1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by katetrades, Feb 11, 2013.

  1. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 18 – Mar 22)

    USD

    Advanced retail sales form the month of January came in 0.2% m/m vs 0% as expected. Ex auto category came in at 0.9% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected and control group, which has influence on inflation, came in at 1.1% m/m vs 0.6% m/m as expected. Encouraging numbers but reaction in USD was lackluster. USD debt soared to new record highs of over $22 trillion.

    CPI for the month of February came in at 1.5% y/y vs 1.6% y/y as expected and 0.2% m/m as expected. Core CPI came in at 2.1% y/y vs 2.2% y/y as expected. Small misses on the numbers which weakened USD across the boards. Durable goods for the month of January came in at 0.4% m/m vs -0.4% m/m as expected. Capital goods orders nondefense ex air 0.8% m/m vs 0.2% m/m as expected. Better than expected reading especially considering weak numbers in previous months, but there is still a lot of ground to be covered for it to be characterized as healthy. Core durable goods came in at -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% m/m as expected.

    This week FED will publish updated economic projections known as the "dot plot". Fed has pledged patience on interest rates since January so the focus is now on how it translates into the updated projections. Additionally, we will have housing and factory data as well as preliminary PMI numbers.

    Important news for USD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Factory Orders
    Wednesday:
    • -- FOMC Interest Rate Decision
    • -- FOMC Statement
    • -- FOMC Economic Projections
    • -- FOMC Press Conference
    Friday:
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    • -- Markit Services PMI
    • -- Markit Composite PMI
    • -- Existing Home Sales
    EUR

    Industrial production for the month of January came in at 1.4% m/m vs 1% m/m as expected. Decent and much needed beat for EU data. Ifo institute has slashed German GDP forecast from 1.1% to 0.6%. CPI data came in line with preliminary reading, headline CPI at 1.5% y/y and core CPI at 1% y/y.

    This week we will have trade balance data, economic sentiment data from ZEW as well as preliminary PMI numbers. Additionally, EU Summit will be held on March 21-22.

    Important news for EUR:

    Monday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    Tuesday:
    • -- ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (Germany and EU)
    • -- Wage costs
    Thursday:
    • -- EU Leaders Summit
    • -- Consumer Confidence
    Friday:
    • -- EU Leaders Summit
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI (Germany, France, EU)
    • -- Markit Services PMI (Germany, France, EU)
    • -- Markit Composite PMI (Germany, France, EU)
    GBP

    GDP for the month of January came in at 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% m/m as expected. Excellent start of the year for UK’s economy propped up by factory activity data. Manufacturing, industrial and construction have all beaten the expectations with construction output coming in at 2.8% m/m vs 0.8% m/m as expected. The economy is standing on the firm grounds, however Brexit is the main culprit influencing movements of GBP and for now pushes the data into the bacground.

    Attorney General Cox has stated that legal risk remains unchanged and that UK will not have lawful means of exiting agreement. On March 12 PM’s Brexit deal was defeated in Parliament by whooping result of 391–242. On March 13 Parliament voted 312-308 in favour of never leaving the EU without a Brexit deal, this vote is non-binding, so there is a chance of UK could still face a no-deal Brexit. Parliament voted 321-278 in favour of not leaving the EU without a deal on 29 March. On March 14 Parliament voted 413-202 for extension on Article 50 effectively delaying the exit post March 29. Early indications show that EU may offer 1-2 year extension.

    This week we will have data on employment, earnings and inflation. BOE is expected to keep interest rate unchanged so minutes will provide us with more insight on how BOE accesses Brexit uncertainties. Third meaningful vote will be held on March 20 and due to happenings surrounding the Brexit process higher than usual volatility can be expected on all GBP pairs. That volatility can be easily triggered by any Brexit related news so we would caution you to lower your lot sizes when trading GBP pairs.

    Important news for GBP:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Average Hourly Earnings
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Claimant Count Change
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    Thursday:
    • -- BOE Interest Rate Decision
    • -- BOE MPC Meeting Minutes
    • -- Third meaningful vote in the Parliament
    AUD

    China CPI came in at 1.5% y/y as expected although PPI came in slightly weaker than expected. Retail sales came in at 8.2% y/y vs 8.1% y/y as expected. Fixed asset investment came in at 6.1% y/y vs 6% y/y as expected and property investment rose 11.6% y/y vs 9.5% y/y the previous month while industrial production came in at 5.3% y/y vs 5.6% y/y as expected. Chinese economy was generally steady in period January-February, however downward pressures still exist. Industrial production has fallen to its lowest in 17 years.

    Westpac consumer confidence for the month of March plunged to -4.8% m/m vs 4.3% m/m the previous month. A number of weak data coming from Australia lowered the confidence of consumers which in turn pressures the AUD down.

    This week we will have minutes from the latest RBA meeting. Markets expect them to be dovish. Any excessive dovishness may push AUD downwards. We will also get employment data.

    Important news for AUD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- RBA Meeting Minutes
    Thursday:
    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    NZD

    Food price index for the month of February came in at 0.4% m/m vs 1% m/m the previous month. This is a bit surprising reading considering the strong GDT auctions. Food price index comprises around 19% of the CPI. Manufacturing PMI for the month of February came in at 53.7 vs 53.1 the previous month. Production and new orders sub indexes contributed most to the number.

    This week we will have regular bi-weekly GDT auction data on current account and Q4 GDP data which may influence RBNZ decision to cut interest rates later in the year.

    Important news for NZD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- GDT Price Index
    • -- Current Account
    Wednesday:
    • -- GDP
    CAD

    New housing price index for the month of January came in at -0.1% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected. Existing home sales for the month of February came in at -9.1% m/m vs -4% m/m as expected. Abysmal numbers showing price uncertainty present in Canadian housing market. Manufacturing sales in January have jumped to 1% m/m vs 0.4% m/m as expected with prior reading showing -1.3% m/m. Good number that will offset mainly poor data coming from Canada, apart from employment reports.

    This week we will have data on wholesale trade, inflation and consumption.

    Important news for CAD:

    Thursday:

    • -- Wholesale Trade
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Retail Sales
    JPY

    BOJ has left interest rate unchanged as expected. They concluded that Japan’s economy is expanding moderately but exports and output are affected by slowdown overseas. No changes in monetary policy and downgrades to the economic outlook were expected by the market and BOJ delivered. Governor Kuroda stated that momentum towards achieving 2% inflation target is maintained and emphasized that it is necessary to reach the target in order to achieve stable prices.

    This week we will have trade balance data, minutes from the latest BOJ meeting, national inflation data and preliminary manufacturing PMI number for the month of March.

    Important news for JPY:

    Monday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    • -- Industrial Production
    Wednesday:
    • -- BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
    CHF

    Important news for CHF:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Thursday:
    • -- SNB Interest Rate Decision

    This week we will have trade balance data and interest rate decision. SNB will not make any changes as they patiently follow moves from ECB.
     
  2. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 25 – Mar 29)

    USD

    FED has left the interest rate unchanged as expected. Labour market has remained strong and on average job gains have been solid. They will begin to slow balance sheet runoff in May and will end it in September if the economy evolves as expected. Economic growth has slowed from a solid rate in Q4 and indicators are pointing to slowing growth in household consumption and business investment. New dot plot forecast revealed that 11 out of 15 US policy makers no longer believe that a rate hike is necessary this year which is a serious downgrade from the 2 rate hikes that were previously expected. GDP growth for 2019 has been cut from 2.3% to 2.1% and to 1.9% in 2020 from 2%.

    This week we will have a great number of housing data, consumer confidence, trade balance data, final Q4 GDP reading and PCE inflation data.

    Important news for USD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Housing Starts
    • -- Building Permits
    • -- Consumer Confidence Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Thursday:
    • -- GDP
    • -- Pending Home Sales
    Friday:
    • -- PCE
    • -- New Home Sales
    EUR

    Trade balance data for January came in at EUR17bn vs EUR15bn as expected. Both exports and imports rose with first coming in at 0.8% m/m and latter 0.3% m/m. ZEW survey of economic sentiment came in at -2.5 vs -18.7 as expected signalling that although the reading is in negative territory there are hopes that the worst is behind us as major economic risks are viewed as less dramatic now.

    Preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in March came in at 47.6 vs 49.5 as expected. The huge plunge in the number was driven by devastating manufacturing PMI from Germany that came in at 44.7 vs 48 as expected for the lowest reading since August 2012. French manufacturing PMI dipped into contraction coming in at 49.8. Services PMI came in as expected while composite was dragged lower by manufacturing data. EUR is lower across the markets against all of the majors as worries about the health of EU economy mount. Yields on German 10-year bond turn negative for the first time since October 2016.

    This week we will have data on consumer confidence and sentiment for the EU as well as inflation, consumption and employment data from Germany.

    Important news for EUR:

    Monday:

    • -- Ifo Business Climate (Germany)
    Thursday:
    • -- Economic Sentiment Indicator
    • -- Consumer Confidence Index
    • -- CPI (Germany)
    Friday:
    • -- Retail Sales (Germany)
    • -- Unemployment Change (Germany)
    • -- Unemployment Rate (Germany)
    GBP

    Average weekly earnings came in at 3.4% 3m/y as the prior quarter but 3.2% 3m/y was expected so a nice beat there. The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% vs 4% as expected for an additional beat. Employment change came in at 222k vs 120k for a fantastic beat. Jobless claims change came in at 27k vs 14.2k the previous month for the only dent in strong employment report. In the normal circumstances this report would bump BOE toward raising the rates and push GBP higher, however due to uncertainties surrounding Brexit this report will not have that effect.

