Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 22, 2018)

USD

The US dollar started sliding ahead of the FOMC statement and, save for a brief spike higher, resumed its drop until the end of the session. Although the Fed hiked interest rates by 0.25% as expected in their latest policy statement, dollar bulls seemed disappointed over the lack of changes in the dot plot. GDP forecasts for this year and the next were upgraded and a couple of CPI estimates also revised higher, but policymakers are still projecting three hikes this year versus expectations of four. Only medium-tier reports are due from the US next, namely the flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as it took advantage of dollar strength but caved to the pound and commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the region then, which explains why the shared currency simply took its cues from its counterparts. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due next, and dips are eyed.

GBP

The pound continued to advance against most of its peers as positive Brexit developments are keeping the currency afloat. The UK jobs report printed mixed results as the claimant count change came in at 9.2K vs. -3.1K and the earlier reading was downgraded to show a smaller drop in joblessness. However, the average earnings index came in better than expected at 2.8% versus 2.6% and the previous reading enjoyed an upgrade. The unemployment rate beat expectations and landed at 4.3% as well. UK retail sales and the BOE decision are lined up next.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it also reacted mostly to its counterparts on the lack of top-tier data. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin contained some concerns on franc strength, which kept the currency's gains in check. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen gained ground as it took safe-haven flows from the dollar but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielders. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday while today's flash manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected. The reading fell from 54.1 to 53.2 instead of improving to the estimated 54.3 figure.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie drew some support from positive NAFTA updates as PM Trudeau and US negotiator Lighthizer expressed optimism about a deal. The RBNZ kept rates unchanged as expected and refrained from jawboning the Kiwi. Australia's jobs report disappointed as employment change stood at 17.5K vs. 19.8K while the jobless rate rose to 5.6%. There are no other major reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 23, 2018)

USD

The US dollar staged a strong rally when risk-off vibes returned on trade war jitters. However it was still weaker compared to the Japanese yen. Data was mostly in line with expectations, although the flash services PMI missed the consensus. Durable goods orders data are up for release today but the focus would likely be on the US tariffs. Trump signed a memorandum to impose higher tariffs on nearly $60 billion worth of Chinese goods from companies involved in U.S. intellectual property theft, spurring a sharp selloff in higher-yielding assets.

EUR

The euro tumbled as most of its PMI readings came in weaker than expected. Even the German Ifo business climate index fell from 115.4 to 114.7, but the current account balance of the region beat expectations. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today so the shared currency could be more sensitive to market sentiment or its counterparts' movements.

GBP

The pound got a boost from upbeat UK retail sales, which printed a 0.8% gain versus the estimated 0.4% uptick. The BOE decision was in line with expectations of no changes to interest rates or asset purchases, but the MPC minutes turned out hawkish since a couple of members voted to hike. MPC member Vlieghe has a speech coming up next.

CHF

The franc scored strong gains as risk aversion returned to the markets starting from the European session. The franc rally gained further traction during the New York session when fears of a trade war escalated. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also a big winner as it took advantage of risk-off moves and dollar weakness. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI was actually weaker than expected while the national core CPI came in line with expectations of a 1.0% figure. There are no other reports due from Japan so bond yields and sentiment could be the main driving factors.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies were worst-hit by trade war fears as their respective economies would be directly hit if tensions between the US and China heat up. However, the focus could switch back to Canadian fundamentals as CPI and retail sales figures are up for release. Weaker than expected reports, could drive the Loonie lower, especially if oil suffers another leg down.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 11, 2018)

USD

The dollar drew some support to its lower-yielding rivals but caved to comdoll strength on signs of cooling tensions between China and the US. PPI figures beat expectations at 0.3% gains for both the core and headline figure, spurring positive expectations for the CPI release. The FOMC minutes are also up for release and could bring extra volatility for dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro was on weaker footing owing to downbeat data, with both Italian and French retail sales missing expectations. However, the shared currency drew some support from ECB commentary as Coeure mentioned that the QE program could be wound down by the end of the year. ECB head Draghi has a speech coming up.

