Gold GOLD PRO WEEKLY, April 08 - 12, 2024

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA

Gold in recent 2-3 weeks has become the most mysterious asset. It shows unprecedented growth, even under impact of strong US data and raising US Dollar. Obviously this is not the market factor, this is external demand. Rally on gold market has accelerated recently, and some analysts suggest that partially it could be because of L. Summers article about 18% inflation in the US that has become public. This event is very important. Such things never happen occasionally. More negative publications appear on US debt situation. This is slow process of public mind transformation, preparing opinion for bad times. On this background, gold remains one of the flawless assets for investments (if not the only one at all).

Market overview

Gold prices hit fresh all-time peaks on Monday with stocks on Wall Street closing mixed as optimism that the Federal Reserve was near to cutting interest rates faded due to a strong U.S. economy that rebuts the need for cuts anytime soon. The dollar rose after data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time since September 2022. What had been an optimistic reading of key U.S. inflation last week soon darkened as the market weighed the strength of the U.S. economy versus the need for immediate rate cuts.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 9.2 basis points to 4.712%. The 10-year's yield rose 12.3 basis points to 4.317%, after earlier touching a two-week high of 4.337%.
The three government measures of U.S. inflation – CPI, PPI and PCE – show improvement has leveled off, leading to questions about when and by how much the Fed cuts, said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree in New York. The markets are reassessing what they thought was going to be a very aggressive rate-cut episode," Flanagan said. Whether they go in June or July, whatever, what is it going to look like? Right now, the data would be showing you that it's not going to be uniform."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that inflation data released that day "is what we were expecting" and that "you won't see us over-reacting," suggesting the U.S. central bank is content to remain in wait-and-see mode. Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York, said the Fed does not want to relive the 1970s when it cut too soon and inflation reignited.
"The potential for a cut keeps getting pushed off because Powell says almost with a giddy tone that this is a great environment. Interest rates are above average, not wildly above, but above average. It's better to keep those cuts in your pocket."

Growing rate cut expectations, safe-haven demand and central bank purchases amid geopolitical tensions have boosted gold by more than 8% this year.
However, the dollar rose 0.5% to a more than four-month peak against rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while yields on 10-year Treasury notes also climbed. Bullion prices have also hit record highs in other currencies, including the euro, the yuan, Japanese yen, Indian rupee and the British pound sterling.
"(Fed officials) will probably caution the market that they don't necessarily have to get aggressive on cuts. There's no guarantee that the U.S. central bank will start cutting rates, and I think they'll make that quite apparent and that may cause some reversals here," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

Gold scaled yet another record peak on Tuesday as traders snapped up the safe haven asset amid growing Middle East tensions, largely ignoring a stronger dollar and tempered bets for U.S. rate cuts. Iran vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said an underlying bid from retail and central banks was being joined by momentum-following speculators who have extended their already elevated longs following gold's break above $2,200.
"We're seeing some safe-haven demand flowing into gold, which relates to the Israeli strikes on Iran's embassy in Syria," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. The latest leg up in gold prices is probably also associated with short covering from family offices and proprietary trading shops, Ghali added.
"What makes the gold rally so unusual is that it is occurring despite significant traditional headwinds with the U.S. dollar rising, Treasury yields rising, the likelihood of higher for longer U.S. rates increasing," said independent analyst Ross Norman.
But while the gold market remains in a "highly bullish mood", it probably needs to consolidate amid a shift back to a more hawkish view of Federal Reserve policy, said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that recent readings on job gains and higher-than-expected inflation do not materially change the overall picture of economic policy this year. Powell said that "if the economy evolves broadly as we expect," he and his Fed colleagues largely agree that a lower policy interest rate will be appropriate "at some point this year." Investors still expect a first rate cut at the Fed's June 11-12 policy meeting, even as stronger recent economic data has sown investor doubts about that outcome.
"The likelihood of rate cuts is still there, but the data is still really strong. This is an election year, so I don't think the Fed will want to be held accountable for any kind of market crash," said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.
"Gold surged to yet another historic high on elevated trading volume after Powell stresses that 'bumps' in the road don't change the overall rosy picture," said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Powell's customary cautious approach doesn't worry gold bulls...I think bulls want to see $2,300 and I think more 'tourists' are getting involved in the trade."

On Thursday data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week as labor market conditions gradually ease.