    Inflation number for the month of February came in at 0.5% m/m as expected and 1.9% y/y vs 1.8% y/y. Core CPI came in at 1.8% y/y vs 1.9% y/y as expected. Data came in-line with expectations with small uptick in headline inflation being offset by small dip in core reading. Retail sales for the month of February came in at 0.4% m/m vs -0.4% m/m as expected. On the yearly level they are now at 4% y/y vs 3.3% y/y as expected. Another batch of stronger than expected data that will not have the desired effect due to the Brexit concerns. BOE has left the official bank rate unchanged as expected noting concerns regarding the Brexit process.

    Parliament speaker John Bercow has ruled out the third meaningful vote stating that the UK government could not bring the same exact Brexit deal for another vote. PM May has written to EU seeking extension of Brexit until June 30 and officially announced it on Wednesday. That proposal was not accepted and Brexit is pushed back to at least April 12. This gives PM May a chance to organize a third meaningful vote and if it succeeds the UK will leave EU on May 22. If the vote fails new plan for leaving the EU has to be proposed by April 12. Alternatively, hard Brexit or long delay followed by new leadership can occur.

    This week we will have final Q4 GDP reading and business investment as well as possible third meaningful vote on Brexit deal.

    Important news for GBP:

    • -- Third Meaningful Vote (tentative)
    Friday:
    • -- GDP
    • -- Business Investment
    AUD

    RBA meeting minutes noted “significant uncertainties” on the economic outlook. Scenarios for the rate moves are more evenly balanced than they had been last year and there is no strong case for near-term move in rates. Labour market continues to improve and unemployment is seen falling to 4.75%. Consumption outlook is uncertain due to the risk of further fall in housing prices.

    Employment change showed 4.9k vs 15k as expected for a miss but the number was quickly offset by fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% which is a huge positive since it moves toward RBAs projection. On the negative side we have a miss in the headline number, the fact that the number of full-time workers dropped and that rise in employment change was all due to part time employment change. Participation rate also ticked down to 65.6%.

    This week on Sunday manufacturing and non-manufacturing data from China will be published.

    Important news for AUD:

    Sunday:

    • -- Manufacturing PMI (China)
    • -- Non-manufacturing PMI (China)
    NZD

    GDT price index came in at 1.9% for the eighth straight auction with higher prices. Q4 GDP came in at 0.6% q/q as expected with 2.3% y/y vs 2.5% y/y as expected. Main contributor to the GDP growth were service industries at 0.9%. Slowdown in the economy in H2 2018 is visible but it is not as big, therefore a rebound can be expected in Q1 2019 which pushes potential rate cut further in time.

    This week we will have trade balance data, housing data and main event of the week will be RBNZ rate decision. It is expected that rate will stay the same. Recent data have indicated to the market that a possible rate cut will not come soon and now we will have a chance to hear RBNZ assessment of the incoming data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Monday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Wednesday:
    • -- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
    • -- RBNZ Rate Statement
    Thursday:
    • -- Building Permits
    CAD

    Canadian budget projections see this year’s deficit at CAD$14.9bn vs CAD$18.1bn the previous projection. GDP growth for 2019 is assumed at 1.8% for 2019 and 1.6% for 2020. There will be incentives on mortgage costs in an attempt to boost the falling housing market. Revenues will be used for social programs and transfers, including skill training, support for seniors and greater prescription coverage.

    Wholesale trade in January came in at 0.6% m/m as expected with prior reading showing 0.3% m/m. January retail sales came in at -0.3% m/m vs 0.4% m/m as expected. Much weaker than expected reading with sales falling in 4 of 11 subsectors representing 52% of total retail trade. The main culprit for the drop in retail sales were motor vehicles and parts which dropped 1.5%. CPI for the month of February came in at 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% m/m as expected and 1.5% y/y vs 1.4% y/y as expected. All three core measures came in as expected: common and core at 1.8% y/y and trimmed at 1.9% y/y. Inflation figures can deter BOC for considering rate cuts, but now limelight is on growth which makes next week’s GDP reading all the more important.

    This week we will have trade balance data and GDP for the month of January.

    Important news for CAD:

    Wednesday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Friday:
    • -- GDP
    JPY

    Trade balance data for the month of February came in at JPY339bn vs JPY305.1bn as expected. Nice beat on the reading but it was caused by imports falling faster than exports. Imports fell -6.7% y/y which is a biggest drop in last 2 years while exports fell -1.2% y/y which although still negative is a big improvement from the prior month when they were -8.4% y/y. Cars and semiconductors were the main culprit for falling exports. Exports to US, China and Europe all rose, exports to Asia fell. Industrial production for the month of January came in at -3.4% m/m vs -3.7% m/m as expected and 0.3% y/y vs 0% y/y as expected. Slightly better figures but still very weak reading.

    National inflation for the month of February came in at 0.2% y/y vs 0.3% y/y as expected. Ex-food came in at 0.7% y/y vs 0.8% y/y as expected and ex-food and energy came in at 0.4% y/y as expected. All are miles away from targeted 2%. Preliminary manufacturing PMI came in unchanged at 48.9. Slowing demand from domestic and international markets caused the sharpest cutback in output volumes in almost three years. New orders component plunged as well.

    This week we will have data on inflation from Tokyo area, employment and consumption data as well as industrial production data.

    Important news for JPY:

    Friday:

    • -- Tokyo area CPI
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Jobs to Applicants Ratio
    • -- Retail Sales
    • -- Industrial Production
    CHF

    February trade balance came in at CHF3.13bn vs CHF3.04bn the previous month. Exports rose 1.3% m/m while imports fell -3% m/m. Steady rise in exports is satisfying.

    SNB has left interest rate unchanged as expected. They stated that CHF remains highly valued and that situation in FX markets remains fragile. Downgrades have been made to inflation and it is now seen at 0.3% for 2019 and 0.6% for 2020. Governor Jordan stated that negative rates remain an important instrument for the foreseeable future.
     
  3. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 1 – Apr 5)

    USD

    The US yield curve is inverted and according to the past evidence it points to a recession. The 10-year yield was lower than the 3m yield. After yield curve inverts it can take substantial time, usually more than 11 months, for the recession to occur. Boston FED President Eric Rosengren suggested a change in the Fed's reinvestment policy in order to fight the yield curve. In his opinion FED should be buying the short end of the curve in order to push short-term borrowing lower and long-term financing higher.

    Consumer confidence dropped in March to 124.1 vs 132.5 as expected, rather big drop and widely unexpected. Present situation came in at 160.6 vs 173.5 and expectations slid down to 99.8 vs 103.4 as expected. This is the largest one month drop since 2008. One of the leading indicators painting not so bright picture which can trigger risk off mode in the markets.

    Trade balance for the month of January came in at -$51.5bn vs -$57bn as expected. Exports were up 0.9% m/m while imports were down -2.6% m/m. Goods deficit was $73.29bn while services surplus came in at $22.14 bn. Trade balance deficit with China came in at $34.47bn vs $36.83bn the previous month. Slowing imports are not that satisfying but lowering of deficit overall and with China in particular is positive for USD. Services surplus has smashed expectations.

    Final reading of Q4 GDP for 2018 came in at 2.2% q/q vs 2.3% q/q as expected and 3% y/y vs 3.1% y/y as expected. Growth was mainly fuelled by president Trump’s tax cuts which resulted in corporate profits after tax of 16.2%. Core PCE number came in at 1.8% y/y vs 1.9% y/y as expected. The FED pays special attention to core PCE so miss is worrying. Personal income and personal spending also came in lower as expected.

    This week we will have data on consumption, durable goods, business inventories, final PMI data and on Friday the big event, NFP. This time headline number will be monitored closely due to very low number from the previous month. Expected number is 170k.

    Important news for USD:

    Monday:

    • -- Retail Sales
    • -- ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • -- Business Inventories
    Tuesday:
    • -- Durable Goods
    Wednesday:
    • -- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
    • -- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
    Friday:
    • -- Nonfarm Payrolls
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Average Hourly Earnings
    EUR

    Germany IFO business climate index for the month of March came in at 99.6 vs 98.5 as expected. Both expectations and current assessment beat the expectations coming in at 95.6 and 103.8 respectively. This is a breath of fresh air for the data coming in from Europe after abysmal PMI data last week. These figures support German GDP growth forecast of 0.6% for 2019. Although numbers indicate that the worst is behind Germany and forward-looking picture looks brighter than expected weak GDP forecast still looms. Germany inflation data for the month of March came in at 1.5% y/y vs 1.6% y/y as expected. Lower than expected inflation can drag down the inflation of the EU as a whole. Retail Sales in the month of February for Germany came in at 0.9% m/m vs -1% m/m as expected adding further support to Q1 GDP from consumption. German unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5% the previous month indicating tighter labour market conditions.

    This week we will have final PMI data, preliminary inflation data for the month of March, employment and consumption data as well as factory and industrial production data from Germany and accounts from the latest monetary policy meeting.

    Important news for EUR:

    Monday:

    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- CPI
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    Wednesday:
    • -- Markit Services PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Composite PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Retail Sales
    Thursday:
    • -- Factory Orders (Germany)
    • -- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
    Friday:
    • -- Industrial Production (Germany)
    GBP

    Brexit happenings dominated the week. Parliament and the government battle for control of Brexit and several indicative votes have been organized although none of them are binding. None of the amendments got a clear majority in the Parliament so PM May continued to push for the third meaningful vote on her proposal, but Speaker John Bercow insists it must be meaningfully different from previously defeated versions. PM May offered her resignation after her deal passes. In order to get her deal to pass for voting PM May has split it in half. First half is a withdrawal agreement and second half is the political declaration. If Parliament approves of her withdrawal agreement Brexit date will be moved to May 22 giving her more time to find satisfying solution. The deal has been defeated with 286-344 and GBPUSD fell below 1.30. This is the third time that PM’s deal did not pass in the Parliament.

    This week we will have final PMI data as well as continuation of Brexit saga.

