European Forex Pro weekly 10-14, May, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Hi, Bilton

Hi Sive
News are manipulated. The economy in Europe isn't worse for a dime than the american. The USA are exactly as bankrupt as Greece, that means, the USA won't never be able to pay their debts as nearly all countries. So your previews are fine to the extend that you are interpreting well the manipulation and sentiment of the moment. But as the news are manipulated, all can change in a moment and you would have been wrong. For our sake (to make money in the FX market), only price action with very good trade management (T-R-A-D-E management, not money), means very small stoplosses (when the stoploss is bigger than 15 - 20 pips, you don't take the trade, there will come the next) and quickly move it to breakeven, is the more reliable way.

Well, I can tell only one thing - the approach to trading is an absolutely personal. There is not one definite way to trade that is right and others are wrong.

 

[Sive Morten]

Wed, 12 May, Update

Hello, everybody
Our EUR/USD target, that we've ment in yesterday's update (1.26) has been achieved. Market did not show any meaningful retracement up, as I've hoped for, so I was aside yesterday.
What about today...
First, market shows solid downmove, it has broke even 78.6 Fib retracement and reached an COP=1.2596. I really do not know what will be during the day. Possibly - it wil retrace a bit higher after this COP reaching. But the depth and strength of a downmove makes me think that more probable is a move to stops under the minimums. Anyway, I look bearish on EUR/USD and do not want to buy it.

The more interesting is a GBP. Remember, I've post a weekly chart here with trend changing failure. GBP has made not bad move yesterday, and broke above the weekly pivot. Now GBP is in correction to this Pivot=1.4867. So, for now is a not bad possibility try to enter long with stop somewhere below 1.4820. The possible move - 1.52 first. Although market can reach as far as 1.55 level. There is no definite signals for now, but GBP is above weekly pivot, and risk/reward is worth of attention.

Here are 4-hour charts - EUR and GBP

 

[Sive Morten]

Thu,13 May EUR/USD Update

G'day everybody,

Today's market is very blur. I do not see any particular signals. But, in general I look bearish on EUR/USD and do not want to buy it.
First, the recent retracements were very small, and I still think that down move to stops under 1.2350 level not so far in time. After that, possibly, there will be some retracement up.

This is an hourly chart. Probably we can see some insipid retracement up, to 1.2780-1.2790 area. I think that I will be aside for today.

 

[bombermanpc]

hello Sive,

How's the trend changing in GBP/USD, is it still good in the mean time ? it has break down pretty low ?

 

[auna]

Yeah i thought the GBPUSD was a great one..SL just below 1.4820 and ...boom we are now at 1.4612.
Even the resistance of 1.4690 was taken out like butter
Anyway i am out with a sizable loss and i wodnering..if the new Govt couldn't get this baby in the 1.50 then what will????

 

[Sive Morten]

hello Sive,

How's the trend changing in GBP/USD, is it still good in the mean time ? it has break down pretty low ?

I did not trade GBP today but looks like situation not so glamour as We wanted. I'll check GBP during weekend with scrutiny and tell my opinion, ok?

Yeah i thought the GBPUSD was a great one..SL just below 1.4820 and ...boom we are now at 1.4612.
Even the resistance of 1.4690 was taken out like butter
Anyway i am out with a sizable loss and i wodnering..if the new Govt couldn't get this baby in the 1.50 then what will????

Well, Auna, I'm sorry that you'd lost some money, but I'm not a prophet unfortunately. I also was in this trade, but looks like I'd entered earlier, because after my enter GBP rallied to 1.5030. When it fall like a stone I got out with no profit. (although it was about 100 pips before that). So, I'd traded the same stuff that I'd shared with you, there is no deceive here. You can check on account. Besides, if GBP already was below Pivot (1.4867) you should not to enter - read my comments carefully. But at the same time I had a JPY possition (I've talked about it on Monday also). that has gave me totally about 20-40 pips in profit for these nervous day.

 

[Vix]

Sive, when do you move your stop loss to entry point?

