Daily Market Report

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD bears return, USD/JPY in focus for BOJ: Asian Open Jan 23rd 2024​

Commodity currencies hint towards a risk off tone, with NZD/USD leading the way lower and AUD/USD looking set to follow. USD/JPY is also in focus for today's BOJ meeting.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• Wall Street gapped higher at the open and pushed to new record highs, although their smaller-ranged days and dubious candles outside of upper Keltner bands suggest sighs of exhaustion around current levels.
• The Nasdaq 100 closed beneath its open and nearly filled its opening gap, the S&P 500 closed the day flat with a potential island reversal day and the Dow Jones handed back most of its days, although did manage to close above its opening gap
• Commodity FX were the weakest major currencies overnight to hint at a slight risk-off tone to begin the week, with NZD leading CAD and AUD lower
• New Zealand’s services PMI contracted in December, falling -2.3 points to 48.8 and building a case for some RBNZ easing this year. As global PMIs tend to move in tandem, these early Asian reports can provide an indication of what to expect. And if European and US PMIs come in soft it could spark renewed bets of ECB and Fed easing. Australia’s PMI reports for manufacturing, services and composite are released by S&P global on Wednesday.
• Cold weather in the US and ongoing disruptions from the Red sea and war in Gaza saw crude oil prices rise as much as 4.3% on Monday. The bias remains bullish whilst prices hold above $72 and for them to head towards $77, near the 100 and 200-day EMA’s

Events in focus (AEDT):​

The BOJ (Bank of Japan) announce their interest rate decision and release their quarterly report today. In all likelihood, there will be no change. Yet with the BOJ’s appetite for surprises over the years then inaction is not guaranteed. And as they have a longstanding ultra-dovish policy, any change would surely have to be hawkish. If so, that could see a surge of yen strength and send USD/JPY lower.

• 09:00 – Australian business confidence (NAB)
• 14:00 – BOJ interest rate decision, quarterly report
• 16:00 – Singapore inflation
• 02:00 – Richmond Fed manufacturing and services

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rallied for a second consecutive day on Monday for its best 2-day performance in a month
• 140 stocks advanced (70%) and 43 declined (21.5%) while 17 remained unchanged (8.5%)
• 10 of its 11 sectors rose, led by consumer discretionary and staple stocks
• The ASX 200 is expected to open higher due to the positive lead from Wall Street and rise of SPI 200 futures overnight
• Yet the reversals on Wall Street and lower levels of volatility should warn against runaway gains for the ASX today
• Take note of the positive average returns either side of Australia day, which you can read more about in the article below

ASX 200 forecast: Forward testing the ASX 200 around Australia Day

ASX 200 forecast: Forward testing the ASX 200 around Australia Day

AUD/USD technical analysis (1-hour chart):​

A bearish outside day formed on AUD/USD to suggest the anticipated countertrend bounce from 0.6522 is already complete. The fact that we have dubious price action at record highs on Wall Street and commodity FX were the weakest majors on Monday adds to the case for at least a minor leg lower for AUD/USD.



The 1-hour chart shows a bearish breakout from a corrective channel with momentum now realigned with the dominant bearish trend on this timeframe. However, volumes fell following the breakout and RSI (2) was oversold, to suggest a bounce from current levels could be due before its next leg lower.



Bears could seek to fade into retracements towards the daily pivot point / 0.6580 lows with a stop above the daily R1 / 0.6600 handle, and target lower daily pivot points or cycle lows.

USD/JPY technical analysis (1-hour chart):​

I was partly right in yesterday’s European Open report; prices did rebound from the cycle lows, but it did not break lower to confirm a head and shoulders top. However, the market is trying to form a swing high, so perhaps we’ll see another leg lower heading into today’s BOJ announcement. But fore it to break the cycle lows, a hawkish twist is likely required.