GBP

The pound was also supported by upbeat central bank commentary as hawkish member McCafferty said in an interview with Reuters that they shouldn't take their time with tightening. There were no reports out of the UK then while today has manufacturing and industrial production numbers. A 0.2% uptick is seen for the latter while the former could show a 0.4% increase.

CHF

The franc gave up ground as risk appetite improved in recent sessions. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also on weaker footing, particularly against the commodity currencies. Data from Japan was mostly upbeat as the core machinery orders report printed a 2.1% gain versus the estimated 2.6% slide. Looking ahead, yen pairs could take their cues from sentiment and bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew support from the conciliatory tone of both China and the US as leaders seemed more open to trade talks. Crude oil stayed supported on talks of $80 per barrel oil despite the surprise build in API stockpiles. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected while Australia reported a 0.6% drop in Westpac consumer sentiment, but this didn't deter the Aussie from its climb. There are no major reports from the comdolls next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 12, 2018)

USD


The dollar drew some support during the release of the FOMC minutes, which turned out more hawkish than expected. Fed policymakers agreed that gradual rate hikes should be maintained as the economic outlook has improved in recent months and annual inflation could keep rising. However, CPI data hasn't been so impressive as the headline figure posted a 0.1% dip instead of staying flat, keeping tightening doubts in play. Initial jobless claims and import prices data are due next.

EUR

The euro had a mixed run as it caved to the comdolls but advanced to the yen and dollar. Draghi also had some hawkish remarks to say as he expressed confidence that inflation will hit their targets soon, adding to upbeat remarks from other ECB officials earlier in the week. Italian retail sales beat expectations with a 0.4% uptick and the ECB minutes are due next.

GBP

The pound took hits on weaker than expected manufacturing and industrial production data. The former showed a 0.2% drop versus the estimated 0.2% gain while the previous reading was downgraded. The latter posted a meager 0.1% uptick versus the 0.4% consensus. MPC member Broadbent has a speech lined up and the BOE Credit Conditions Survey is due.

CHF

The franc gave up ground as risk appetite returned on cooling trade tensions but the lower-yielding currency managed to draw a bit of support from geopolitical tensions in Syria. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen also drew some support from geopolitical risks but was still no match to comdoll strength on easing trade war jitters. BOJ Governor Kuroda maintained an optimistic view on inflation in his latest testimony and the lack of other top-tier catalysts could keep risk sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was among the top performers as it was boosted by risk appetite and higher crude oil. Tensions in Syria spurred speculations of supply outages in the Middle East, which propped price up despite the surprise build in US stockpiles. Australia's MI inflation expectations and home loans data were slightly weaker. Canada's NHPI and New Zealand's Business NZ manufacturing index are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 13, 2018)

USD

The US currency was able to draw a bid in recent sessions thanks mostly to improving investor sentiment on cooling geopolitical risks from China and Syria. Still, it's worth noting that a source reported that the US is targeting eight zones in Syria. US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are lined up today and these could allow the Greenback to extend its climb if the numbers turn out stronger than expected.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains, likely on profit-taking from the recent surge stemming from hawkish ECB commentary. Improved risk sentiment also dampened demand for the currency, which typically enjoys some safe-haven demand. The ECB minutes were also failed to give the shared currency a boost. German final CPI and the region's trade balance are due next.

GBP

The pound was able to hold its ground in recent sessions thanks to upbeat remarks from Brexit minister Davis. He noted that both sides are aiming to iron out the details by October, which lessens the uncertainty for businesses. There are no major reports due from the UK today so Brexit updates could drive pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc lost ground as risk appetite returned to financial markets on easing geopolitical tensions. There were no reports to support the Swiss currency yesterday and none are due today so sentiment could stay in play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot on improving risk appetite and rising US bond yields. There were no reports to prop up the yen yesterday and none are lined up today so sentiment could push yen pairs around until the end of the trading week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to rake in gains on improving risk sentiment thanks to easing concerns about a trade war with China and a military strike in Syria. Crude oil dipped slightly in anticipation of an increase in oil rig counts but the Loonie managed to hold its ground. China reported a surprise trade deficit of 30 billion CNY, weighing slightly on AUD and NZD in the Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 17, 2018)

USD

The dollar barely reacted to upbeat retail sales data as traders remained doubtful about Fed tightening plans and worried about geopolitical risks. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus while the core reading posted a 0.2% gain as expected. The Empire State manufacturing index and NAHB housing index both came in below expectations. Industrial production data is due today, along with building permits and housing starts.