An upgraded gold price forecast for 2024 from Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at Swiss gold refinery MKS PAMP, drew an unexpected follow-up question this week from market participants. The enquiry was: "Will or can gold 'go cocoa'?" Cocoa prices have more than doubled since the start of 2024 due to poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Meanwhile, spot gold , a much more global and liquid market, hit record highs on five previous trading sessions as investors jumped in looking for exposure to the metal used to preserve wealth.
"There is almost zero probability gold can replicate those gains in that amount of time," Shiels said. "One cannot de-stock chocolate bars at the same rate as one can de-stock gold bars," she said. Her forecast for the 2024 average gold price was raised by $150 to $2,200 an ounce.

While cocoa price growth is driven by supply shortage, the gold market is protected by significant stocks held by individuals and reserves of central banks, which own one-fifth of all the gold ever mined. However, while the market may not exactly "go cocoa", analysts retain a bullish tone even as technically the market feels ripe for hefty falls due to it being overbought.
"It is hard to say where values are going to top out as there are no resistance "signposts" on the charts," said Marex analyst, Edward Meir.
Over-the-counter and futures gold markets have been buoyant, with an estimated 40% rise in trading volumes, said Johan Palmberg, senior quantitative analyst at the World Gold Council.
"And there is outsized activity in the gold options market, in comparison with the likes of equities and bonds, which implies that the current interest is specifically in gold."
Further out, many analysts expect gold to test new highs once the U.S. Federal Reserve starts cutting key rates triggering demand from investors sitting on the sidelines such as holders of physically-backed gold exchange traded funds (ETFs).
"We had previously proposed a $2,400 per ounce price estimate if the Fed cut rates in the first quarter of 2024; we commit to that estimate for this year, even if rate cuts come later," analysts at BofA said in a note.

The metal’s positive prospects have been endorsed by a slew of leading banks. Among them, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said last month that gold was its No. 1 pick in commodities markets, and the price may reach $2,500 an ounce this year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it sees potential for $2,300, highlighting the benefits from a lower interest-rate environment.

Gold is the No. 1 pick in commodities markets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the price has the potential to reach $2,500 an ounce this year, according to the bank’s global head of commodities research.
“We believe that $2,500 is a possibility” Natasha Kaneva said during a Bloomberg TV interview. “Because the market tends to get overexcited.” To achieve that price target, “we need a confirmation from continued moderation in the inflation and in the jobs numbers as well and the confirmations that the Fed indeed is cutting,” said Kaneva.

Why Gold is raising?

Speaking commonly about reasons, it makes sense to put here the ones from Jonathan Awde, president and CEO of Dakota Gold Corp. At a recent small-cap stock investing conference put on this week by the equity research firm Sidoti & Company, he took a moment to lay out all the reasons that he thought gold was doing so well lately:

“Over the last couple of years, you’ve seen record central bank buying. You’ve really seen a couple of key shifts happening. You’ve seen this dedollarization shift where a lot of countries are looking to settle transactions in something other than U.S. dollars.”

“You’re seeing this move from West to East, where historically speaking, a lot of Western countries have been countries were gold was stored. And this is now changing because of what happened with Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. imposing sanctions on Russia. A lot of countries are saying, all right, we’ve seen your playbook. We don’t want to have gold stored in other countries. We want to have gold stored in our own country. So in case we have or do something that goes against your foreign policy, we don’t have our gold confiscated.”

“You know, the U.S. government is running at an unsustainable pace of $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion annually in deficits, almost $1 trillion on military, and close to $1 trillion a year on interest payments to service the debt. So at some point, this is not sustainable.”

“I think the U.S. dollar will also get ahead and historically has an inverse relationship with gold. So I think the setup is there and I think it’s a really interesting time to be looking at gold if you currently have no exposure.”

These are most common things that come in mind, but there other drivers exist that are not as obvious. Things that we were talking two weeks ago have turned to public sphere. Analysts on Bloomberg points the same - it is not typical gold behavior, when it ignores as US Dollar rally as increasing of US Yields. What is more interesting that gold’s record run has yet to attract investors who favor exposure to the metal through physically backed exchange-traded funds. Worldwide holdings in such ETFs shrank by more than 100 tons year-to-date, hitting the lowest level since September 2019, according to a Bloomberg tally..