    Important news for GBP:

    Monday:

    • -- Second Round of Indicative Votes
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    Tuesday:
    • -- Markit Construction PMI
    Wednesday:
    • -- Markit Services PMI
    AUD

    Industrial profits in China for the months of January-February (they are combined in order to smooth the out distortions caused by China’s Lunar New Year) came in -14% y/y. This is the biggest fall since 2011 and cause of great concern not only for Australia due to its proximity to China but to whole World as it adds more to the ongoing global slowdown. The situation can improve in Q2 thanks to monetary easing and stimulus, but it is yet to be seen if it will.

    This week we will have Caixin PMIs from China, housing data, consumption and trade balance data. Main event will be RBA’s rate decision and given the RBNZ’s dovish decision markets will expect for RBA to follow the suit. Global slowdown, declining consumption and falling housing market may spur RBA to react by announcing that next move will likely be lower.

    Important news for AUD:

    Monday:

    • -- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (China)
    Tuesday:
    • -- RBA Interest Rate Decision
    • -- RBA Rate Statement
    • -- Building Approvals
    Wednesday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    • -- Retail Sales
    • -- Caixin Services PMI (China)
    • -- Caixin Composite PMI (China)
    NZD

    Trade balance data for the month of February came in at NZD12m vs -NZD200m as expected. Modest surplus but better than expected deficit. Exports rose to NZD4.82bn vs NZD4.7bn for always good news keeping NZD supported ahead of RBNZ rate decision.

    RBNZ has kept the cash rate at 1.75% as widely expected however they said that next rate move is likely down. This change from previously neutral stance has caused NZD to plunge across the markets. Inflation and outlook risks have shifted to the downside according to RBNZ and it is necessary to keep low interest rates in order to support economic growth in 2019. Increased government spending and investment will work along with low interest rates in attaining that goal. The next RBNZ meeting is in May and markets start to price in rate hike for November’s meeting and some banks predict first cut in August. Business confidence and activity outlook data put additional pressure on kiwi coming in respectively at -38 vs -30.9 the previous month and 6.3 vs 10.5 the previous month.

    This week we will have bi-weekly GDT auction.

    Important news for NZD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- GDT Price Index
    CAD

    Trade balance for the month of January came in at -CAD4.25bn vs -CAD3.55bn as expected. Trade deficit shrank from the previous month but still came worse than expected. Exports rose 2.9% m/m and imports rose 1.5% m/m. The largest positive contributor to exports was the energy sector that came in at 14% m/m. Exports are up 3.1% y/y while imports are up 8.3% y/y.

    January GDP came in at 0.3% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected and 1.6% y/y vs 1.3% y/y as expected. Goods producing sectors contributed with 0.6% and services producing sectors contributed with 0.2%. Manufacturing came in at 1.5% offsetting losses in previous months and construction rose 1.9% for largest expansion since July 2013. The reading beat the markets expectations and CAD has strengthened against all majors.

    This week we will have final PMI readings as well as employment data on Friday. Please note that Canadian employment data will be released at same time as US employment data which can cause increased volatility on USDCAD pair.

    Important news for CAD:

    Monday:

    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    • -- BOC Governor Poloz Speech
    Thursday:
    • -- Ivey PMI
    Friday
    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    JPY

    Tokyo area inflation for the month of March came in line with expectations at 0.9% y/y. CPI excluding fresh food came in at 1.1% y/y as expected. The unemployment rate dropped down to 2.3% from 2.5%. Retail sales missed coming in at 0.2% m/m vs 1% m/m as expected and 0.4% y/y vs 1% y/y as expected. With this kind of low consumption chances of inflation rising are very slim. Industrial production for the month of February came in at 1.4% m/m as expected.

    This week we will have Tankan indices, manufacturing and services PMI and household spending data.

    Important news for JPY:

    Monday:

    • -- BOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index
    • -- BOJ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
    • -- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
    Wednesday:
    • -- Nikkei Services PMI
    Friday
    • -- Household Spending
    • -- Labour Cash Earnings
    CHF

    Investor sentiment for the month of March, which measures expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months, fell to -26.9 vs -16.6 the previous month.

    This week we will have consumption and inflation data.

    Important news for CHF:

    Monday:

    • -- Retail Sales
    Tuesday:
    • -- CPI
     
  4. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 8 – Apr 12)

    USD

    February retail sales came in at -0.2% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected. Ex autos category came in at -0.4% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected. ISM manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at 55.3 vs 54.5 as expected. Beating on the reading and higher than previous number of 54.2. New orders, employment and prices paid components of the reading all heftily beat the previous reading. ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 56.1 vs 58 as expected. Considerable drop in new orders but the index is still at very high levels. Preliminary February durable goods came in at -1.6% vs -1.8% as expected. Non-defence ex air category came in at -0.1% vs 0.1% as expected. Mixed bag of data with numbers close to expectations.

    NFP headline for the month of March came in at 196k vs 177k as expected, above 6-month average of 190k showing that February number was just a one-off. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%. Participation rate dropped to 63% from 63.2 the previous month and average hourly earnings dropped as well to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y the previous month. Employment in manufacturing sector came in negative 6k vs 10k as expected for the first decline in the sector since October 2016. Drop in earnings will have negative impact on USD.

    This week we will have data on factor orders, inflation, budget balance and FOMC minutes that should give us more insight into FED’s decision process.

    Important news for USD:

    Monday:

    • -- Factory Orders
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- FOMC Minutes
    • -- Federal Budget Balance
    EUR

    Preliminary CPI for the month of March came in at 1.4% y/y vs 1.5% y/y as expected. Core CPI number came in at 0.8% y/y vs 0.9% y/y as expected with prior reading showing 1% y/y. Inflation is moving in the opposite direction from the targeted 2% rate. Drop in core reading is especially worrisome. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 7.8% but the fall in unemployment is still not translating into a rise in inflation as the figures above demonstrate. Final services PMI for the EU came in at 53.3 vs 52.7 preliminary. Better reading was propped by big gains in Italy and Spain. February retail sales came in at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected and 2.8% y/y vs 2.3% y/y as expected giving some uplift to Q1 economic conditions. German factory orders came in at -4.2% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected. Abysmal reading showing the biggest drop in last 2 years. German GDP growth forecast was cut by the leading five economic institutes in Germany to 0.8% from previous forecast of 1.9%. ECB minutes show that ECB’s view was that solid growth will return later in 2019. Industrial production came in at 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% m/m as expected due to the jump in construction activity alleviating some pressures from German economy.

    This week we will have data on industrial production, European Summit deciding on Brexit extension and centre stage will be taken by ECB interest rate decision and press conference by Governor Draghi later on. Interest rate is expected to stay the same but due to mixed data coming in from the EU (Services PMIs and retail sales are up, inflation, manufacturing PMI and German factory orders are down) we may see further downgrades to economic outlook.

    Important news for EUR:

    Wednesday:

    • -- European Summit
    • -- ECB Interest Rate Decision
    • -- ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
    Friday:
    • -- Industrial Production
    GBP

    Manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at a whopping 55.1 vs 51.2 as expected. On the surface it looks like a huge beat however stockpiling due to Brexit uncertainty produced this high reading. Stocks of purchases component came in at 66.2 which is a new G7 record. Services PMI dropped to contraction territory coming in at 48.9 vs 50.9 as expected which brought composite PMI down to 50. Right on the edge.

    According to the model created by Goldman Sachs that measures costs has UK suffered due to Brexit, they amount to £600m per week since 2016 referendum and total nearly 2.5% of GDP. Parliament voted in favour of a bill that would block a no-deal Brexit (by one vote) suggesting that PM May will have to ask for an extension beyond April 12. EU will not accept another short extension of Article 50. The options from EU standpoint are to accept current deal or to take a long extension until the end of the year or March 2020. PM May has sent a letter to the EU proposing a Brexit extension until June 30 with an option for terminating the period early if any deal regarding UK leaving is ratified before this date.

    This week we will have data on GDP, industrial, manufacturing and construction output as well as trade balance. We will also have continuation of Brexit saga in last week before the deadline on Friday April 12.

    Important news for GBP:

    Wednesday:

    • -- GDP
    • -- Industrial Production
    • -- Manufacturing Production
    • -- Construction Output
    • -- Trade Balance
    AUD

    Official manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at 50.5 vs 49.6 as expected while services came in at 54.8 vs 54 as expected. Caixin manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at 50.8 vs 50 as expected. Manufacturing goes back to expansion after 4 months which is great news indicating that stimulus measures are producing an impact. Caixin services PMI came in at 54.4 vs 52.3 for a big jump which also pulled composite PMI to 52.9.

    RBA has left cash rate at 1.5% as widely expected citing strong labour market and dropping of the unemployment rate to 4.9% which led to some increase in growth of wages. Continued improvement in the labour market is expected to lead to further rises in wages, although this is expected to be a gradual process. They state that global growth has slowed down and that downside risks have increased. Rather weak growth in household consumption is caused by periods of weakness in real household income and the adjustment in housing market.

    The budget for 2019-20 has been announced and it shows a surplus of AUD7.1bn. GDP growth is seen at 2.75% and CPI is seen at 2.25%. There is a proposal for AUD158bn in tax cuts over the next 10 years to provide some help for Australian consumer.

    Retail sales for the month of February came in at 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected for a huge beat. Seems like RBA had this info so they decided not to go for dovish stance in their statement. Trade balance for the same month came in at AUD4.81bn vs AUD3.7bn. Surplus continues to grow but it was spurred by lower imports that came in at -1% m/m while exports were unchanged.

    This week we will have RBA financial stability review and speech from deputy governor Debelle. From China we will get data on inflation and trade balance.

    Important news for AUD:

    Wednesday:

    • -- RBA Deputy Governor Debelle Speech
    Thursday:
    • -- CPI (China)
    Friday:
    • -- Trade Balance (China)
    • -- Exports (China)
    • -- Imports (China)
    • -- RBA Financial Stability Review
    NZD

    GDT price index came in at 0.8% for a ninth consecutive auction with gains in a row.