EUR

The euro regained some ground against some of its rivals late in the day but couldn't establish a clear direction on the lack of top-tier reports. Today's release of ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany and the entire region could lead to more sustained moves. The former could see a drop from 5.1 to -0.8 while the latter could slide from 13.4 to 7.4.

GBP

The pound was the top-performer of the day as it was lifted by hawkish BOE expectations. The UK jobs report is due today and larger increase of 13.3K in joblessness compared to the earlier reading. Traders would likely pay closer attention to the average earnings index which could tick up from 2.8% to 3.0% and boost inflation expectations.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot as PPI came in below expectations. Producer prices fell 0.2% instead of posting the expected 0.4% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also on weaker footing as risk appetite and dollar support remained in play. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins on news of another airstrike in Syria. Data from China was also mostly weaker than expected, with industrial production falling from 7.2% to 6.0% and fixed asset investment dipping from 7.9% to 7.5%. GDP came in line with expectations while retail sales was stronger than expected at a 10.1% year-over-year gain. New Zealand has its GDT auction lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 18, 2018)

USD


The US dollar has been able to regain some ground recently thanks to strong medium-tier data and a pickup in bond yields on cooling geopolitical risks. Industrial production and capacity utilization beat expectations, as well as building permits and housing starts. FOMC members have also dropped some optimistic remarks on economic growth and inflation, as well as the labor market.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains as ZEW economic sentiment readings fell short. Germany's ZEW reading tumbled from 5.1 to -8.2, way worse than the estimated -0.8 figure. The region's reading fell from 13.4 to 1.9 versus the 7.4 forecast. Final CPI readings are due next but no changes are eyed.

GBP

The pound also returned some of its winnings when the average earnings index fell short of estimates. Claimant count was better than expected at an 11.6K gain in joblessness versus the estimated 13.3K figure while the earlier reading enjoyed an upgrade. UK CPI is due next and stronger figures could revive BOE tightening hopes and sterling rallies.

CHF

The franc was one of the weaker performers as the improvement in risk appetite and the rise in US bond yields dampened demand for this lower-yielding currency. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot thanks to the pickup in risk-taking and dollar demand. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that yen pairs could take their cues from geopolitical risks or the lack thereof.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie extended its gains on another round of oil rallies stemming from a reduction in API stockpiles. This could lead to a similar drop in EIA crude oil inventories data, easing oversupply concerns. New Zealand has its CPI report due next and a 0.4% gain in price levels is eyed. The BOC has its rate statement lined up, along with a presser by Governor Poloz which could contain more upbeat remarks.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

katetrades

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 19, 2018)

USD

The dollar scored another winning day thanks to higher US bond yields. Optimistic remarks from Fed officials, along with improved sentiment from the Beige Book, revived rate hike expectations even as some medium-tier reports previously missed expectations. Initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed index are due next.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold its ground as ECB tightening hopes dipped on the downgrade in final headline CPI. The figure was lowered from 1.4% to 1.3% instead of being unchanged as expected. There are no major reports due from the region today so the shared currency could be more sensitive to risk flows and its counterparts' movements.