History shows that active purchases of the dollar, which is observed now, simultaneously with actively growing gold, is a very atypical situation. Usually everyone starts running into gold after everyone has first fled to dollar assets, and then all other financial assets like non-bonds and shares become unclear in terms of risks. Well, that is, usually after some kind of financial crisis, when all the speculators were thrown out of gold and had to sell it in order to close the holes in their balance sheet.


It means that demand comes from some different source. What's going on? There are few reasons for that. First is, let's start from the most obvious ones. Starting from traditional sources of gold support - Central Banks are keep buying it. The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council shows central banks continued adding to their gold holdings in February, albeit at a slower pace than before. They bought a net 19 tons, marking the ninth straight month of growth.

Gold demand in China has been pronounced in recent quarters. The nation’s central bank has added substantial volumes of bullion to its reserves, boosting holdings in each of the past 16 months. In addition, gold-buying has been gaining in popularity among younger Chinese.

Second reason among most obvious is deterioration of the US economy. Not necessary that economist believe in total crush, but raising risk forces managers to search for protection and low volatility assets to balance portfolios. Gold is setting record prices, silver is following next, reaching multi-year highs in anticipation of a new surge in inflation. The US Treasury and banks are on fire with 500Bln+ potential loss on US Bonds exposure, and the Fed now is becoming a pocket tool of the US budget department. Without waiting for inflation to stabilize, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell intends to cut the rate three times by the end of the year. This means that the department chose a pro-inflationary dollar scenario in order to stabilize the banking system and preserve the government’s exorbitant budget spending.

The transition to lowering the rate has been synonymous over the last 15 years with the issue of dollars for the purchase of bonds on the market. This practice will probably resume before the end of the year, since without new trillions out of thin air it will not be possible to reduce the yield on American bonds. The US banking system can no longer tolerate losses from the depreciation of bond portfolios, and the American budget's spending on debt servicing this year exceeded $1.1 trillion. If the rate remains the same, according to BOfA calculations, the figure will fly to $1.6 trillion. Therefore, we need to put out the fire until the building collapsed.

Now we turn to not quite obvious reasons. All things mentioned above are clear and logical from common sense point of view. Another interesting reason why gold is rising is the withdrawal of gold reserves from Western countries due to geopolitical risks. It would seem that these are just flows of physical gold that were lying in storage and waiting in the wings, why does the movement of gold affect the price? Apparently, those who stored this gold did not just store it, but borrowed it from someone, sold it or took out loans against it, and now, when this gold is taken from their storage, they have to get volumes from the market directly in order to cover their obligations. Apparently, the last 15 years were not enough to expand the entire conditional “short” that was built between central banks around gold, so the longer the trend towards such a demarcation between central banks continues, the higher gold will grow. Well, until individuals will be reach it either. And they probably do not yet, as ETF storages are decreasing.

Let's go further. Large speculators increased their bets on gold to a four-year high according to WGC. In the week leading up to April 2, large speculators like hedge funds increased their net long position in gold futures and options by 13%, bringing it to its highest level since 2020. This was announced on Friday, April 5, by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

But they are not the only ones who are interested in the precious metal: the Bank of China has been buying gold for 17 consecutive months, and the volume of the precious metal in its reserves has reached 72.74 million ounces. Interest in the precious metal is growing not only on the part of speculators: on Friday, Beijing published official statistics, from which it follows that the Bank of China has been buying gold for 17 consecutive months. In March, the volume of precious metal in its reserves reached 72.74 million ounces. February was the ninth consecutive month of net gold purchases by global central banks,according to the World Gold Council.

What we would like to say that if even speculators have begun to become interested in gold, then expect trouble. Not in the sense that growth will stop. On the contrary, growth may even accelerate if they continue to increase their positions in gold. But for the truth sake, as soon as a trigger occurs that triggers the acute phase of a financial crisis, speculators, as has historically always happened in such conditions, will begin to sell gold to cover losses or increased collateral requirements in leveraged positions. This, of course, will not discourage central banks from buying gold, they have a different motivation, they are not buying it right away because of rising prices, but it will add nervousness to slightly less conservative investors and speculators.