 

[auna]

I did not trade GBP today but looks like situation not so glamour as We wanted. I'll check GBP during weekend with scrutiny and tell my opinion, ok?

Well, Auna, I'm sorry that you'd lost some money, but I'm not a prophet unfortunately. I also was in this trade, but looks like I'd entered earlier, because after my enter GBP rallied to 1.5030. When it fall like a stone I got out with no profit. (although it was about 100 pips before that). So, I'd traded the same stuff that I'd shared with you, there is no deceive here. You can check on account. Besides, if GBP already was below Pivot (1.4867) you should not to enter - read my comments carefully. But at the same time I had a JPY possition (I've talked about it on Monday also). that has gave me totally about 20-40 pips in profit for these nervous day.

Did not blame you Mr Morten nor did i say it was your fault. Just was trying to point out how unstable and really really unpredictable this market is. Your input is always valued and appreciated in any circumstance Sir and please do note that despite some tones of disgust or unhappiness, I know you do not direct the market so how can i hold you accountable for anything. I can only have gratitude for you for shaing your expertise here on this forum. All negative emotions felt are directed at the markets so i hope you do not take it personally if the strong words find sometimes these paragraphs.

Trying to figure out who does have a say in the markets if everybody is riding the same train. If All the top people are saying buy Euro for example and everybody who is trading does so, then doesn't that go against us eventually since the law of offer and demand.Now often i hear this point is oversold and that point is over bought, that means people are getting rid of something..hence if no demand for it ..should't it fall further. I certainly don't think someone would buy Euro for example if the signals points downwards.
If all are on one pitch, (same signal), the trend should be going in the same direction right until something else happens?

I have been trying to understand this for along time Mr Morten and would love your view on this please since you have been in the trade long.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi, Vix

Sive, when do you move your stop loss to entry point?

In what trade? GBP, or yesterday's EUR?

Trying to figure out who does have a say in the markets if everybody is riding the same train. If All the top people are saying buy Euro for example and everybody who is trading does so, then doesn't that go against us eventually since the law of offer and demand.Now often i hear this point is oversold and that point is over bought, that means people are getting rid of something..hence if no demand for it ..should't it fall further. I certainly don't think someone would buy Euro for example if the signals points downwards.
If all are on one pitch, (same signal), the trend should be going in the same direction right until something else happens?

I have been trying to understand this for along time Mr Morten and would love your view on this please since you have been in the trade long.

Auna, in general, this market law works - when everybody are waiting top or bottom - it should not appear. Market continue to breaking and breaking hearts. When people start to suspect that may be it's not top or bottom yet and buying a breakout - usually it comes. And they loose money again.

But, there is another very important component - probability. Let's see on EUR - we know it on daily and monthly oversold. What does it mean for us? Does EUR should show bottom and reverse up? Not necesary. It means that we should not sell and hold (due to probability) and we know a psycology of this stuff - people are buying right now - they see RSI's Stochastics etc that are extremely oversold. But market is breaking their hearts - Big Guys are made their money. when EUR will break 1.23 - everybody move to sell because of breakout. I will search for buying signals. This is how these stuff works.

 

[Sive Morten]

Fri, 14 May, EUR/USD Update

Hi everybody,
There are my expectations for today:
We know that market at monthly overbought. So, now it's not a time for any sell and hold position. At the same time I do not see any Buy signals right now.
But, from the tactical point of view I see that market presses and presses down. It shows very shallow retracements, weekly chart shows all way back to the minimum of previous lows. This makes me think that previous lows should be hit.
This is a hourly chart of EUR/USD. I was short yesterday in very short-term trade. And I think that this kind of trade is mostly appropriate in current conditions.
For now hourly trend is bullish. First, I'll be waiting for trend changing to bearish. If this will coincide with down thrust - much better. Then all trends will be bearish - hourly, 4 hour, daily etc. Then I'll enter on retracement with nearest profit objective COP (Like in my previous trade), because we near monthly oversold and I do not want to hold anything.