Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, April 01 - 05, 2024

Greetings everybody,

So, gold was going with the 2nd scenario of 3-Drive "Sell" pattern that we've mentioned briefly. Now situation on gold market stands so that it is too risky to sell. Of course, we could discuss common technical analysis practice and make conclusions that now they are partially working due to strong driving factors.

Yesterday J. Powell was a bit more dovish than usual, while escalation between Iran and Israel is at the edge to turn to hot stage. In such situation, few who care about technical signals. Yes, we will share with them, but recognize the risk if you still decide to go short. We call to not sell on daily and above time frames, while intraday sells are possible but with tight control.

Thus, on daily/weekly market still stands overextended. In nearest two days everything depends on NFP data and avoiding of Iran-Israel escalation. Both positive results could trigger the pullback here according to technical picture. Otherwise, especially if escalation starts, it could keep raising, ignoring any technical issues. Our next upside target as you know is 2456$ (difficult to believe that we start calling such numbers...)
First downside reaction hardly will be lower than 2200$ area on daily chart.

On 4H chart I would watch for ~2245-2255$ area. FIrst is, because we have K-support here:

Second is, because of 1H 3-Drive "Sell" pattern. Its minimal target stands at the low between 2nd and 3rd drives, which agrees with the K-area:

So, bears could consider this setup, but be extra careful and recognize risks that we've mentioned above. You need a kind of luck here in a way of strong NFP at least, but better together with the relief on geopolitical stage to succeed.
Greetings everybody,

So, Gold has accurately completed minimal target of 3-Drive "Sell". Now this trade is done. This tells us about the strength of Gold now. Because reaction down is minimal despite the pattern and weekly/daily overbought.

It makes us think that next week upside action could be re-established. Another reason is political one. On 9th of April the Ramadan month is over and Iran could make a response to Israel starting 11th of April, i.e. in the middle of the next week:

Still today the scenario with slightly deeper retracement is possible, if we get strong NFP for example. Let's have a look. Next strong support area is around 2250K

3-Drive is done, but now we could recognize possible H&S on top. Thus, if it starts working, downside target will be right around 2250K area. So this pattern could help us to get it right. If it starts working - we get deeper retracement. If market will keep climbing back to 2300$ instead - no deeper retracement happens and we should be ready for upside continuation.

Depending on what you want to do - make corresponding preparations. In fact, bears have to make a decision on position taking right now, because gold already at the point of the right arm. Bulls have to wait because no clear signs of failure by far. And they could get the signal only next week...