Silver also is trying to not lag too far behind. If the main precious metal - gold - staged a rally in early March, then silver is clearly late in this cycle. ️Now an attempt has been made to speed up, especially since there is an attack on the important level of $26, which last year acted as a clear limiter. Silver is still far from its all-time highs it reached in 1980 and then repeated in 2011, and it is very cheap compared to gold as we've explained two weeks ago. Positions in silver are growing also and we consider it as good add-on to Gold investments:

Making general bottom line of all things said - media agencies, Bloomberg in particular, knows how to be tactful when he wants: the US economy is in danger due to the budget crisis, but not right now, but in 10 years. Although everyone understands perfectly well that if nothing is changed, the system will not last even two years. Is it possible to change something? The question remains open, we will find out after the presidential elections in the United States. In this case, we see the same story as with Summers’ recent coming out on inflation - we need to take a strategically advantageous position for a very likely early change of shoes. This is what risk management looks like in media.

If we still talk about the crisis, then the ratio of oil to gold and DOW can give us a hint. We've covered this topic in details few months ago. The gold/oil ratio was:
  • Two years ago - 16.4,
  • a year ago - 22.5,
  • now it’s already 25.5.

When we reach level 30, we can say that the crisis is with us in full force.
We are heading exactly there, in a year we will quite likely reach the grandmaster milestone. At the same time, the DOW/gold ratio has changed little over these two years and is still at quite comfortable levels (in a crisis it should not be 17, but something around 10-12). I believe that gold will definitely rise further, especially against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and oil prices, which clearly intend to reach $100 again, as JP Morgan said.
By the way, combining together all JP Morgan expectations of 2500$ for gold, 100$ for Crude Oil and 4200 for S&P it is a feeling that the capital in the case of a stocks falling will go to other asset classes. And if the most speculative capital can go into crypto to a greater extent, then fairly obvious assets with the current trend in them are also gold, both a less speculative and more defensive asset, and oil. Well, since we believe in the manipulation of JP Morgan's luck in predicting asset prices, it is worth paying attention to the fact that they “do not rule out an increase in the price (approx. WTI, of course) to $100/barrel.” Maybe they will be on spot. Using simple math calculations you could estimate 2500-3000$ Gold range following Gold-to-Oil ratio. This is interestingly agrees with their 2500$ expectations, right?

Although some, like Commerzbank, caution that increasing uncertainty over Fed cuts will be a headwind for the metal.
“We doubt that the Fed will embark on a pronounced easing cycle and therefore see limited further upside potential for gold in the medium term,” Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen told clients on Wednesday.

But the same 3000$ level is mentioned by other analysts, say the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg. Move over doubters, because our call of the day from the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, David Rosenberg, sees gold headed to $3,000 or even higher, and not just driven by the Fed.
“With an easing cycle on the horizon, global growth weak and looking weaker, and inflation on its last leg of decline, we’re of the view that the tailwinds blowing gold to new highs are about to get a lot stronger,” said Rosenberg, in a note to clients.

He points to increased demand by global central banks fretting about China’s yuan and an overreliance on the dollar, and strong appetite by retail gold markets, such as a booming India. And western investors have yet to turn bullish, pulling money out of gold exchange-traded funds. Others have also noted how big money managers are under-invested in the commodity sector overall. Tight supply conditions and gold’s haven reputation are also positives, said Rosenberg. The veteran strategist offers up a handful of price scenarios.
  • Under the first, a recession-free “soft landing” sends global real interest rates back to their long-run average since 2000, knocking 12% off the dollar and boosting gold by 10%.
  • In the second, a “typical” bear market sends interest rates back to the 2014-2024 average and the dollar 8% lower, meaning 15% upside for gold around $2,500.
  • The ultra bullish scenario that would push it to $3,000 or beyond hinges on a few key factors. First and foremost, a further ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions — Taiwan, Middle East, Russian borders, Korea, Venezuela/Guyana, just the “predictable ones,” would send investors fleeing for the perceived safety of the commodity, said Rosenberg.
“Deteriorations in financial conditions in addition to the impact of interest rates (such as higher spreads driven by rising corporate defaults) would spur on gold too. Finally, repeated and increasingly dire warnings over the fragile state of the U.S. fiscal position can only support bullion buyers,” said Rosenberg.
The conclusion for investors is simple: any well-diversified portfolio should contain gold, and, at present, we’d recommend an aggressive overweight. That will act as a hedge against geopolitical and fiscal risks, offer a safe harbor against a breakdown in the equity bull-run, and give positive exposure to the coming easing cycle and period of dollar weakness. Don’t be afraid to go in at current levels,” says Rosenberg.