    This week we will have data on electronic card retail sales and manufacturing index.

    Important news for AUD:

    Friday:

    • -- Electronic Card Retail Sales
    • -- BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
    CAD

    Governor Poloz emphasized BOC data dependence when it comes to a decision regarding rates. Current data shows a “mixed picture” that must be carefully monitored. Outlook continues to warrant rates that are below neutral range. BOC is not forecasting a recession and we may need to get accustomed to seeing curve inversion more often. He considers core inflation close to 2% a big success. Ivey PMI for the month of March came in at 54.3 vs 50.6 the previous month. Another beating from Canadian data.

    Net change in employment for the month of March came in negative 7.2k vs 6k as expected. Both full-time and part-time employment were negative with former coming in at -6.4k and later coming in at -0.9k. Average hourly rate came in at 2.3% y/y vs 2.2% y/y as expected. This was the first drop in employment change in 7 months with private sector leading the way with -17.3k jobs. Rising wages will be welcomed by BOC.

    This week we will have data on housing.

    Important news for CAD:

    Monday:

    • -- Housing Starts
    • -- Building Permits
    JPY

    Tankan survey results came in worse than expected showing that sentiment among the largest producers softened while capex barely beat the forecast. Final Nikkei manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at 49.2 vs 48.9 preliminary. Demand remains weak pulling the output lower. Nikkei services PMI also came in weaker than expected at 52.0.

    Household spending for the month of February came in at 1.7% y/y vs 1.9% y/y due to dreadful earnings. Labour cash earnings came in at -0.8% y/y vs 0.9% y/y as expected for the second straight y/y drop. Real cash earnings came in at -1.1% y/y vs 0.8% y/y as expected. Downward spiral of lower earnings which leads to lower consumption will not be able to lift inflation towards magical target of 2%.

    This week we will have data on consumer confidence and machinery orders as well as speech from BOJ governor Kuroda.

    Important news for JPY:

    Monday:

    • -- Consumer Confidence
    Wednesday:
    • -- BOJ Governor Kuroda Speech
    • -- Machinery Orders
    CHF

    Retail sales in February came in at -0.2% y/y vs -0.4% y/y as expected and 0.3% m/m. Overall consumption remains sluggish, not showing much confidence in Swiss economy. SNB has reiterated their pledge to intervene in the FX market if necessary and added that negative rates are essential for Swiss economy. Both headline and core CPI for the month of March came in at 0.5% y/y vs 0.4% y/y as expected. This small beating will be well received by SNB, especially rise in the core number, however numbers are still far from targeted 2% level.

    This week we will have employment data.

    Important news for CHF:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Unemployment Rate
     
  5. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 15 – Apr 19)

    Please note that Friday 19 is Good Friday, due to the holiday liquidity will be thin and volatile moves are possible.

    USD

    IMF cut global growth for 2019 to 3.3% from 3.5% for the weakest expected growth in a decade. They left the 2020 projection at 3.6% citing US-China war and Brexit as main uncertainties. US growth is cut to 2.3% from 2.5% while forecast for 2020 growth is raised to 1.9% from 1.8%. Eurozone growth is cut to 1.3% from 1.6% while China’s remains above 6% at 6.3% for 2019 and 6.1% for 2020. Projected growth for advanced economies is 1.8% while emerging economies will grow at rate of 4.4%.

    March CPI inflation came in at 1.9% y/y vs 1.8% y/y as expected with prior reading showing 1.5% y/y. Beating on the headline number but core number dropped to 2% y/y vs 2.1% y/y as expected. Wages also dropped down to 1.3% y/y vs 1.9% y/y the previous month. Fall in core inflation and wages will give sign to FED that there is no need to rush with rate hikes. FOMC minutes showed majority of policy makers preaching patience. They see no need to raise rates in 2019.

    This week we will have data on industrial production, balance of trades, consumption and housing data and preliminary PMI data for the month of April.

    Important news for USD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- FED Industrial Production
    Wednesday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Thursday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    • -- Markit Services PMI
    • -- Markit Composite PMI
    Friday:
    • -- Housing Starts
    • -- Building Permits
    EUR

    German trade balance for the month of February came in at EUR17.9bn vs EUR16bn as expected. On the surface a great result, beating the expectation, however it was achieved with both exports and imports falling. Exports came in at -1.3% m/m vs -0.5% m/m as expected reflecting higher negative impact of global slowdown. Imports came in at -1.6% m/m vs -0.6% m/m as expected posing questions about weakening domestic demand. Italy’s debt to GDP ratio continues to expand and it is now projected to be at 132.6% for 2019.

    ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected stating that rates should stay unchanged at least until the end of 2019. ECB will keep rates low for as long as necessary to ensure sustained convergence of inflation toward the 2% target. Governor Draghi stated in opening statement that inflation will likely decline in the coming months but will increase in the medium term. Ample degrees of stimulus are still needed. Employment gains and wages underpin economy, other data continues to be weak, especially in manufacturing. During press conference Draghi stated that it is too early to decide on tiered negative rates, further analysis is needed. The outlook is worsening growth however risk of Eurozone recession remains low. Draghi reiterated that ECB is ready to use all instruments at their disposal which is a very dovish message. Markets took it as such and EUR fell against the majors.

    This week we will have data on sentiment in EU and Germany, final inflation rate for the month of March, trade balance data and preliminary PMI data for the month of April.

    Important news for EUR:

    Tuesday:

    • -- ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU and Germany)
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Trade Balance
    Thursday:
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Services PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Composite PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    GBP

    February GDP number came in at 0.2% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected and 0.3% 3m/m vs 0.2% 3m/m as expected. Encouraging beats signalling that UK’s economy is holding on in the midst of Brexit uncertainties. Both manufacturing and industrial output beat the expectations, however main cause of these good results is stockpiling due to the Brexit. Stockpiling is giving a boost to the economy now but it can be dangerous in the long run.

    EU leaders have given an extension to the UK until October 31 with review in June. This is longer than PM May was hoping for but shorter than initial EU offering so compromise has been struck. This also means that UK will participate in EU elections, which are to be held in late May, unless a deal is struck before May 22. Extension shows that neither sides are willing to go for no deal Brexit. However, this six months extension puts more uncertainty for business, particularly decisions on investments or expansions and can have potentially devastating effects on UK economy.

    This week we will have employment and wages data as well as data on inflation and consumption. Since Brexit is delayed and Parliament will be on recess due to Easter holidays next week we can expect higher weight to be given to the economic data.

    Important news for GBP:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Claimant Count Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Average Weekly Earnings
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    Thursday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    AUD

    RBA deputy governor Debelle assessed jobs market as surprisingly strong adding that leading indicators are strong. Tension between strength in jobs and weakness in output data is present not only in Australia but in many developed economies as well. Consumption growth was “considerable slower” in H2 of 2018 then RBA has expected and higher wages are needed for achieving inflation target. RBA could lower rates if the situation calls for it. This last statement suggests that RBA is in no rush to cut rates which has prompted Nomura to lower the probability of a rate cut. RBA Financial stability review showed that risks have increased in household sector and that consumption outlook is uncertain. Household debt levels remain high. Housing risks are considered manageable but they would increase in case of rise in the unemployment rate.

    Chinese CPI for the month of March came in at 2.3% y/y as expected. Prior reading was 1.5% and jump in the CPI number was due to higher food prices, especially pork. Rising oil prices have also contributed to the jump in inflation. Trade balance surplus came in at $32.64bn vs $7.05bn as expected on the backs of rising exports (14.2% y/y vs 7.3% y/y as expected) and falling imports (-7.6% y/y vs -1.3% y/y as expected).

    This week we will have meeting minutes from the latest RBA meeting as well as employment data. China will publish GDP and consumption data as well as data on industrial production and fixed investments.

    Important news for AUD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- RBA Meeting Minutes
    Wednesday:
    • -- GDP (China)
    • -- Retail Sales (China)
    • -- Industrial Production (China)
    • -- Fixed Asset Investment (China)
    Thursday:
    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    NZD

    Manufacturing PMI for the month of March came in at 51.9 vs 53.7 the previous month. Production and new order sub indexes were lower while employment sub index was higher. Electronic card sales came in at 0.7% y/y vs 3.4% y/y the previous month. Huge drop and considering that card sales constitute about 70% of core retail sales, this paints a bleak picture for the next retail sales as well as inflation report.

    This week we will have bi-weekly GDT and inflation data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- GDT Price Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    CAD

    Housing starts for the month of March came in at 192.5k vs 194k as expected. Building permits came in at -5.7% m/m vs 2% m/m as expected. Second straight month of declining building permits. Canadian real estate is facing issues led by Toronto and Vancouver. New housing price index stayed at 0% m/m as expected.

    This week we will have data on manufacturing sales, inflation, balance of trade and consumption.

    Important news for CAD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Manufacturing Sales
    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Thursday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    JPY

    Current account for the month of February showed bigger than expected surplus coming in at JPY2676.8bn. Trade balance for the same period came in at JPY489.2bn vs JPY591.3bn as expected. Trade tensions have lowered exports and as a result trade balance suffered.

    This week we will have data on balance of trade, industrial production, preliminary manufacturing PMI for the month of April and national inflation data.

    Important news for JPY:

    Wednesday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    • -- Industrial Production
    Thursday:
    • -- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    CHF

    The unemployment rate for the month of March came in at 2.4% as expected. Strong labour market, tight conditions still not transferring to inflation though.

    This week we will have data on balance of trade.

    Important news for CHF:

    Thursday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
     
  6. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 22 – Apr 26)

    Please note that Monday 22 is Easter Monday, due to the holiday liquidity will be thin and volatile moves are possible.