A series of lower highs have formed on the 1-hour chart, and momentum is trying to turn lower which suggests another lower high has formed. Of so, bears could short below the daily pivot point and target the cycle lows near the daily R1. If prices advance to the daily R2, it could be another area to seek bearish reversal candles.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

US dollar bulls resurface, ASX 200 tests well for today: Asian Open Jan 24th 2024​

The US dollar shows the potential to continue higher despite a wall of key moving averages. And according to forward returns analysis, the two days prior to Australia Day tend to bode well for the ASX 200.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• Wall Street traded around its record highs and prior day’s small range, showing that neither bulls nor bears are ready to make their mark at these highs.
• That means we didn’t see the gap lower on the S&P 500 to mark a bearish island gap reversal, and that risk seems to be supported - even if it has paused for breath
• This also allowed AUD/USD and NZD/USD to hold their ground despite sending risk-off warning sigals on Monday
• There were no surprises from the BOJ who held policy unchanged yet again, although they downgraded their FY 2024 CPI forecast to further lower expectations of a policy change any time soon
• This resulted in a weaker yen during the Asian session, although we failed to see any breakout on either AUD/JPY or GBP/JPY, with the latter leaving a double top right on the 2015 high around 189
• Reports of a ¥1 trillion stimulus package failed to revive Chinese equity markets to any notable degree, but it did helped AUD/USD pop higher through the 0.66 resistance level before reverting lower to effectively close flat with a long-legged doji (long upper and lower wicks).
• Netflix reported much stronger-than-expected subscriber numbers in Q4,adding 13.1 million subscribers during its best quarter ever
• An inside day formed on WTI crude oil, although its lower wick probed the 73.60 – 74.00 zone outlined in yesterday’s European report – a level I noted as favourable for dips. Hopefully momentum can now turn high and head for the $77 target near the 200-day EMA and MA, and now looking for prices to hold above yesterday’s low.
• New Zealand inflation was above RBNZ’s own estimates, with non-tradable pointing towards a domestic inflation problem and likely pushing back expectations of an EBNZ cut any time soon

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 09:00 – Australian flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 10:50 – Japan’s trade balance
• 11:00 – Australian leading index
• 11:30 – Japan’s flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 19:15 – French flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 19:30 – Germany flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 20:00 – Eurozone flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 20:30 – UK flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)
• 01:45 – US flash PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite)

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rose for a third day, and is expected to open slightly higher with Wall Street and SPI futures ticking higher on Tuesday
• Forward returns analysis around Australia Day (Friday) shows that the ASX 200 has averaged a return of 0.17% two days prior to the public holiday (today)
• It’s average positive return is 0.84%, its average negative return is -0.9% with a win rate of 61%

US dollar index technical analysis (daily chart):​

The US dollar index formed a bullish outside day, although the upper and lower wick account for around two thirds of its daily range. This may be because the US dollar index is trapped between the 200-day EMAs and MAs, which are key levels for traders to watch. And whilst it closed slightly above the 200-day average, it met resistance at the 200-day EMA. Despite this, the bias is for another leg higher for the US dollar now its trend has paused for breath. I expect Fed members to continue pushing back on imminent rate cuts whenever the opportunity arises. And what could really seal the deal for another bullish leg is for today’s flash PMI data and Friday’s PCE inflation report to be hotter than liked.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

