Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,685
Morning guys,
EUR shows not big changes compares to our weekend view, but still, some new moments exist. As we've said in weekly report technically EUR keeps nice bullish setup on daily and lower time frames, but fundamental and sentiment situation makes overall context weak and tricky. This is the reason why we've called you to not go long by far, or at least keep close eye on major intraday supports that could work as good indicators of wind change...
On daily bullish context suggests upside action to 1.15 area and this corresponds to harmonic swing retracement. Alternitavely and this is my expectation, we could get 3-Drive "Buy" pattern with 1.12 destination point. Somehow I feel that all this negative background will find way to price during the week. But, let's take a look at the facts that we have. On daily DXY is a grabber, which suggests downside action on EUR. This is major stone in bearish technical context by far.
On 4H chart we see that EUR has formed right arm lows and jumped up, which is good. But here are another two moments that I do not like. First is bearish grabber that suggests drop below the same right arm bottom - in fact, this could lead to failure of H&S pattern. Second - market shows too weak upside action. Following the market mechanics of this pattern, action up from the right arm bottom should be most powerful and definitely this is extension impulse action. But here, price was not able to reach neckline and stopped.
If everything will be OK, indeed price could form, say, upside butterfly, right? But, the same butterfly could be formed down, according with our 3-Drive daily scenario...
On 1H chart market has confirmed the lows by nice butterfly "Buy". If you still want to go long here and missed butterfly - your working swing is upside one from the right arm lows. Here you need to watch for retracement to one of the Fib support for long position taking against the 1.1350 lows.
I don't want to say that this bullish scenario is bad and it will not work. It's OK, at least tehcnically. But speaking on overall context with all this opposite patterns on dollar index, market sentiment and dollar-supportive statistics - it looks weak, at least for me. But taste differs.
Whatever you will decide to do with it - hope you will done well.
EUR shows not big changes compares to our weekend view, but still, some new moments exist. As we've said in weekly report technically EUR keeps nice bullish setup on daily and lower time frames, but fundamental and sentiment situation makes overall context weak and tricky. This is the reason why we've called you to not go long by far, or at least keep close eye on major intraday supports that could work as good indicators of wind change...
On daily bullish context suggests upside action to 1.15 area and this corresponds to harmonic swing retracement. Alternitavely and this is my expectation, we could get 3-Drive "Buy" pattern with 1.12 destination point. Somehow I feel that all this negative background will find way to price during the week. But, let's take a look at the facts that we have. On daily DXY is a grabber, which suggests downside action on EUR. This is major stone in bearish technical context by far.
On 4H chart we see that EUR has formed right arm lows and jumped up, which is good. But here are another two moments that I do not like. First is bearish grabber that suggests drop below the same right arm bottom - in fact, this could lead to failure of H&S pattern. Second - market shows too weak upside action. Following the market mechanics of this pattern, action up from the right arm bottom should be most powerful and definitely this is extension impulse action. But here, price was not able to reach neckline and stopped.
If everything will be OK, indeed price could form, say, upside butterfly, right? But, the same butterfly could be formed down, according with our 3-Drive daily scenario...
On 1H chart market has confirmed the lows by nice butterfly "Buy". If you still want to go long here and missed butterfly - your working swing is upside one from the right arm lows. Here you need to watch for retracement to one of the Fib support for long position taking against the 1.1350 lows.
I don't want to say that this bullish scenario is bad and it will not work. It's OK, at least tehcnically. But speaking on overall context with all this opposite patterns on dollar index, market sentiment and dollar-supportive statistics - it looks weak, at least for me. But taste differs.
Whatever you will decide to do with it - hope you will done well.