    USD

    Industrial production for the month of March came in at -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% m/m as expected. The miss that will not have great impact on USD although it doesn’t paint a bright picture about the US industrial complex. Trade balance for the month of February came in at -$49.4bn vs -$53.4bn as expected. Both exports and imports rose, 1.1% and 0.2% respectively. Goods deficit was $72.1bn while services surplus was $22.63bn. Trade deficit with China came in at -$24.76bn vs -$34.47bn deficit the previous month. Tariffs seem to work which will make president Trump very happy. Retail sales for the month of March came in at 1.6% m/m vs 1% m/m as expected. The reading was the strongest in 18 months. Control group was 1% m/m vs 0.4% m/m as expected. Initial jobless claims came in at 192k vs 205k as expected for a fresh new 50 year low.

    This week we will have housing and durable goods data with Q1 GDP on Friday. Atlanta FED has raised its GDP forecast to 2.8% while J.P. Morgan Chase sees it at 2.9% on the back of strong rise in control group of retail sales.

    Important news for USD:

    Monday:

    • -- Existing Home Sales
    Tuesday:
    • -- New Home Sales
    Thursday:
    • -- Durable Goods Orders
    Friday:
    • -- GDP
    EUR

    ZEW survey of current situation in Germany dropped to 5.5 from 11.1 the previous month while outlook improved to 3.1 from -3.6 the previous month. Improvement in the outlook is based on expectations that the global economy will recover in H2. Several ECB policymakers are said to doubt projections for growth rebound in H2 2019. They think that weakening growth in China, Brexit and trade tensions continue to weigh down.

    Preliminary PMI data for the month of April failed to ease concerns about economies in EU zone. German manufacturing PMI came in at 44.5 vs 45 as expected. Almost a negligible improvement from the last month’s reading of 44.1. Eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8 vs 48 as expected, dragged down by the reading from Germany. Services PMI also came below expectations thus dragging composite to 51.3 vs 51.8 as expected.

    This week we will have data on consumer confidence from EU and business climate in Germany.

    Important news for EUR:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Consumer Confidence Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- Ifo Business Climate (Germany)
    GBP

    The employment report came within expectations. Average hourly earnings came in at 3.5% 3m/y as expected and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.9%. GBP was not moved on this numbers. March CPI data came in at 0.2% m/m as expected and 1.9% y/y vs 2% y/y as expected. Core CPI also dipped on the year to 1.8% y/y vs 1.9% y/y as expected. ONS reports that decline in clothes and food prices as well as slower increase in computer games’ prices offset the rise in fuel prices. Markets didn’t react to the drop in inflation signalling that Brexit still takes centre stage regarding all matters with UK. Retail sales for the month of March came in at 1.1% m/m vs -0.3% m/m as expected. On the yearly level it came at 6.7% y/y vs 4.5% y/y as expected. These are great beats and ONS notes that mild weather boosted sales in March as food shops recovered following a weak February reading.

    The Parliament returns to work on Tuesday so there will be more talks about Brexit which could impact GBP.

    AUD

    RBA meeting minutes revealed that a rate cut would be “appropriate” if inflation stays low and the unemployment rate goes up. The board added that effects of lower rates will likely be smaller than in the past but they will add benefits to the economy via lower AUD and lower interest payments on loans. Since inflation is subdued, there is no need to raise rates in the near term and likelihood remains low.

    The employment report showed strong numbers adding to the RBA rhetoric of a strong labour market. Employment change came in at 25.7k vs 15k as expected for a healthy beat. Full time employment change was 48.3k, a very healthy number. Participation rate was higher at 65.7% which led to rise in the unemployment rate to 5% from the previous 4.9% but all in line with expectations.

    We had a large amount of data from China and none of them disappointed. Q1 GDP came in at 6.4% y/y vs 6.3% y/y. Retail sales for the month of March came in at 8.7% y/y vs 8.4% y/y as expected. Industrial production came in at 8.5% y/y vs 5.9% y/y as expected. Huge beat on the industrial production number pushed AUD higher. Positive readings show that government stimulus is producing effects. This may ease the worries around the Globe about China slowdown and it can support stumbling national economies.

    This week we will have inflation data.

    Important news for AUD:

    Wednesday:

    • -- CPI
    NZD

    Services PMI for the month of March came in at 52.9 vs 53.6 the previous month. New orders component dropped to the lowest since September 2012. After last week’s lower manufacturing PMI now, services are also weaker. RBNZ governor Orr confirmed that monetary policy easing bias remains due to softer economic conditions from Europe, US and China.

    CPI for the Q1 of 2019 came in at 0.1% q/q vs 0.3% q/q as expected and 1.5% y/y vs 1.7% y/y as expected. Misses in inflation, much lower than expected, will add more fuel to the possibility of a rate cut in May.

    This week we will have balance of trade data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Friday:

    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    CAD

    Existing home sales came in at 0.9% vs 2% as expected with prior reading showing -9.1%. Decent rebound from the previous month, but weaker than expected. Housing market continues to pose problems for the Canadian economy. Western Canada sales are “more than 20% below the 10-year average for the month”. BOC Q1 business outlook survey came in at -0.6 vs 2.2 in the previous reading. Future sales dropped to -6% which is lowest in three years. Inflation is expected to decline but will stay within the inflation control range. Lowering of inflation expectations will push back BOC’s intent to raise rates, potentially making a U turn and considering cutting them.

    CPI numbers for the month of March came in as expected at 0.7% m/m and 1.9% y/y. Core median and core trim CPI number beat the expectations coming in at 2% y/y and 2.1% y/y respectively while core common came in at 1.8% y/y as expected. Swings up in core inflation were acknowledged in the market as CAD shot higher. Merchandise trade came in at -CAD2.9bn vs -CAD3.25bn as expected. More numbers adding to the CAD strength. Lower than expected trade deficit was achieved with both falling export (-1.3%) and falling imports (-1.6%). Retail sales for the month of February came in at 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% m/m as expected. This is the first positive reading after 8 months of negative or flat readings. Main driver for gains was gasoline. New car sales also contributed to the gains.

    This week BOC will take the centre stage with their rate decision and monetary policy report followed by the press conference. No changes are expected in regards to interest rate however possibly more upbeat tone can be expected from BOC on the backs of rising wages and core inflation.

    Important news for CAD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Wholesale Trade
    Wednesday:
    • -- BOC Interest Rate Decision
    • -- BOC Rate Statement
    • -- BOC Monetary Policy Report
    • -- BOC Press Conference
    JPY

    Trade Balance figures for the month of March came in at JPY528.5bn vs JPY363.2bn as expected. Exports fell -2.4% y/y vs -2.6% y/y as expected, not as bad as expected and imports missed coming in at 1.1% y/y vs 2.8% y/y as expected. Final industrial production data for the month of February came in at 0.7% m/m vs 1.4% m/m as expected. Preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 vs 49.2 the previous month. New export index fell to the lowest reading in the last 3 years caused by trade tensions. The employment component came in higher compared to the previous month. Headline national CPI came in at 0.5% y/y as expected. CPI excluding fresh food ticked up to 0.8% y/y vs 0.7% y/y as expected.

    This week we will have inflation data for the Tokyo area as well as employment and consumption data. The BOJ will also release its quarterly outlook and will probably downgrade its forecasts with bank possibly projecting inflation below 2% until 2022. Interest rate is expected to stay the same so outlook report will be of bigger importance.

    Important news for JPY:

    Thursday:

    • -- BOJ Interest Rate Decision
    • -- BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
    • -- BOJ Outlook Report
    • -- BOJ Press Conference
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Retail Sales
    CHF

    Over the weekend SNB chairman Jordan reiterated that there is no need to change monetary policy but that SNB has room to cut rates and intervene if the need arises. Trade balance for the month of March came in at CHF3.18bn vs CHF3.13bn the previous month. Exports were up 0.1% m/m while imports showed a drop of -3.2% m/m. Considering that imports were down -3% m/m the previous month there is a worrisome trend forming. Domestic demand continues to slump.

    This week we will have speech by SNB chairman Jordan.

    Important news for CHF:

    Friday:

    • -- SNB Chairman Jordan Speech
     
  7. TradersWay

    TradersWay TradersWay Representative

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2015
    Messages:
    775
    Likes Received:
    17
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 29 – May 3)

    Japan will be on a 10-day holiday which will lower liquidity in Asian session, thereby increasing chances of sudden volatile market movements, in addition most European markets will be closed on Wednesday due to Labour Day.

    USD

    Existing Home Sales dropped to 5.21 million in March vs 5.48 million the previous month. Building Permits and Housing Starts, that were published last week, both missed expectations. New Home Sales came in at 692k vs 649k for a nice beat. Median price of houses offered was lower than last year so housing market is not as strong as headline number shows.

    Preliminary reading of durable goods for the month of March came in at 2.7% m/m vs 0.8% m/m as expected. This is a huge beat giving more support to the USD strength across the markets and demonstrating the health of the US economy. Capital goods orders non-defence ex air category came in at 1.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m which is the highest reading since July 2017.

    Preliminary Q1 GDP came in at 3.2% vs 2.3% as expected. Net trade which added 1.03 basis points to GDP (largest in six years) and inventories which added 0.65 basis points to the GDP were main contributors. Personal consumption came in at 1.2% vs 1% as expected. Government spending added 0.41 basis points to GDP. 2084 Q4 GDP was revised down to 2.2% from 2.6% and inflation data came in weaker than expected and way below the previous reading. Surprisingly low inflation contributed to the rise in GDP. USD was higher on the headline but upon further inspection it was determined that it was all about temporary factors and that underlying consumption and business investment were soft. That brings concerns about Q2 GDP and sent USD lower.

    This week we will have inflation and housing data as well as PMI and trade balance data. We will have two main events of the week. First one is FOMC interest rate decision followed by press conference on Wednesday. Interest rate will not be changed however any new information on further guidance from FED will be closely monitored. The other event is NFP which traditionally comes every first Friday in the month. After abysmal data in February NFP has recovered in March and it is expected to continue on that pace with forecast lying at around 180k. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise to 3.4%.

