weekly outlook

  1. FXP_2020

    Inflation

    Last week’s Consumer Price Index print caught everyone by surprise – month-on-month pop of 0.9% core inflation (last time seen in 1982) was way above the consensus expectation of 0.3%. Whilst an increase in inflation has been discussed nonstop ever since the Fed announced their Average Inflation...
  2. FXP_2020

    European and U.S. GDP data published this week

    This coming week is heavy on the economic data front. Both the Boj and the Fed are publishing their monetary policy statements and interest rate decisions, on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Preliminary U.S and Euro Area first quarter GDP data will be published on Thursday and Friday, while...
  3. FXP_2020

    Commodity supercycle depends on China

    U.S. retail data published this week is projected to jump +5.5% for the month of March, the third highest reading, excluding May 2020 reading of 18.3% due to base effects. Retail spending has been volatile in the last 12 months due to imposed lockdowns but also increased propensity to save as...
  4. FXP_2020

    Suez Canal Blockage Pushing Oil Higher

    Another legendary meme was created last week when Egyptian authorities released an image of the 400-meter container ship blocking the Suez Canal and being dug out by what seemed to be a miniature excavator. The humongous vessel has been stuck since Tuesday, blocking one of the most important...
  5. FXP_2020

    Never bet against America

    Warren Buffett stated ‘Never bet against America’ in his latest annual letter to shareholders. The markets seem to agree with mister Buffett – American economy has rebounded from the recession and is now on an expansionary trajectory again, with a projected growth of 6.5% in 2021. U.S. fourth...
  6. FXP_2020

    All eyes on the Fed

    The upcoming week has been highly anticipated due to the number of central bank meetings taking place. We have the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan giving their projections, monetary policy statement and announcing new benchmark interest rate. Out of the three, the Fed Chair Powell’s...
  7. FXP_2020

    Oil Prices Soaring After A Drone Attack

    Market sentiment has taken a turn to dovish last week with a number of key interest rates decisively moving higheracross a number of developed economies. Outflow of capital from risk assets have pushed risk assets lower with Nasdaq-100 slipping -1.9%, S&P 500 losing -0.8% and Russell 2000...
  8. FXP_2020

    Death Cross Emerges in Gold Charts — FXPRIMUS

    The sentiment among investors has not changed with asset prices continuing to push into new highs, except for gold, which has lost some of the gains in early 2021 and has moved to levels last seen in July 2020. On the opposite side of the story is the NZDUSD pair, which is generally seen as...
  9. FXP_2020

    Primus Weekly - 8th February

    The markets have shrugged off the recent volatility event and taken a step higher once again with S&P 500 rising 4.65%, Nasdaq-100 5.25% while Russell 2000 was up 7.7% last week. All these indexes reached another all-time-high. Risk-on sentiment has been prevailing since last week when President...
  10. FXP_2020

    Primus Weekly - 1st February

    The major topic of last week was retail investors versus Wall Street behemoths. In this David vs Goliath fight fortunes were made and lost, causing volatility in the equity markets. VIX, also known as the Fear Index, spiked to 37.2, the highest it has been since October 2020. Retail trading...
  11. FXP_2020

    Primus Weekly - 25th January

    The world seems to be slightly more normal and pleasantly boring now that president Biden and vice-president Harris have taken office. The inauguration ceremony took place with no major escalations as Washington D.C. and other major U.S cities were heavily guarded. Biden signed a dozen of...
  12. FXP_2020

    Primus Weekly - 11th January

    The first week of 2021 has been anything but boring. The 2 undecided U.S Senate seats went to Democrats in Georgia Run-offs and the sitting U.S. Senate certified Joe Biden’s win. This was followed by historical pro-Trump protests in the U.S. which culminated with protesters breaching the U.S...
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