US dollar pares earlier losses, gold bears eye $2000: Asian Open. Jan 25th 2024​

Price action on the US dollar remains choppy, but the bias remains for a run for 104. And that could weigh on gold as bears eye a run towards $2000.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs rose in tandem, with manufacturing squeaking in its first expansion in nine months and at its fastest pace in 15.
• Wall Street once again gapped higher and pushed to new record highs before pulling back. But there's clearly no immediate appetite to short.
• Fed fund futures mow imply a 58.4% chance of a hold in March, with first cut tipped in May at 53.7% and another in June with a 52.7% probability. Will the Fed really cut twice in H1 with data like this? I'm not convinced myself, but we'll see...
• European PMIs
• BOC interest held their interest rate at 5%, although BOC governor pushed back on any loosening by saying it was “premature to discuss rate cuts” and the focus of the meeting was “very much on holding rates steady”. The statement highlighted a concern for the rate of underlying inflation.
• PMI data for the UK came in broadly better than expected, with services expanding faster and manufacturing contracting at a slower pace. The report cited “signs of renewed momentum” and business optimism for the economy over the next year. And with input costs rising, its adds to the case for the BOE holding rates higher for longer.
• Japan’s exports rose by an impressive 9.8% y/y in December to show global demand for their goods is on the rise. Exports to their largest trade partner, the US, rose 20.4% although imports from Australia sank by -31.4% y/y
• China’s equity markets leapt from their lows on news that the PBOC will slash reserve requirement ratio (RRR) 0.5% to free up liquidity
• Price action across forex majors remained choppy for some, with EUR/USD now trapped between the 100 and 50-day EMAs and a large upper wick, AUD/USD formed a second consecutive shooting star day and GBP/USD handed back half of its earlier gains to also form a potential shooting star.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 10:50 – Japan’s foreigner bond and stock investments
• 18:00 – German Ifo business sentiment
• 12:15 – ECB interest rate decision
• 12:30 – Canadian average earnings
• 12:30 – US GDP, jobless claims, durable goods orders, Chicago Fed national activity index
• 12:45 – ECB press conference
• 02:15 – ECB President Lagarde speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rose for a fourth day and left a small spinning top doji on the cash market, yet SPI futures markets continued higher overnight and Wall Street hit new record highs which points to a positive open today
• The day ahead of Australia Day has averaged negative returns of -0.04%, although the median return has been 0.9%. The win rate has been 51.6%, so it seems T-1 relative to Australia day is on the random side.
• Therefore, be prepared for a tighter range and perhaps a retracement lower from the open.

US dollar technical analysis (daily chart):​

The US dollar index closed back beneath the 200-day average yet above its 50-day average and EMA. Ultimately it remains within a choppy consolidation, but I continue to suspect its next leg will be higher. GDP data could set the tone for tomorrow’s PCE inflation report if growth (and prices) surpass expectations. The bias for the US dollar remains bullish whilst prices hold above gap support and for a move to 104 – a break above which brings 105 into focus.

Gold technical analysis (1-hour chart):​

A bearish engulfing day formed on gold and prices are back beneath $2020, a level gold has flirted with but mostly respected as support or resistance on a daily-close basis. The 1-hour chart also shows a bearish break, retest and swing high around that level with a bearish engulfing candle.



We saw some heavy selling above $2020 which was accompanied with negative delta volume – this means bears loaded up at the beginning of the move. Yet volumes diminished when prices fell below $2020, and the daily low fond support at a prior high-volume node to suggest a pullback.



My theory is that bears may want to fade into move up to but below $2020 and a stop above, for an anticipated move to the $2000 - $2005 area. A break above $2020 (allows some wriggle room) invalidates the bearish bias on this timeframe.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

USD/JPY holds ground heading into FOMC, breakout pending? Asian Open Jan 29th 2024​

