Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD could breakout above bullish range



The EURUSD went down early today towards 1.1400 and was rejected. As I thought, Friday profit taking tanked the pair towards 1.1350 where it showed the range. The pair is still in range however, price action suggests that the range might break.

Why do I say bullish range? Take a look at EMA 89. On Friday it was flat BUT above the ascending 3 touch trend line. Today price spiked from confluence making for another possible long trade and at the same time EMA angle has shifted upward but still above the trend line. However it is still Monday and the price might either break or retrace. If a retracement happens, watch for POC within 1.1370-90 zone ( L3, Ascending Trendline,WPP) where the price should reject towards 1.1453 high with interim resistance at 1.1470. If we don't see a breakout pure H1 momentum or H4 candle close above 1.1470 would target for 1.1528. L5 Weekly target.

Only a break below 1.1325 negates the scenario and the price is back into a downtrend towards 1.1270.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USDCAD symmetrical triangle downside break



The USDCAD continued to drop after a bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trend line and its exposed to more downside risks. On April 17 the meeting of OPEC and Russia will be held to confirm oil production cut backs. So far they have agreed to cut backs as they control 75% of world oil supply. Generally that is good for oil and oil price could keep climbing. Remember CAD is positively correlated to OIL, so OIL up CAD up too, and that means USDCAD down.

Technically we see a symmetrical triangle downside broken with 2 potential POCs. POC 1 is 1.2840-1.2855 zone (L4 previous breakout point, lowest triangle swing point, 23.6) while POC2 is 1.2910-30. (L3,38.2,lower trend line point). Target is 1.2732 and the break of 1.2732 will expose 1.2562 weekly target. I have also included a weekly chart snap shot (top right corner) that confirms my view.

Have in mind that USDCAD is generally OIL driven so any change in the fundamental view for OIL could reflect on USDCAD too. Technically it should remain below the triangle to confirm bearish bias and targets.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUDJPY in full bullish advance mode
April 14, 2016 09:15




Japanese equities are very important for Yen movements and AUDJPY is my favorite along with USDJPY. When foreign investors buy or sell Japanese equities currency-unhedged there is a positive correlation between the Yen and Japanese equities. Translated to common words it means they buy Japanese Equities using Spot rate at the time and so if JPY appreciates / depreciates then it affects the value of the investment for foreigners. So sometimes a foreign investor can buy Japanese Stocks and hedge the JPY component. Remember -Nikkei down - AJ/UJ down too.

Technically AUDJPY is contained within a bullish pennant with strong bullish advance (marked as red rectangles). As long as the pennant holds we could see rejections from the bottom within 83.40-50 zone and a potential breakout of the pennant with 84.11 and 84.45 as targets.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURJPY broke below sideways chop range



EURJPY broke below sideways chop last night when it was announced that OIL production cut back negotiations failed. There was a gap on JPY pairs and today early correction has closed most of gaps. JPY and OIL correlation links back to Risk-off sentiment, as Oil price drops, some sectors of Equities drop. So If Oil is dropping, inflation expectations would drop, which is not necessarily a good thing for Equities. In that environment risk-off prevails, and JPY gets stronger.

Technically EURJPY broke below sideways chop range (red rectangle) and if risk off sentiment prevails EURJPY could reject from POC (50.0, Doji, previous breakout point L3 ) within 122.55-70 else any breakout of 122.90 towards 123.05 zone might put the pair back into the sideways chop range. If we see a rejection 122.14 and 121.72 are targets for another bearish support retest.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBPUSD bullish flag suggests further upside



The GBPUSD has washed off Brexit talks and it is showing an upward momentum on intraday time frames. After better than expected Claimant Count change (Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month) the pair is showing now moment buyers off 1.4345-60 withing a bull flag. If we add the distance of the flag pole to the possible breakout point we can see that the pair might be targeting 1.4477 and only H4 close or H1 momentum above 1.4477 will target 1.4541.