    Important news for USD:

    Monday:

    • -- PCE
    Tuesday:
    • -- Pending Home Sales
    • -- Consumer Confidence Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- ISM Manufacturing PMI
    • -- FOMC Interest Rate Decision
    • -- FOMC Statement
    • -- FOMC Press Conference
    Thursday:
    • -- Factory Orders
    Friday:
    • -- Nonfarm Payrolls
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Average Hourly Earnings
    • -- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
    • -- Goods Trade Balance
    EUR

    Consumer confidence for the month of April came in at -7.9 vs -7 as expected. Confidence continues to deteriorate further as consumers do not see the light at the end of the tunnel for the EU. German Ifo business climate index came in at 99.2 vs 99.9 as expected. Business climate index declined as well as expectations and current assessment categories. Ifo economists now see German growth below previous forecast of 0.8% stating troubles in industrial sector and Brexit as main drags on German economy.

    This week we will have data on business conditions and consumer confidence, unemployment and final manufacturing PMI reading for the month of April. We will also have preliminary readings of Q1 GDP on Tuesday and inflation on Friday.

    Important news for EUR:

    Monday:

    • -- Business Climate
    • -- Consumer Confidence Index
    Tuesday:
    • -- GDP
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- CPI (Germany)
    Thursday:
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    GBP

    The new rumours surrounding the Brexit state that top lawmaker from PM May’s party will tell her that she will have to quit by the end of the June or other party members will again try to oust her out. May survived the last leadership challenge back in December meaning that her position as a party leader cannot be challenged within a year. However, the reports say that the chair of the 1922 Committee, Graham Brady, may be in on this coup here to see that rule is changed allowing for another vote of no confidence. BBC reports that there is no plan to bring back a withdrawal bill for voting next week and House of Commons leader Andrea Leadsom confirmed that next week there will be no Brexit items on the agenda.

    This week we will have PMI numbers and the main event will be the BOE interest rate decision accompanied by meeting minutes and speech by governor Carney. Interest rate is expected to stay the same so further assessment of the Brexit situation by BOE will be monitored.

    Important news for GBP:

    Wednesday:

    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    Thursday:
    • -- Markit Construction PMI
    • -- BOE Interest Rate Decision
    • -- BOE MPC Meeting Minutes
    • -- BOE Governor Carney Speech
    Friday:
    • -- Markit Services PMI
    AUD

    Headline Q1 inflation came in at 0% q/q vs 0.2% q/q as expected and 1.3% y/y vs 1.5% y/y as expected. Core inflation, trimmed mean, came in at 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% q/q as expected and 1.6% y/y vs 1.7% y/y as expected. Unexpected drop in inflation may move RBA in the rate cut direction since inflation is below their targeted band. Expectations of a rate cut for May 7 have jumped and are now at almost 40%. Rate cut for July is around 80% probability.

    This week we will have official PMI numbers from China as well as Caixin manufacturing PMI.

    Important news for AUD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- Manufacturing PMI (China)
    • -- Non-Manufacturing PMI (China)
    • -- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (China)
    NZD

    Trade balance for the month of March came in at NZD922m vs NZD131m as expected. Exports rose to NZD5.7bn for a healthy beat while imports fell to NZD4.77bn. Imports will be classified as underwhelming throwing some shade to domestic consumption, however beating on exports will be welcomed.

    This week we will have employment data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Wednesday:

    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    CAD

    BOC has left the rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. In the accompanying statement they have acknowledged that growth has slowed more than they previously forecast. Growth is expected to be slower than in H1 of 2019 than forecast. Investment and exports outside the energy sector have been negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty and the global slowdown. Weaker-than-anticipated housing and consumption also contributed to slower growth. BOC has removed hiking bias from their statement and slashed growth which sent CAD tumbling. Annualized Q4 GDP forecast was cut to 0.4% from 1.3%, Q1 GDP forecast was also cut to 0.3% from 0.8%
    and 2019 GDP growth forecast was cut to 1.2% from 1.7%.

    This week we will have GDP figure for the month of February along with manufacturing PMI.

    Important news for CAD:

    Tuesday:

    • -- GDP
    Wednesday:
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    JPY

    BOJ left the rates unchanged at -0.1% as widely expected. BOJ stated that they will keep low interest rates for the extended period of time, at least through around spring of 2020 to support the economy. Median CPI forecast for 2019/20 stays at 1.1% while for 2020/21 it is lowered to 1.4% from 1.5% in the January. Median GDP forecast for 2019/20 is lowered to 0.8% from 0.9% projected in January and 2020/21 is seen at 0.9%, down from 1% from January. BOJ admitted they will not reach inflation target of 2% for three more years. They will consider the introduction of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) lending facility, which would allow lending of ETFs that the Bank holds to market participants. Risks to price outlook and economic outlook are skewed to downside.

    Headline Tokyo CPI number for the month of April came in at 1.4% y/y vs 1.1% y/y as expected with CPI ex fresh food rising to 1.3% y/y vs 1.1% y/y as expected. Good numbers that are used as guide for the national CPI which will be published in 3 weeks. Jobless rate for the month of March came in higher at 2.5% vs 2.4% as expected and 2.3% the previous month. Preliminary industrial production came in at -0.9% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected while retail sales came in at 0.2% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected.

    CHF

    SNB Jordan said in his speech that rates will eventually turn to positive and it depends on inflation and FX developments. Negative rates remain necessary and supportive of the economy. Raising rates at this moment would hurt the economy.

    This week we will have data on consumption and all-important inflation.

    Important news for CHF:

    Thursday:

    • -- Retail Sales
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
     
  8. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 6 – May 10)

    USD

    Core component of FED’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, for the month of March came in at 1.6% y/y vs 1.7% y/y as expected. Following the reading shown in the last week’s GDP inflation surprised to the downside. Personal income came in at 0.1% vs 0.4% as expected but despite that personal consumption came in at 0.9% vs 0.7% as expected.

    FED has left the interest rate in the range of 2.25-2.50% as expected. Chairman Powell stated that incoming data, jobs and growth, has been better than expected while inflation was weaker than expected. FED attributed some transitory factors to inflation of 1.5% thus removing concerns about low inflation which gave strength to USD across the markets. It was assessed that global financial conditions have eased and risks around outlook have diminished. He also added that FED doesn’t see a strong case for moving rates in either direction.

    Nonfarm payrolls for the month of April came in at 263k vs 190k as expected. The unemployment rate dropped to a historic low of 3.6% vs 3.8% previously but it was achieved on the back of a lower participation rate that came in at 62.8% vs 63% previously. Average hourly earnings were weaker than expected at 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected and 3.2% y/y vs 3.3% y/y as expected. The headline number smashed expectations and it sent USD higher, however upon closer inspection the markets did not take well lower than expected wages and it sent USD back down. Advanced goods trade balance for the month of March came in at -$71.4bn vs -$73bn. Total exports were up 1% while imports were also up 0.9%. Very good trade report showing a narrowing of deficit with both exports and imports rising.

    This week we will have trade balance and inflation data.

    Important news for USD:

    Thursday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    EUR

    Final consumer confidence number for April came in at -7.9 as expected while economic confidence continues to fall further coming in at 104 vs 105 as expected. Business climate and industrial confidence also fell short of expectations while services confidence came in lie with expectations at 11.5.

    Preliminary Q1 GDP figures show growth of 0.4% q/q vs 0.3% q/q as expected and 1.2% y/y vs 1.1% y/y as expected. Much needed positive data from EU and in combination with unemployment data ticking down to 7.7% as it propped EUR higher. Spain GDP was the main driver coming in at 0.7% q/q and 2.4% y/y. Preliminary CPI figures came in at 1.7% y/y vs 1.6% y/y. Core CPI came in at 1.2% y/y vs 1% y/y as expected thus jumping to six-month high. There is a bit of an upside bias due to the Easter holiday so future reports will provide us more information whether inflationary pressures are sustainable.

    Final EU manufacturing PMI for the month of April came in at 47.9 vs 47.8 preliminary and 47.5 in March for the first increase since July of 2018. Small beat was achieved on the back of better PMI from Spain, Italy and France with French PMI coming in at 50, escaping from contraction territory. German PMI number was a bit weaker than preliminary reading suggested indicating that it is still a drag on EU as a whole.

    This week we will have final PMI readings for the month of April, consumption data as well as data on factory orders and industrial production from Germany.

    Important news for EUR:

    Monday:
    • -- Markit Services PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Composite PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Retail Sales
    Tuesday:
    • -- Factory Orders (Germany)
    Wednesday:
    • -- Industrial Production (Germany)
    GBP

    Brexit was taken off the agenda for the week which gave more significance to the economic data. In the cross-party talks between the Conservative and the Labour Party, Labour agreed to back second referendum if it can get changes to May’s deal or General Election. Priority will be to look for more concessions on a custom union within the deal and second priority will be holding of General Election.

    Manufacturing PMI for the month of April came in at 53.1 as expected. It is down from 55.1 the previous month due to drop in stock purchases from the record highs. New export orders are falling indicating that stockpiling still has a major influence on the number. Construction PMI came in at 50.5 vs 50.3 as expected. Services PMI came in at 50.4 vs 50.3 escaping from contraction territory from the previous month thus pushing the composite PMI to 50.9 vs 50.6 as expected.

    BOE left the bank rate unchanged at 0.75% with 0-0-9 votes (0 votes for rate hike, 0 votes for rate cut and 9 votes for no change) as expected. They acknowledge that Q1 GDP is likely boosted by stockpiling and that underlying growth is “slightly stronger” than expected in February. Forecasts for GDP growth have been moved up to 1.5% vs 1.2% previously for 2019, 1.6% vs 1.5% for 2020 and 2.1% vs 1.9% for 2021. Inflation on the other hand is expected to be lower than projected in one year’s time but higher than projected in three years’ time. Governor Carney stated in the press conference that although global tensions have eased UK domestic tensions still remain and added that if forecasts become true rate hikes will be required. Businesses are focused on short-term Brexit plans.