And for those investors who think maybe gold’s run has gone far enough? Trader Simon Ree, founder of Tao of Trading options academy school, offers a technical outlook on why gold investors shouldn’t bail yet — “Shorting at rocket ships is always pretty risky.”


No need to tell that we have bullish context - trend, acceleration etc. Price is above YPR1. Tactically, on monthly chart we're dealing with reverse H&S on top. OP is done, the next one is XOP around 2565$.
But price is at Overbought here. Now it is difficult to say how this could help us, because of the driving factors on gold - they are not of a technical nature. But let's hope that at some point we will get moderate pullback.
Another upside target is 1.618 extension on all time chart around 2455$. So, let's focus on these two points for long-term targeting:


As on the monthly chart - here price is overextended as well. We have another local expansion AB-CD. OP is done already, so, XOP stands at 2516 - the same 2455-2565$ target range. Should we buy here? By technical rules - no, because of overbought. Preferably to wait for retracement. But, as we already saw previously - there is no guarantee that it will come, as gold totally ignores all technical reasons by far.


Market is overbought here as well but no signs of weakness by far. Despite solid NFP numbers Friday is bullish reversal session. Here we could say only about 2200-2215$ support area. If pullback starts, we will watch it closely. We could find here a lot of other FIb levels but others are not as interesting. Either because it is too close to overbought market or because they under daily oversold. 2200$ K-area looks perfect for our needs:


While we can't consider long positions on daily and higher time frames due overbought, on intraday charts it is possible. But to keep it safe the profit object has to be around the existed top. If you buy at some intraday pullback - the safe way suggests out around the top, because of overbought. On Friday market has shown H&S "Failure" that was in our trading plan, confirming upside continuation.

On intraday charts we do not have any patterns by far. H&S "Failure" mostly is done as well. That's why, until new patterns will arrive we could trade only trend direction - watching for deeps to predefined Fib levels to buy and out around the top. This is the common strategy. If you search for something more definite - just wait. Now we could show only some Fib levels to keep an eye on:
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Not many things we could add to our weekend strategy. On political front we suggest that recent US delegation visit to China has failed, based on statements that have been made. And we suggest that it is big bullish driver for the gold in long term. We explain why in our weekly report.

Meantime we're coming to CPI and Iran after 10th of April... By taking a look at commodities, no doubts inflation will back in a few months. The 2nd wave is under way already.

Speaking on technical side, we see no other options except intraday trend trading. On daily and above time frames we have no bearish context but market is strongly overbought. This doesn't let us to take any speculative positions. Only if you would like to accumulate physical gold, this is possible, because we think it is still cheap.

That's why for now on 4H chart we're watching for possible grabbers, you do not see them on retail broker chart, while on 1H chart if you are ready for that - you could follow our "trend trading" tactic.

The core is as follows - wait for the minor pullback to predefined level, drop time frame to 5 min chart and watch for reversal action (patterns) and out at previous top. Our 1st attempt has worked nice - market is at previous top. Now we consider three possible levels - 2342$, 2334 K and 2323K. Lower levels are not considered because it this case market will form bearish reversal swing, dropping under 2318 lows.

Once position will be taken - out at previous top. It is great example to the left - retracement was in a way of AB-CD and "222' Buy" right to K area, later it has become a grabber on 4H chart. On 5 min chart it was reverse H&S pattern - just dig it a bit and you'll get it. It is not as difficult as might seem at first glance.
Greetings everybody,

Just brief update, as we do not have many changes today. On daily chart - everything stands the same. For the long term we keep our strategy of gold accumulation and consider any deep as a chance to buy more. Technically we're watching for great upside thrust and possible DiNapoli patterns around. For now we do not have anything yet here:

On 4H chart also we have no patterns, although upward action is slowing:

Tactic of buying at predefined Fib levels and out at top works fine by far, although it is not as simple to apply. Bounce from 2342 also was nice. Now, as we have some bearish signs on EUR and here as well, we consider a bit deeper retracement, at least to 2335 K area.

It is not forbidden to Sell, but we do not consider any bearish positions, because context is bullish and we keep the same tactic by far of buying deeps. The next one that we're watching is 2335$. Let's see what will happen around.