Current momentum is strong and we might see a bullish continuation as flag is suggesting.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

NZDJPY follows the equities as Risk On/Off indicator



NZDJPY is one of the pairs pair that has a strong correlation to equities. Nikkei and DAX are +92/90 correlated to NZDJPY and that is extremely high correlation, so they are moving in the same direction. Most important Yen crosses ( USDJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY) are an excellent Risk ON/OFF indicator. As the lending rate of one currency increases relative to another, investors are attracted to the higher yielding currency.

Technically NZDJPY is bullish but we see an inner trend line that has been broken with H4 perfectly aligned with previous swing. If we see H1 momentum above or H1 close above H4 camarilla pivot, the pair can make a bullish breakout to H5 and that is 77.54. If we see a pullback towards 75.64-80 zone (previous breakout point, bullish order block (A), 50.0,L5) the price could spike from POC towards 76.34 (L3), and further towards the H3 - 76.86. market is currently calm ( as expected ) so we might expect volatile session later during the day. We may expect a movement just before, during Draghi speech today or after.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USDCAD bearish triangle within the consolidation zone



The USDCAD went down as analyzed on a previous Session Recap webinar and CAD was also supported by a good CPI and retail sales. Currently it seems the pair is waiting for FED decision this week and technically we see the range.

USDCAD price action is showing consolidation within the triangle which is also contained withing the consolidation zone (red rectangle). What traders would love to see is a breakout to the downside that would justify the bearish trend. If H1 closes below 1.2678 with a momentum candle or now moment sellers we could see it within 1.2620-00 target zone. Only a h1 momentum candle or 4h close below 1.2592 will mark 1.2530 as next potential target.

Traders should watch for a potential breakout in the trend (bearish) direction as any spike above the interim high (blue rectangle) could spike the pair towards 1.2740 thus making a bearish triangle breakout invalidated.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USDJPY Two Crows keep the pair in range



Today Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen and other FOMC members could give us cues about potential rate hike in June. Market doesn't expect changes in Federal Funds Rate ( 0.50 % vs 0.50 %) decision today so we should focus on the statement itself as it is focused on the future. FOMC members always vote on where to set the target rate. All the individual votes are published in the FOMC statement afterwards.

USDJPY should be observed today as it is clearly in the range set by a Bearish Two Crows pattern. Pre FOMC range is 111.52-110.85. If we see 1h close above H3 camarilla PP or momentum breakout above 111.53 the pair could spike towards 111.85. Breakout below 110.83 should target 110.50 and 110.30. Be careful with ANY positions today as other USD and Yen crosses will be affected too.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUDJPY tanking down after BOJ decision



Yen crosses fell heavily after BOJ decided no to go with more stimulus for now. The drops were direct and that means - VERY strong, without any retracement. Nikkei was slaughtered too. BOJ appeared quite hawkish last night even more than FED(!). The market was surprised by The Bank of Japan holding off on expanding monetary stimulus, investors were expecting more Abenomics which Kuroda failed to deliver.

Technically 82.80-83.00 is POC1 (38.2, historical sellers, inner trend line) and the price should reject after a potential first touch of the zone. However the drop was huge and more substantial retracement is favored. POC2 (EMA89, L4, inner trend line 2) 84.05-20 is another potential bearish rejection zone and if the price retraces in the zone we might also start looking for short opportunities.

So focus is on POC1 and POC2 as the price should reject off these zones. Targets are 82.09 and 81.66.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD is looking determined to break 1.1500



Last week, the dovish FED sent USD in a downward spiral. The weakness in USD is obvious vs EUR, JPY and GBP. I have already warned about the strong GBPUSD, and today we are also witnessing the strength in the Fiber - EURUSD.

The most popular currency pair is gaining ground. Strong MACD suggests a possible breakout of 1.1492 ascending channel that will lead to 1.1507 , 1,1520 and potentially 1.1557 if we see a H1 momentum or candle close above 1.1507. If we see a retracement then 1.1448 and 1.1415 are levels to pay attention to. 1.1448 is the mini channel bottom within the equidistant channel, while 1.1415 shows a confluence with L3, DPP and previous bullish order block (blue rectangle).

At this point the EURUSD is at the top of the channel so pay attention to either breakout or a retracement towards POC1-2.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”