Looking across the FX major pairs, USD/JPY appears to have the best odds of a breakout sooner than later, given its strong rally from the December.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• The US dollar rose for a fourth week, although momentum seems to lack enthusiasm looking at the small-ranged Doji on the weekly chart. Prices are also trapped between the 50 and 200-day EMA’s to underscore choppy trading conditions.
• AUD/USD fell for a fourth week and, like the US dollar index, remains in a choppy range on the daily chart. This serves as a reminder that forex traders may be best seeking intraday positions and not rely on a big breakout, especially with an FOMC meeting pending.
• Wall Street indices remain near their record highs, although it could take quite a set of positive earnings reports and a dovish FOMC meeting for them to simply extend those gains
• The Fed’s preferred CPI – CPE inflation – slowed to 2.9% y/y, below the 3.0% expected. Although rising shelter and healthcare costs lifted consumer prices in December by 0.2%. Whilst the trend in inflation seems to be on the right path, it remains questionable as to whether they are softening fast enough to justify multiple rate cuts.
• Fed fund futures implied a 97.9% chance the Fed will hold rates this week, a 51.9% of another pause in March, a 50.8% chance of a cut in May and a 50.2% chance of a cut in June. I suspect 2 cuts this year is more realistic than the five cuts markets were pricing in les than two weeks ago.
• Crude oil prices rose for a third day on Friday and closed above the 200-day average and EMA for a second day, after surpassing my $77 target.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• No major economic news is scheduled for today’s Asian session
• 02:30 – Dallas Fed manufacturing index and PCE inflation

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rallied for a fifth day into Thursday’s close, ahead of the long weekend due to Australia day on Friday
• Forward testing around Australia day shows an average return of 0.1% o T+1 (the day after Australia day) and a media return of 0.2%. The win rate is 58.1%.
• However, with little economic data and a 5-day rally with prices closing just beneath the 223 high, I suspect a low-ranged day even if the odds slightly favour a bullish close.

USD/JPY technical analysis (daily chart):​

Looking across the FX major pairs, USD/JPY appears to have the best odds of a breakout sooner than later, given its strong rally from the December. Prices have been consolidating for the A 3-day bullish reversal pattern has formed (morning star) to imply an upside breakout could be pending, and the 10-day EMA has provided support throughout the consolidation. Perhaps we’ll need to wait for the conclusion of the FOMC meeting for any such bullish breakout which would assume the meeting to be more hawkish than expected. Therefore, bulls may want to seek dips whilst prices remain above 146.68 and target the HVN (high-volume node) at 149.53, just below the 150 handle.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

Gold futures hint at bullish reversal, ASX futures rise for eighth day. Jan 30th 2024​

A double bottom pattern has formed on gold futures above $2000 to hint at a bullish reversal. We also note that the ASX 200 futures market rallied for an eight consecutive day, but does it have enough fuel in the tank to break above its YTD high?

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• The US treasury reduced their borrowing estimate for a second quarter which helped boost sentiment late in the US session
• A rise in bond demand and fall in treasury yields helped the S&P 500 and Dow Jones close to a new record high, the Nasdaq 100 reached a record high on a closing basis but trades -0.36% beneath Wednesday’s intraday record high
• US defence secretary Lloyd Austin vowed that the US will take “all necessary actions” following the death of three US troops and the injury of 34 by Iran-backed militants.
• Gold saw some slight safe-haven demand following the weekend reports of US troops being attacked near the Syrian border. Whilst the buying was not to any degree that we could call it a strong rally, it seems to have found support around its 50-day EMA.
• The New Zealand dollar was the strongest forex major on Monday after the RBNZ’s chief economists hinted at ‘higher for longer’ rates by saying there “we have a long way to go” regarding taming inflation.
• Both NZD/USD and AUD/USD formed bullish outside days and rallied from their 200-day averages, with the US dollar being the second weakest currency behind EUR/USD.
• This development adds a fly into the ointment for a AUD/USD short, as the daily close is just beneath the highs of the daily wicks which hinted at a topping pattern building and a potential bearish swing trade
• USD/JPY retraced back to its 10-day EMA and formed a bearish engulfing day. If it can hold above last week’s low, the bias remains for a bullish move towards 149.57 – 150.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 09:00 – Australian
• 10:30 – Japan’s unemployment rate, jobs/applications ratio
• 19:00 – Spanish inflation
• 20:00 – ECB Lan speaks, German GDP
• 20:20 – UK mortgage approvals, BoE consumer credit, M4 money supply, BoE consumer credit
• 21:00 – Eurozone GDP, economic sentiment indicator
• 00:00 – IMF/World Economic Outlook
• 02:00 – US JOLTS job openings, job quits