GBP

The pound took a hit when UK CPI disappointed, following through on the reaction from the weaker average earnings index earlier in the week. The headline figure fell from 2.7% to 2.5% instead of holding steady while the core figure dipped from 2.4% to 2.3%. UK retail sales is due next and a 0.5% drop in consumer spending is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to slide lower as traders renewed their demand for the dollar versus other lower-yielding currencies. The improvement in risk appetite also took its toll on the Swiss currency. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today, so sentiment could remain in play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot as dollar demand picked up on account of higher US bond yields. There were no reports out of Japan then and none are due today, so sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie slumped hard after the BOC was considerably less upbeat than expected. The central bank kept rates unchanged at 1.25% but did not signal any eagerness to hike again anytime soon, citing trade risks as a source of uncertainty. In Australia, the headline unemployment change came in weaker than expected at 4.9K versus 20.3K for March while the earlier reading was downgraded to -6.3K. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies in the next sessions.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
 

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 15 – Oct 19)

USD

Treasury yields are pushing the dollar up. 10 Year Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since March, 2011.

Currently, FED fund rates have priced in a 74.6% chance of a rate hike. This probability is expected to grow more in the next month as long as the FED continues with its monetary policies and rhetoric. Rate hike expectations should provide some backing to the dollar.
Individual stocks and indices encountered losses the previous Wednesday when President Trump remarked that FED policy is too aggressive. This may end up politicizing FED and halt or slow down their rate hike rhetoric. President Trump characterized drops in stocks as a correction.
Markets have completely shifted focus to wages and inflation, so this Tuesday’s Core PCE will be carefully observed for determining the future course of the USD and FED monetary policy in general. CPI data on previous the Thursday came at 2.3% YoY vs 2.4% YoY expected.
This week we wait for data concerning consumption, inflation, building permits and oil stock change. The Fed prefers PCE as an indicator of its success in managing inflation as the Core PCE is considerably less volatile than the CPI measure of inflation.
Key events for USD:

Monday:
    • ---- Retail Sales (MoM)
    • ---- Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
Tuesday:
    • ---- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
Wednesday:
    • ---- Building Permits (MoM)
    • ---- Building Permits Change
    • ---- EIA Crude Oil Stocks change USD
EUR

Main concerns in the Euro zone surround the Italian budget. The deadline for presenting the budget is October 15th. The Italian government pushes for 2.4% budget deficit and takes a firm stand. It is unlikely that the EU will accept the Italian budget although the Italian government may reduce the 2020 and 2021 budget deficit targets to below 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. Additionally, the S&P will deliver its decision about rating of Italian bonds on 26 October while Moody's plans to do it by the end of October. A downgrade in rating of Italian bonds will have a negative impact on the value of the EUR.
The German government has reduced its 2018 growth forecast to 1.8%, down from 2.3%. Its 2019 growth forecast will be cut to 1.8% from 2.1% and 2020 growth is expected to come in at 1.8%, with2018 inflation seen at 1.8%, 2019 inflation at 2.0% and 2020 inflation at 1.9%
This week we will have data surrounding investor optimism and inflation.
Key events for EUR:

Tuesday:
    • ---- ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment Link (EUR/GER)
Wednesday:
    • ---- EU Brexit Summit
    • ---- Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    • ---- Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY)
Thursday:
    • ---- EU Brexit Summit
GBP

Recent talks about striking an agreement between Britain and EU officials have been positive and thus optimism towards a Brexit deal prevails in the markets. During the EU Brexit Summit on October 17-18, both parties will look towards making a deal by the end of November. This is giving the pound a nice boost as it continues to strengthen across the markets. Even if there is no substantial progress made during the Summit, the pound will still be underpinned. The key risk for the pound is within the UK, and its concerns of whether Theresa May can win over enough parliamentary votes for her Brexit proposals.
BOE chief economist Andy Haldane has reiterated that the BOE is on course for one rate hike per year. This course will be maintained as long as the Brexit situation remains stable.
This week we will see data about inflation in the UK, consumption as well as wage growth.
Key events for GBP:

Tuesday:
    • ---- Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
    • ---- Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
Wednesday:
    • ---- EU Brexit Summit
    • ---- Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    • ---- Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Thursday:
    • ---- EU Brexit Summit
    • ---- Retail Sales (MoM)
    • ---- Retail Sales (YoY) GBP
AUD