    This week we will have Q1 GDP and trade balance data as well as data on construction, industrial and manufacturing production. Brexit will again not be debated in the Parliament.

    Important news for GBP:

    Friday:
    • -- GDP
    • -- Industrial Production
    • -- Manufacturing Production
    • -- Construction Output
    • -- Trade Balance
    AUD

    RBA has said in April’s minutes that rate cut would be appropriate in case of "inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up.” Latest inflation data showed inflation falling and although unemployment ticked higher to 5%, it is still stable and trending down. There is about a 40% chance of a rate cut.

    PMI data from China for the month of April missed the expectations. Official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 vs 50.5 as expected. Output prices and new export orders were only subcategories that were higher than the previous month. Services came in at 54.3 vs 55.0 as expected. Caixin PMI came in at 50.2 vs 50.9 as expected.

    This week centre stage will be taken by the RBA rate decision. A rate cut is expected by analysts citing the fact that "inflation did not move higher and unemployment rate trended up". Recent data coming from Australia were not satisfactory, however RBA is still not pressured to cut rates so they can leave them for now. We will also get trade balance and consumption data from Australia. There will also be Caixin services PMI as well as trade balance and inflation data from China which will provide more information about stimulus effects introduced by Chinese government.

    Important news for AUD:

    Monday:
    • -- Caixin Services PMI (China)
    Tuesday:
    • -- RBA Interest Rate Decision
    • -- RBA Rate Statement
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    • -- Retail Sales
    Wednesday:
    • -- Trade Balance (China)
    • -- Exports (China)
    • -- Imports (China)
    Thursday:
    • -- CPI (China)
    Friday:
    • -- RBA Monetary Policy Statement
    NZD

    Employment report for the Q1 showed employment change coming in at -0.2% q/q vs 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y vs 2.2% y/y as expected for a big miss. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. Participation rate dropped to 70.4 and that lead to drop in the unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings came in at 1.1% q/q vs 0.8% q/q as expected but private wages both including and excluding overtime fell.

    This week’s main event will be the RBNZ rate decision. After the employment data rate cut expectations have risen to 55%. Additionally, we will have dairy auction and data on consumption via electronic cards.

    Important news for NZD:

    Tuesday:
    • -- GDT Price Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
    • -- RBNZ Rate Statement
    • -- RBNZ Press Conference
    Friday:
    • -- Electronic Card Retail Sales
    CAD

    February GDP data came in at -0.1% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected and 1.1% y/y vs 1.4% y/y as expected. Mining and quarrying excluding oil and gas contributed the most to the drop with -4.4%. Transportation and warehousing contributed with -1.6% which is the largest decline since June 2011. Manufacturing PMI for the month of April fell to 49.7 vs 50.5. Production, new orders and employment categories all fell below 50 expansion level. This is the first time Manufacturing PMI fell to contraction territory since February of 2016.

    This week we will have speech from Governor Poloz, Ivey PMI, trade balance and employment data.

    Important news for CAD:

    Monday:
    • -- BOC Governor Poloz Speech
    Tuesday:
    • -- Ivey PMI
    Thursday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Friday:
    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    JPY

    Japan was on holiday for the entire week and will be back on Tuesday.

    This week we will have PMI data, monetary policy meeting minutes, summary of options as well as data on household spending and earnings.

    Important news for JPY:

    Tuesday:
    • -- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
    Wednesday:
    • -- BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
    • -- Nikkei Services PMI
    Friday:
    • -- Household Spending
    • -- Labour Cash Earnings
    • -- BOJ Summary of Opinions
    CHF

    Retail sales for the month of March came in at -0.7% y/y vs -0.4% y/y as expected. SNB already said that the economy is too fragile for rate hikes and this data point will enforce that stance. Falling consumption will also negatively reflect GDP. Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 48.5 vs 51 as expected for a huge drop in manufacturing activity. This is first drop into contraction territory since December 2015. CPI for the month of April came in 0.2% m/m and 0.7% y/y as expected with core CPI coming in at 0.5% y/y also as expected.

    This week we will have employment data.

    Important news for CHF:

    Wednesday:
    • -- Unemployment Rate
     
  9. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 13 – May 17)

    USD

    President Trump announced over the weekend that tariffs on $200bn China goods will go up from 10% to 25% on Friday which made gaps on market opening. He added that further $325bn worth of goods will be tariffed “shortly”. China’s Minister of Commerce was quoted saying that “counter-measures” would be adopted if USA proceeds forward with the tariffs. On Friday tariffs have been raised and China replied that it is forced to retaliate. Tariffs are applied to goods that are coming out of Chinese ports from Friday May 10 which gives a 2 week period before they have effect on Chinese exports and US imports.

    Trade balance for the month of March came in at -$50bn vs -$50.1bn as expected with prior reading showing -$49.4bn. Exports rose 1% while imports rose 1.1%. It shows that demand for US goods and services increased around the globe and that domestic demand for imported goods is still strong. US-China trade deficit has been lowered to $20.75bn. Goods deficit was $72.4bn while services surplus was $22.4bn. Headline CPI for the month of April came in at 2% y/y vs 2.1% y/y as expected with prior reading showing 1.9% y/y. Core CPI figure came in at 2.1% y/y as expected. Real average hourly earnings came in at 1.2% y/y vs 1.3% y/y the previous month while real average weekly earnings came in at 0.9% y/y vs 1.4% y/y the previous month. Drop in earnings is a cause for concern for US workers.

    This week we will have consumption and housing data as well as data on industrial production. President Trump will make decision on auto tariffs on May 18.

    Important news for USD:

    Wednesday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    • -- Industrial Production
    • -- Business Inventories
    Thursday:
    • -- Housing Starts
    • -- Building Permits
    EUR

    Final services and composite PMI numbers came in a bit better than preliminary readings with services coming in at 52.8 and composite at 51.5. The improvement was reached on the back of stronger German services PMI while France, Spain and Italy services PMI came weaker than preliminary reading showed. Overall economic conditions stay subdued and Q2 rebound is still missing. Retail sales for the month of March came in flat at 0% m/m vs -0.1% m/m as expected.

    This week we will have data on industrial production, second reading of Q1 GDP from EU and preliminary reading of Germany’s Q1 GDP as well as employment data, trade balance data and inflation data.

    Important news for EUR:

    Tuesday:
    • -- Industrial Production
    • -- ZEW Economic Sentiment (EU and Germany)
    Wednesday:
    • -- GDP (EU and Germany)
    • -- Employment Change
    Thursday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    • -- Construction Output
    GBP

    Pressures are building for PM May to resign. She is coming under increasing pressure to set a leaving date and it has been reported that Members of Parliament from her ruling Conservative Party are demanding a firm timetable for her departure. She has rejected to quit and stands firm with her decision to leave after first phase of Brexit is completed. Cross-party talks are still going nowhere as neither side is willing to move its red lines.

    Preliminary Q1 GDP came in at 0.5% q/q as expected putting yearly figure at 1.8% as expected. Main contributor to the rise in GDP was stockpiling due to Brexit uncertainty. It contributed roughly 0.7% to the GDP figure. Total business investment have improved to 0.5% q/q vs -0.7% q/q as expected. This is a very welcoming surprise showing that businesses regain trust in the economy despite the surrounding Brexit uncertainties. Manufacturing and industrial production have beaten the expectations while construction output declined.

    This week we will have employment and wages data and meeting of 1922 Committee that could potentially seal PM May’s future as PM.

    Important news for GBP:

    Tuesday:
    • -- Claimant Count Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    • -- Average Weekly Earnings
    AUD

    China Caixin services PMI came in at 54.5 vs 54.2 as expected and composite PMI came in at 52.7 vs 52.9 the previous month. Effects of the reading were subdued by Trump’s message on tariffs. China has also eased its monetary policy by cutting reserve requirement ratio for small and midsized banks to 8%. This move is expected to improve lending conditions and thus add more stimulus to the economy. Trade balance for the month of April widely missed the expectations coming in at $13.84bn vs $34.56bn as expected. Exports were down on the year -2.7% y/y vs 3% y/y as expected, led by falls in smart devices as well as cars and related parts and imports beat the expectations by rising 4% y/y vs -2.1% y/y as expected. Imports were supported by crude oil. A huge drop in the trade surplus may prompt authorities to reconsider their position in negotiations with US. CPI for the month of April came in at 2.5% y/y as expected. It is an increase from 2.3% y/y the previous month and it was driven by food prices.

    Trade balance came in at AUD4949m vs AUD4480m for a nice beat on the headline number but it was achieved by both falling exports and falling imports. Retail sales for the month of March came in at 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m as expected. Retail sales excluding inflation for Q1 came in weaker than expected at -0.1% q/q and this will negatively reflect on Q1 GDP.

    RBA has decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. They acknowledged that inflation is noticeably lower than expected and that further improvement in the labour market is needed in order to reach the inflation target. Conditions remain soft, especially in housing market and domestic uncertainty remains around household spending and falling housing prices. They expect economy to grow at 2.75% in 2019, lower than 3% previously and inflation to be 1.75% in 2019 from 2% previously and 2% in 2020 from 2.25% previously. Assessment is that outlook for global economy is reasonable with risks tilted to the downside.

    This week we will have employment and wages data from Australia as well as consumption, industrial and investment data from China. Federal elections in Australia will be held on Saturday.

    Important news for AUD:

    Wednesday:
    • -- Wage Price Index
    • -- Retail Sales (China)
    • -- Industrial Production (China)
    • -- Fixed Asset Investment (China)
    Thursday:
    • -- Employment Change
    • -- Unemployment Rate
    NZD

    The GDP price auction came in at 0.4% thus continuing impressive streak of 11 consecutive months of rising dairy prices. Electronic card spending for the month of April came in at 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% m/m as expected. This measure is the main measure of retail sales in New Zealand.

