullback to support (trend line/Fibs) before moving up higher to the 61.8% Fib for instance of wave Y vs W.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY uptrend saw a bearish pullback develop in recent days but the retracement has been more impulsive than usual wave 4 retracements. However, in my view a wave 4 correction (blue) is still likely as long as price stays above 61.8% Fib area.

1 hour

The USD/JPY ABC zigzag (dark red) correction is still pushing lower. A bullish bounce at the Fibonacci levels could occur.

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[Admiral Markets]

Context of US Dollar momentum within waves and Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD indeed built a bearish bounce yesterday at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The bullish momentum was strong which makes a wave 3 (purple) likely. A retracement for wave 4 (purple) seems to be taking place as price is making a triangle. The wave 4 seems likely as long as price remains above the 50% of wave 4 vs 3. The wave 5 could be short as price reaches the resistance trend line (red). A bearish correction could take place as the market awaits the US Presidential Election next week Tuesday.

1 hour

The EUR/USD finished a wave 5 (orange) and built an ABC (blue) correction as expected yesterday. A bounce at the support trend line (green) could complete wave C (blue) whereas a break above resistance (red) could see wave 5 continue.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a WXY (blue) correction within wave 4 (green). Once wave 4 (green) is completed, a downtrend continuation is expected to push below support for wave 5 (blue/purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD continued higher yesterday which could either mark complete wave c (grey) or wave 3 (purple), which will partly depend on how price responds in this potential wave 4 (purple). A bull flag chart pattern that stays above the 50% Fibonacci level increases the chance of a wave 4. The wave 5 could be short as price reaches the Fibonacci targets. A bearish correction could take place as the market awaits the US Presidential Election next week Tuesday.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building a first bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (blue). A break above resistance (red) could confirm the breakout for wave 5 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to building a wave 12 (brown) and could be starting the wave 3 (brown). A bull flag pattern would increase chances of continuation.

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