Fears of US- China trade war wage on AUD as China is Australia’s leading trading partner. News about US- China relations can have impact on AUD. Additionally data from China regarding the Chinese economy will have impact on AUD.Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Head of Economic Analysis Department, Merylin Coombs stated that they expect GDP growth in the next year to be slightly above 3% and that tightening of the labour market will produce growth in wages and inflation.
This week’s RBA Meeting’s Minutes will show us more information aboutthe course of the RBA’s monetary policy, data regarding Unemployment in Australia and GDP data from China.
Key events for AUD:

Tuesday:
    • ---- RBA Meeting’s Minutes
Thursday:
    • ---- Employment change
    • ---- Participation Rate
    • ---- Unemployment Rate
Friday:
    • ---- GDP (MoM) (Chinese GDP)
    • ---- GDP (YoY) (Chinese GDP)
NZD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have left the official cash rate (OCR) at 1.75%, as expected, and have issued no change for monetary policy. In a brief press statement accompanying the OCR decision (Official Cash Rate), it was stated that they expect to keep the OCR unchanged into 2020, that Employment is around a sustainable level, that consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of their target and that lower the New Zealand dollar exchange rate is expected to support demand for exports.
This week we will have data concerning inflation in New Zealand as well as the GDT Price Index, which will show changes in price of Dairy, New Zealand’s top export.
Key events for NZD:

Monday:
    • ---- Consumer Price Index (QoQ)
    • ---- Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Tuesday:
    • ---- GDT Price Index
CAD

In the past week CAD has experienced positive effects after the signing of USMCA deal. CAD was stronger across the markets, however falling oil prices have hampered loonie. Oil is Canadas largest export and as such CAD is very sensitive to changes in oil prices.
This week we will get data about consumption in Canada as well as inflation.
Key events for CAD:

Friday:
    • ---- Retail Sales (MoM)
    • ---- Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
    • ---- Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)
JPY

Risk off sentiment that is currently prevailing in the markets can shift focus on JPY which is traditionally considered as a risk aversion currency. Higher yields and trade tensions have caused stock markets to close lower in the previous week, which in turn increased the attractiveness of JPY.
This week we will get data about Exports, Imports and Trade Balance as well as data about inflation.
Key events for JPY:

Thursday:
    • ---- Exports (YoY)
    • ---- Imports (YoY)
    • ---- Merchandise Trade Balance Total
Friday:
    • ---- National Consumer Price Index (YoY)
    • ---- National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)
CHF

This week we will see data surrounding Exports, Imports and Trade Balance
Key events for CHF:

Thursday:
    • ---- Imports (MoM)
    • ---- Exports (MoM)
    • ---- Trade Balance CHF
 

katetrades

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 22 – Oct 26)

USD


Retail sales in the US came in worse than expected, however the control group, which represents the total industry sales that are used to prepare the estimates of PCE for most goods, showed an increase to 0.5%. This increase can positively influence the FED’s preferred inflation measure PCE.

Budget deficit has soared up in the first 11 months of the fiscal year by almost a third compared to the same period last year. Government spending has surged up to 7% while revenues rose 1%. US debt load is now at $21.5 trillion. A soaring budget deficit is something to pay attention to as it can have serious negative impacts on the USD in the long term.

Data regarding US JOLTS job openings came in at 7136K vs 6900K as expected which is a new record high for JOLTS and illustrates the strength of the job market.

The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate for the US 3Q GDP is set at 3.9%, that is a downgrade from the previous level of 4%.

The hawkish tone from Fed’s Powell during Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes strengthened the expectations for at least three rate hikes in 2019 along with the December 2018 rate hike.

This week we will have data regarding Durable Goods; they are part of Personal Consumption Expenditures and as such will have an impact on the GDP figure that will be announced on Friday.

