Trying to get this right

[UncleSteve]

Let's discuss learning from mistakes. I did already post this at Babypips, but I finf subtle differences in the audience. I need all the help I can get, and would like feedback on my ideas.

I'm 120 days in, and the trading year is all but over. The exchanges aren't dead yet, but nothing is moving.

I became a trader August 23rd while on vacation, and did very well for about 3 days. I had traded demo for a couple of months but real money made me focus.

I very quickly learned that more indicators is not more success, and discovered Price Action.

Frankly I haven't done that well, but in my day job I'm a systems analyst and I am going to analyze my performance and create a trading plan for January based on the things that worked.

The main thing I have learned is that it is extremely hard to stick to a system, because a system usually stops you from trading (and usually, rightly so!).

For the month of January then, I will stick entirely to 1 system and log my results. I will take into account the stats of my successes to date, develop a plan, and stick to it.

Successful trade features:

Wednesday and Thursday have been my best days

Highest % of wins was between 5-7 AM and 9-10 AM closing after an average of 7.5 hours

Longs on Tuesday & Wednesday were the only trades I averaged a profit

I won over 50% of trades in UJ, EA, NU, GCH, AU, EJ, AJ, EU, GU, AN, GCA, ECH, UCA, ACH, EG



I made a profit on AN, UJ, CACH, NU, ECA, GCA, and UCA only.




Only USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPCAD and USDCAD fall into both categories.



As I said I discovered Price Action, but I didn't really record the signals I found, and sometimes after a loss I couldn't find the ones I had traded.

Plan for January:

I will record the basis / signal name & location for every trade

I will look for signals discussed in various places as the top PA signals (rejection bars etc)

I will trade in line with the 200 SMA on whichever chart I enter, unless it is neutral

I will trade in line with the 10 & 20 EMAs on whichever chart I enter

I will set my risk to 5% of my balance or $10, whichever is more, using $/SLD (dollars divided by stop loss distance)

I will set SL at the last swing + the spread

I will set a trailing stop equal to the distance between entry and stop loss

I will flag weekly swing levels and only enter if entry-to-swing > stop-loss-distance x 4

I will only trade Tuesday night, Wednesday early morning, noon, after work and late at night, Thursday early morning, noon, after work and late at night.

I will trade D1, H4, H1 and M15, and record which chart I used for every trade

I will only trade USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPCAD and USDCAD

I will log the characteristics of my pairs every Wednesday and Thursday before I take any trades


It's hard to discipline myself but I believe this will give me a better shot at success; does anyone else do anything like this?

What do you think?

 

[Pharaoh]

Sounds like a good plan. I look forward to seeing more about it.

 

[Red Herring]

Good idea uncle.
I wish I could do it too and spend some time on this idea.
Happy trading

 

[UncleSteve]

Well, I took a long trade on USDCAD. Calling it Trade 1.

I have committed to write down the reasons for my trades and expose myself to approbation or ridicule...

On Jan 2 0214 At 1513 EST, 200, 10 & 20 EMA's all trending up, and a bullish rejection pinbar formed through the 10 & 20

 

[UncleSteve]

I forgot to mention on my Jan 2 USDCAD long (Trade 1), I set a SL of about 1037 points (IE 103.7 pips) as that lined up with the Dec 12 D1 upswing, the last upswing I could see.

I used a TS of the same amount, which thanks to today's power candle has now gone past breakeven and into profit.

My system has kept me sitting on my hands since that trade; tonight I am also going long on that same power candle. It retraced during the day by 160 points and I took it on Jan 7 2014 at 1745 NY Time (Trade 2). This time the last swing I can see is Dec 30's wash & rinse movement, giving me a SL and a TS of 414 points.

The trend's a bit jiggly but hopefully still has momentum.

Someone pointed out to me that my choice of pairs on this system is really just the trending ones; and not likely to have any correlation with my instinct for the market. Could be; but I'll stick with these pairs for this month and re-evaluate for February.

Below are my charts for January; NZDUSD seems too choppy to be of interest.

 

[UncleSteve]

I wish I could do it too and spend some time on this idea.

I hope this isn't presumptuous, but if this can be useful to anyone here's my spreadsheet:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7IxVCEla6MtY3pJUFg5aXg3Y2M/edit?usp=sharing

The data is just pasted from myfxbook and/or MT4's built-in report generator.

I'd be interested in other analysis ideas anyone comes up with; and any errors you find too!

 

[LoRio]

www.MarkDouglas.com

 

[GOR FX]

I hope this isn't presumptuous, but if this can be useful to anyone here's my spreadsheet:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7IxVCEla6MtY3pJUFg5aXg3Y2M/edit?usp=sharing

The data is just pasted from myfxbook and/or MT4's built-in report generator.

I'd be interested in other analysis ideas anyone comes up with; and any errors you find too!

Hey uncle, are you still trading?
Seems like you had a good start initially.

 

[UncleSteve]

Hey uncle, are you still trading?
Seems like you had a good start initially.

yup, I haven't had time to post but I will update this. So far this year I have taken 6 trades based on this system, with 2 that closed at my stop loss, losing (as described above) $15 each; the other 4 are still open and in profit, and three of them have long since dragged their trailing stops well past the breakeven point.

I know the trailing stop means eventually you earn less than the peak equity on the trade, but that beats even a slight loss hands down! so for the moment I'll stick with it.

I'll post the details and reasons for each trade by the end of the month, and rerun my stats to plan February.

And you? Have you or anyone tried analyzing your history to eliminate the worst trades?

Here's my up-to-date 4 pairs:

 

[GOR FX]

yup, I haven't had time to post but I will update this. So far this year I have taken 6 trades based on this system, with 2 that closed at my stop loss, losing (as described above) $15 each; the other 4 are still open and in profit, and three of them have long since dragged their trailing stops well past the breakeven point.

I know the trailing stop means eventually you earn less than the peak equity on the trade, but that beats even a slight loss hands down! so for the moment I'll stick with it.

I'll post the details and reasons for each trade by the end of the month, and rerun my stats to plan February.

And you? Have you or anyone tried analyzing your history to eliminate the worst trades?

Here's my up-to-date 4 pairs:

View attachment 12894

Ya
I study my trading journals monthly and pay attention to the huge losses and profits. Learn't from the mistakes and successes