    RBNZ has cut its cash rate 25bp to 1.50%. They now see official cash rate down to 1.38% in June of 2020 and 1.36% in September of 2020 thus making further rate cuts possible. Annual CPI is still seen at 1.7% by June 2020. Committee has reached the decision to cut rate by consensus due to weak domestic demand, projected growth and employment headwinds. Additional monetary stimulus is needed. Key downside risk was a larger than anticipated slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China and Australia. Governor Orr stated that US – China war is one of RBNZ’s major concerns and he is surprised by weaker downturn in business sentiment and consumer spending.

    This week we will have manufacturing PMI data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Friday:
    • -- Business NZ Manufacturing PMi
    CAD

    Ivey manufacturing PMI came in at 55.9 vs 54.3 for a nice beat. Although it is notoriously volatile data it still shows positive results from Canadian economy. New housing price index came in at 0.1% y/y as expected. Trade balance for the month of March came in at -$3.21bn vs -$2.4bn as expected. Exports rose 3.2% with energy and motor vehicles as leaders while imports rose 2.5% on the back of consumer goods. Canada-US surplus widened to $3.6bn while deficit with the rest of the world widened to all time worst at $6.8bn.

    Canadian employment report smashed expectations coming in at 106.5k vs 11.6k as expected, almost 10 times better than expected, for the biggest one-month jobs gain on record since 1976. Full-time employment came in at 73k while part-time employment came in at 33.6k. Participation rate climbed to 65.9% vs 65.7% the previous month and the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.7%. Drop in the unemployment rate is more impressive given the rise in the participation rate. Hourly wage for permanent employees came in at 2.6% vs 2.3% as expected.

    This week we will have inflation data, manufacturing sales data and review of financial system from BOC.

    Important news for CAD:

    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    Thursday:
    • -- Manufacturing Sales
    • -- BOC Financial System Review
    JPY

    Final manufacturing PMI for the month of April came in at 50.2 vs 49.2 the previous months. This is a 3-month high and it puts the manufacturing sector back into expansionary territory. Business confidence continues to rise, however new orders and output fell. Services PMI dropped a bit to 51.8 but overall composite was higher at 50.8 vs 50.4 the previous month. Household spending for the month of March came in at 2.1% y/y vs 1.6% y/y as expected as for a beat, however wages dropped heavily coming in at -1.9% y/y vs -0.5% y/y as expected. Increase in household spending is positive for inflation but it cannot be sustained if wages continue dropping.

    CHF

    The unemployment rate came in at 2.4% as expected reflecting once again tight labour market condition in the Swiss economy.
     
  10. katetrades

    katetrades TradersWay.com representative

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2013
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    7
    Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 20 – May 24)

    USD

    President Trump has been touting China over Twitter to accept a deal and not to retaliate since things will only get worse. China has announced that it will impose import tariffs on $60bn worth of US goods starting from June 1 and they will range between 5% – 25%. It is reported that China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, cut Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Also, there are talks about dumping US Treasuries.

    Advance retail sales for the month of April came in at -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% m/m as expected. Industrial production came in at -0.5% m/m vs 0% m/m as expected. The main culprit for the drop in industrial production was manufacturing output. Weaker than expected results lead Atlanta FED GDP tracker to lower growth in Q2 to 1.2% vs 1.6% as was previously seen. These data conflict with rhetoric about strong and robust US growth.

    This week we will have housing data, FOMC minutes, preliminary PMI data for the month of May as well as durable goods.

    Important news for USD:

    Tuesday:
    • -- Existing Home Sales
    Wednesday:
    • -- FOMC Minutes
    Thursday:
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI
    • -- Markit Services PMI
    • -- Markit Composite PMI
    • -- New Home Sales
    Friday:
    • -- Durable Goods
    EUR

    ZEW survey of the current situation in Germany for the month of May rose for the first time in eight months to 8.2 vs 6.3 as expected, however expectations for the outlook in both Germany and EU dropped into negative territory on the back of new escalations in US – China trade war. Preliminary German Q1 GDP came in at 0.4% q/q as expected for a great rebound after 0% q/q GDP in Q4 of 2018. President Trump and US administration have delayed imposing auto tariffs for 180 days which gave a relief rally to EUR.

    Trade balance for the month of March came in at EUR17.9bn vs EUR19.4bn as expected. Exports rose 0.9% m/m while imports rose 2.5% m/m which ultimately lead to the narrowing of the trade surplus. Rising exports amidst global tensions is a very welcoming sign for the EU economy. Final inflation numbers for the month of April came in at 1.7% y/y as expected while core CPI ticked to 1.3% y/y vs 1.2% y/y as expected. Rise in inflation is attributed to the Easter holiday.

    This week we will have data on consumer confidence and preliminary PMI data for the month of May as well as final Q1 GDP reading and Ifo business climate data from Germany.

    Important news for EUR:

    Tuesday:
    • -- Consumer Confidence
    Thursday:
    • -- GDP (Germany)
    • -- Markit Manufacturing PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Services PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Markit Composite PMI (EU, Germany, France)
    • -- Ifo Business Climate (Germany)
    GBP

    Employment data came mixed. The unemployment rate has dropped down to 3.8% from 3.9% previously but employment change came in at 99k vs 140k as expected with prior reading showing 179k. Average weekly earnings came in at 3.2% 3m/y vs 3.4% 3m/y as expected. A drop in wages is not very concerning when compared to the wage growth in previous years. Strong labour conditions are still present in Britain and were there no Brexit uncertainties BOE would be hiking rates.

    The cross-party talks are not progressing well, opposition party is hardening, with an increasing demand to hold a second referendum for any Brexit deal. Both main parties suffered in the local elections in early May and are set for humiliating results in the European Parliament polls on May 26 according to the recent survey. The government has officially announced a fourth vote on Brexit deal in the first week of June. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of an influential committee of backbench Tory MPs, confirmed that PM May is expected to resign whether or not the Brexit deal passes in June. She will resign after the results of the vote. A leadership election this summer is now certain. Labour party is looking more toward the second referendum claiming that cross-party talks have gone as far as they can.

    This week we will have data on inflation and consumption.

    Important news for GBP:

    Wednesday:
    • -- CPI
    Friday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    AUD

    Employment change came in at 28.4k vs 15k as expected. The unemployment rate came in higher at 5.2% vs 5% as expected while the previous figure was revised higher to 5.1%. Part of the jump in the unemployment rate can be attributed to rise in participation rate from 65.7% to 65.8%. Full time employment was -6.3k so the headline number was entirely made up from part time employment which came in at 34.7k. Overall not a bad report and RBA will not feel pressured to cut rates immediately. Market is pricing over 50% chance for a rate cut in June and many analysts call for rate cut in August. Wage price index for Q1 came in at 0.5% q/q vs 0.6% q/q as expected. Continuation of slow wage will keep inflation pressures low thus making inflation subdued.

    Chinese data came out weaker than expected with fixed asset investments coming in at 6.1% y/y vs 6.4% y/y as expected. Industrial production came in at 5.4% y/y vs 6.5% y/y as expected and retail sales came in at 7.2% y/y vs 8.6% y/y. NBS has looked at this data and stated that “China will implement countercyclical adjustments to maintain steady healthy economic development” meaning more stimulus.

    This week we will have minutes from the latest RBA meeting as well as Governor Lowe’s speech. Pressures are building for RBA to cut rates so the speech will be closely monitored in the markets.

    Important news for AUD:

    Tuesday:
    • -- RBA Meeting Minutes
    • -- RBA Governor Lowe Speech
    NZD

    Manufacturing PMI for the month of April came in at 53 vs 52 the previous month. Deliveries index holds high at 56.3. All indices are above 50, showing expansion but new orders cooled off to 52.4 which can be worrisome.

    This week we will have biweekly GDT auction, consumption data as well as trade balance data.

    Important news for NZD:

    Tuesday:
    • -- GDT Price Index
    Wednesday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    Friday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    CAD

    CPI for the month of April came in at 2% y/y as expected for an uptick from 1.9% y/y the previous month. Core measures came in a bit weaker than expected with median coming in at 1.9% y/y vs 2% y/y as expected, common came in at 1.8% y/y as expected and trim came in at 2% y/y vs 2.1% y/y as expected. Weaker core numbers are not very concerning since they still hover around the 2% target. Year over year, the main upward contributor to the CPI were mortgage interest costs (8.2%) and the main downward contributor were traveller accommodation (-9.6%). Manufacturing sales for the month of March came in at 2.1% m/m vs 1.5% m/m as expected with prior reading showing -0.2% m/m.

    This week we will have consumption data.

    Important news for CAD:

    Wednesday:
    • -- Retail Sales
    JPY

    During the week JPY has played its safe heaven role, strengthening during risk off situation. Japan will host G20 Summit in June and they announced that they will not intervene to seek solutions to US-China trade frictions. Finance minister Aso stated that additional easing would help the economy and characterized the problem in economy as lack of demand. Governor Kuroda reiterated the need for rates to stay low for a long period of time in order to support the economy. Current conditions warrant low rates until Spring of 2020 however it is possible for BOJ to keep rates low even after that period if conditions call for it. The Japanese government confirmed that the next round of trade talks with US will take place on May 21 in Washington.

    This week we will have preliminary Q1 GDP data, final industrial production data for the month of March, trade balance data, preliminary manufacturing PMI data for the month of May and national inflation data.

    Important news for JPY:

    Monday:
    • -- GDP
    • -- Industrial Production
    Wednesday:
    • -- Trade Balance
    • -- Exports
    • -- Imports
    Thursday:
    • -- Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
    Friday:
    • -- CPI
    CHF

    The CHF has benefited from risk off conditions and is up around 0.25% for the week.
    This week we will have data on industrial production.

    Important news for CHF:

    Thursday:
    • -- Industrial Production
     

Share This Page