Important events for USD:

Wednesday:
  • ---- New Home Sales m/m
  • ---- FED Beige Book
Thursday:
  • ---- Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • ---- Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • ---- Goods Trade Balance
  • ---- Initial Jobless Claims
  • ---- Pending Home Sales m/m
  • ---- Pending Home Sales y/y
Friday:
  • ---- GDP q/q
  • ---- Core PCE Price Index q/q
EUR

President of the ECB Mario Draghi stated in a statement at the IMFC meeting that the Euro Area economy continues the expand in a broad-based manner - across sectors and countries – and according to the latest economic indicators, this growth will continue. The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest levels since 2008. Underlying inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year which would lead to a gradual increase over the medium term to projected levels of close to (but below) 2%. Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed.

ZEW economic sentiment came lower both for Germany and for the EU. Investors’ outlook was damaged by intensifying trade disputes between US and China as well as the dangers of a “hard Brexit”.

Final CPI in the Eurozone came in at +2.1% y/y, final core CPI at +0.9% y/y and CPI m/m at 0.5% as expected.

This week on Friday we expect a review of Italy’s credit rating by S&P Global Ratings and by Moody’s near the end of the month. Currently the Italian rating is just two levels above junk status and a downgrade will result in further pressure on Italian assets and the euro. This will be a key risk factor to look out for in the week ahead.

In Italy’s budget plan proposal submitted on October 15th, the goal is to cut debt-to-GDP ratio by 4.5% in 3 years. Italy’s Finance Minister Tria stated that growth estimates in budget are conservative. The European Commission has a days to make their concerns known to Italy (October 22nd). European Commission has up to a week to reject Italy's submission (October 29th). If the budget proposal is rejected, Italy will have up to 3 weeks to come up with a new budget proposal.

This week we will see data regarding business conditions in the manufacturing sector for the EU, France and Germany as well as the ECB Interest Rate Decision and press conference afterward.

Important events for EUR:

Wednesday:
  • ---- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EU, France and Germany)
Thursday:
  • ---- ECB Deposit Facility Rate Decision
  • ---- ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • ---- ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
GBP

Average earnings have beaten expectations coming in at 3.1% excluding bonuses - the highest reading since 2009 - and 2.7% including bonuses which will give pound a nice underpin and certainly satisfy BOE. Positive data may give reason to BOE for a rate hike sooner than expected. Currently, the market has priced in a rate hike not before May 2019. A recent dovish shift suggests that a rate hike is expected to come later, with August 2019 as most likely.

Inflation data from UK came in softer than expected with CPI coming in at +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expected and CPI core coming in at +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y expected. Slowdown in inflation should not have a big impact on GBP. A second rate hike for the year, which already had a little probability of happening, is now taken off the table. Additionally, inflation softening combined with high wage growth will relieve pressure on household incomes.

This week we will have data regarding UK Finance Mortgage Approvals which is a leading indicator of the UK’s Housing Market.

Important events for GBP:

Wednesday:
  • ---- UK Finance Mortgage Approvals
AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review stated that the RBA is satisfied with the domestic situation and sees risks mainly offshore stating that trade tensions and slowdown in China could affect the global economy and start a global economic downturn. The level of household debt is high but does not appear to be a large risk to the financial system. Debt levels could be a risk if they cause households to cut back on consumption.

RBA October minutes were published last week and it was stated that RBA should continue holding rates at the current level as a source of stability. The next move in rates will most likely be a raise, however there is no necessity for such a move in the near-term. The modest fall in the AUD has helped domestic economic growth. Recent economic data points to a solid growth of GDP in Q3. Employment has risen strongly in the month of August, however average earnings are still weak which exerts downward pressure on inflation. Global growth is seen as solid for the next couple of years.

Previous week employment data came mixed. Employment change rose 5.6k which was a miss from 15.0 k expected and participation rate fell to 65.4% vs 65.7% as expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%. An unemployment rate of 5.0% is RBA’s estimate of full employment so we can expect some hawkishness in the RBA rhetoric in the future.

This week we will get more information regarding RBA view on employment figures and their impact on the Australian economy as a whole.

