AUD/USD Daily Video, September 10, 2014

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

let's make some comments on Aussie slump:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Kleinerbroker]

Hello Sive , thank you very much .

As mentioned in last weekly , I was trading opposite ... Long ... until today . I was entering market without specific signal but just relying on the support area of monthly Long 38,2% (0,92338) and weekly short 23,6% (0,91778) . I assumed this being enough support, & that would hold/keep price above it . This obviously was wrong .
If I understand your clip correct, marketplayers expect change of interest of the USD raising and therefore taking out the positive ratio for carry trading (which was my aim as well ) .

Assuming I understood your explanation correct ....than here my question to you if I may : could I as a Kleinerbroker == privat "Hobby"trader have foreseen such development on Sunday and Monday ? Perhaps follow any news channel ? Which one ? Or more in general : What should be my lessons learned for next such trade which was ment to last for days or even weeks ideally ?

Thank you for taking time to read this .

Best regards
KB

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello Sive , thank you very much .

As mentioned in last weekly , I was trading opposite ... Long ... until today . I was entering market without specific signal but just relying on the support area of monthly Long 38,2% (0,92338) and weekly short 23,6% (0,91778) . I assumed this being enough support, & that would hold/keep price above it . This obviously was wrong .
If I understand your clip correct, marketplayers expect change of interest of the USD raising and therefore taking out the positive ratio for carry trading (which was my aim as well ) .

Assuming I understood your explanation correct ....than here my question to you if I may : could I as a Kleinerbroker == privat "Hobby"trader have foreseen such development on Sunday and Monday ? Perhaps follow any news channel ? Which one ? Or more in general : What should be my lessons learned for next such trade which was ment to last for days or even weeks ideally ?

Thank you for taking time to read this .

Best regards
KB

Hm,
hardly it could be foreseen. In this case you was needed to foresee the content of Fed Bank research...
But, H&S pattern was developing for some time already and was recognizable. This should hold you from long entry...But this is hindsight, and all of us are very clever on hindsight

 

[Kleinerbroker]

Lessons learned

Hm, ..........But this is hindsight, and all of us are very clever on hindsight

Dear Sive , Spasiba ! , no hindsight as I was asking you for favor so that I can learn from you for my future . You are very polite !

The H&S I would not have recognised until now, as I always thought, it would take exactly one left, one right shoulder , sharply formed, so I know better now .

And now trading short with nice target I will recover my losses w/o major problem (as my SL was reasonable and not too brave , luckly ... )

Yours
KB