Gold feels the same pressure of higher interest rates, but it shows absolutely phenomenal resistance to it. On daily chart we barely could recognize the retracement. This is the reason that makes us to not consider any short positions, at least on daily and above time frames. Because risks outweigh advantages.

Thus, our plan is to catch deeps for possible long entry. And for now 2280$ looks like a good candidate, showing combination of Fib level and oversold area:

On 4H chart we have Fib levels tree and could recognize the H&S shape on top. It has XOP target precisely around the same 2280$ area

1H chart analysis mostly is for scalp bears. "222" Sell has started well, as it is the feature of gold market - forming "222" at top. Now, if you would like to participate with potential H&S, you do not need many things. All trading process is focused around recent downside swing, which is potential right arm. So, invalidation is its top, right?

Since market is coming to K-area, just wait for some bounce to go short against 2355$ left arm top. That's all...
Greetings everybody,

So, speculators have big headache with long entry. As we've said, gold is driven by non-technical factors, that's why, using technical analysis now is limited. For investing it is no problem, as it stands with no leverage or with the minimal one, but for speculation it is psychologically difficult to buy around the top and at overbought, which might be costly. That's why we suggest that our tactic of "trend trading" is optimal approach right now.

On 1H chart you could see why we do not consider shorts. Yesterday potentially it could be H&S, but later it has failed once gold has jumped above the right arm's top. For now we have only one potential trading setup - B&B "Buy" on daily chart. Thrust looks great, gold could show 3/8 intraday retracement. We see it several of them this week. Thus, 2372 area might be interesting, but probably this will happen on next week already:
Also the South China Sea where China is being more active once again on protecting the Islands it has recently claimed around the Spratly Islands. The Philippines are militarily contesting Chinas claim...the USA will probably get involved. It's all good for Gold!
Also the South China Sea where China is being more active once again on protecting the Islands it has recently claimed around the Spratly Islands. The Philippines are militarily contesting Chinas claim...the USA will probably get involved. It's all good for Gold!
.....and with Iran's dry-run attack on Israel today with slow moving missiles and drones which were easily intercepted by Israel iron dorm defense system and by the USA & their allies, that has potential to escalate into a much wider war.
We all know Iran has hypersonic (and other more sophisticated missiles) in their arsenal which can reach Israel in under 7 minutes that will be next to impossible to intercept, and which will cause significant damage to Israel. Add the untested nuclear weapons that Iran is suspected to have developed and possess, that makes for a very dangerous time in our history. That all suggest the allure of Gold & Silver for Traders & Investors and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if these two commodities (and Oil) gap upwards on Monday market opening.

Next week, the question arises on whether the BOJ will finally be spooked into taking action a.k.a. intervene to strengthen their Yen to stock-up on critical imports remains to be seen.

.....and with Iran's dry-run attack on Israel today with slow moving missiles and drones which were easily intercepted by Israel iron dorm defense system and by the USA & their allies, that has potential to escalate into a much wider war.
We all know Iran has hypersonic (and other more sophisticated missiles) in their arsenal which can reach Israel in under 7 minutes that will be next to impossible to intercept, and which will cause significant damage to Israel. Add the untested nuclear weapons that Iran is suspected to have developed and possess, that makes for a very dangerous time in our history. That all suggest the allure of Gold & Silver for Traders & Investors and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if these two commodities (and Oil) gap upwards on Monday market opening.

Next week, the question arises on whether the BOJ will finally be spooked into taking action a.k.a. intervene to strengthen their Yen to stock-up on critical imports remains to be seen.
You're absolutely right. In fact, I would say (as I mentioned in Telegram) that Iran has made response less than proportional as no Israel generals have been hurt. It was very light attack and major task was twofold - to see the position of different countries in region, showing who is who. Jordan has manifested itself as a traitor.

Second - let the US to feel the real burden and hazard of potential longer and harder conflict. Israel protection has demanded to stretch all forces in the region by NATO and cost around $1 Bln. Even with this efforts few missiles have broken the Dome and hit the targets. Iran acts very intelligently and accurately I would say, if not gently.

The major problem is that this conflict is very handy and welcome for bloody Netanyahu regime. As Iran as the US do not want them. But by some news, Israel intends to strike back in 48 hours. This is most stupid decision that could even made.