Important events for AUD:

Monday:
  • ---- RBA Deputy Governor Debelle Speech
Tuesday:
  • ---- RBA Deputy Governor Debelle Speech
NZD

Inflation data for NZD came higher than expected which immediately discarded any talks about rate cuts for NZD. Higher than expected numbers were caused by the rising oil prices while there was no growth in the “core” inflation. Later during the day RBNZ released information about one of its preferred inflation measures - the sectoral factor model - and data came unchanged, indicating no growth in the “core” inflation.

GDT auction came in at -0.3%. This marks the 10th month in a row of falling or flat dairy prices. Almost 95% of dairy products produced in New Zealand are exported. Therefore, a decrease in the GDT Price Index ultimately affects the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar and can lead to its weakening.

This week we will have data regarding Trade Balance as well as Exports and Imports.

Important events for NZD:

Thursday:
  • ---- Trade Balance m/m
  • ---- Trade Balance y/y
  • ---- Exports
  • ---- Imports
CAD

Previous week was very good for the Canadian Dollar. Business Outlook Survey summarized: “Responses to the autumn Business Outlook Survey indicate that near term business prospects continue to be robust. Strong demand and elevated capacity pressures support firm's investment and employment intentions”. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar across the markets can lead to a hawkish Bank of Canada rate statement this week.

Canada’s CPI came in at +2.2% y/y vs + 2.7% expected with prior at +2.8%. This is a big miss in the data and markets immediately reacted with CAD weakness. However core inflation numbers came in at around 2.0% (Core common +1.9% vs 2.0% prior; Core median +2.0% vs +2.1% prior; Core trim +2.1% vs +2.2% prior ) which is in line with BOC’s target.

Retail sales came in at -0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected with prior revised down to +0.2%. Retail sales ex Autos m/m came in at -0.4% vs +0.1% expected with prior revised down to +0.8%. These are weaker data in line with the softer CPI data.

Softer numbers ease pressure from BOC to deliver a hawkish message at Wednesday’s meeting although the rate hike is still priced in as a virtual certainty. There is less certainty however surrounding back-to-back hikes in December while odds of another hike in December are around 68%.

This week Bank of Canada will take the central stage with an interest rate decision, Monetary Policy Report and a press conference later on.

Important events for CAD:

Monday:
  • ---- Wholesale Trade m/m
Wednesday:
  • ---- BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • ---- BoC Rate Statement
  • ---- BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • ---- BoC Monetary Policy Report Press Conference
  • ---- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
JPY

During the IMF summit BOJ Governor Kuroda stated his satisfaction with FED rate hikes characterizing them as good for global economy. BOJ is taking longer to achieve its projected inflation target of 2%. Additionally Kuroda stated to a branch manager meeting that Japan's economy is expected to continue expanding moderately and that BOJ will continue with monetary base expansion until inflation stably exceeds the 2% mark. BOJ will keep short and long-term interest rates at the current very low levels for an extended period.

National CPI came at 1.2% y/y vs 1.3% expected, prior 1.3%. National CPI excluding Food, Energy came in at 0.4% y/y as expected; the prior was 0.4%. These data points are well below the BOJ inflation target of 2%.

This week we will have data regarding Nikkei Manufacturing PMI, Corporate Services Price and inflation.

Important events for JPY:

Wednesday:
  • ---- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
Thursday:
  • ---- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Corporate Services Price Index y/y
Friday:
  • ---- Tokyo CPI y/y
  • ---- Tokyo CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y
  • ---- Tokyo Core CPI y/y
CHF

Swiss Governor Jordan reiterated SNB’s stances in his interview on SRF radio. He mentioned the fragile situation in the markets as well as the pledge of SNB to intervene if needed. He also stated that there are no signs of overheating in the economy, therefore it is appropriate to leave the policies unchanged. Additionally, he stated that FED is making the correct moves.

Trade balance for Switzerland came in at CHF 2.43 billion vs CHF 2.13 billion prior (revised to 2.08 billion). Both monthly export (-0.8% m/m vs +0.6%; revised to -0.3%) and monthly import (-0.4% m/m vs -2.8%; revised to -2.5%) figures are down which is not a good sign, but it is not alarming at this point.
 
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