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 cash index rose for a sixth consecutive day – a bullish sequence not seen since mid December
• SPI 200 futures rose for an eight consecutive day, a bullish sequence not achieved since November 2020
• The ASX 200 cash market is expected to open higher today with the late-rally in SPI futures which tracked Wall Street higher
• The question for traders this week is whether the ASX can break and close above its January high, taking into account its extended run of gains

Gold futures technical analysis (daily chart):​

The general direction of gold spot and futures prices track one another very closely, but I like to track futures because they include real volume data. And whilst the prices vary between spot and futures, they can be used in tandem to monitor potential support or resistance levels.

In this case, the front-month futures contract has formed a double bottom just above $2000, to show demand around that psychological round number.

The daily close price also held above the 100-day EMA since its false break beneath it last week, so I suspect a bottom may have already formed. Moreover, a cursory glance at the cyclicity of gold prices also suggests upside momentum could be building.

With geopolitical tensions rising, demand for gold could also begin to pick up. Although a key risk for gold bugs if the FOMC meeting, which runs the risk of not being as dovish as current market pricing suggests. Regardless, I like the look of gold for a near-term bullish opportunity whilst futures hold above $2000. Bulls could consider dips towards $2004 or the 100-day EMA, with a move to $2040 or $2053 in mind (high-volume nodes from the prior decline).

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD, ASX 200 caught in the crossfire of AU CPI and FOMC: Asian Open Jan 31st 2024​

Today’s Australian CPI report could be the difference between markets bringing forward expectations of an RBA cut or repricing a hike. And with an FOMC meeting looming, AUD/USD and the ASX 200 could be facing a bout of volatility.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• The IMF (International Monetary Fund) increased their growth outlook forecast for the US and China – the two largest economies – and noted that inflation was cooling faster than anticipated
• US consumer confidence rose for a third month according to the Consumer Board, and reached a 2-year high on expectations of lower inflation expectations. Job openings were also higher according to the JOLTS report.
• A combination of profit taking ahead of the FOMC meeting and mixed earnings saw a mixed response on Wall Street indices.
• The Dow Jones extended its rally to a fresh all-time high, although the S&P 500 closed flat with an abnormally low-range day after printing an intraday record high, and the Nasdaq 100 produced a small bearish inside day
• Currency markets were confined to ranges with a general lack of direction looking at the doji’s across the FX majors. EUR/USD held above its 200-day EMA, USD/CAD edged higher and AUD/USD remained confined within its potential bear flag
• Gold failed to hold onto to its earlier safe-haven gains on renewed hopes of a truce between Hamas and Israel
• Crude oil closed back above its 200-day EMA following Monday’s bearish engulfing candle, to suggest we’re in another choppy consolidation. The bias remains for another leg higher.
• Australian retail trade was down -2.6% in December, to once again show that the majority tend to spend ahead of Xmas at the Black Friday sales and cut back at the end of the year. It’s a volatile figure at the best of times, but particularly at this time of the year. But another month of two of such figures will surely bring forward bets of a rate cut.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 10:50 – BOJ summary of opinions, Japan’s industrial production, retail sales
• 11:00 – New Zealand business confidence (ANZ)
• 11:30 – Australian quarterly and monthly CPI reports, housing credit
• 12:30 – China’s PMIs (NBS)
• 16:00 – Japan’s construction orders, household orders, housing starts
• 18:00 – German retail sales, import/export price indices
• 18:45 – French CPI
• 19:55 – German unemployment
• 20:00 – German state CPIs
• 00:15 – US ADP employment change
• 00:30 – US employment cost index

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 cash index rose for a seventh day came within a couple of points of its record high
• 7 of its 11 sectors advanced, led by info tech, real estate and healthcare
• If today’s Q4 inflation print comes in soft enough today, it could be the catalyst that breaks it to a new record high
• But if the Q3 report was anything to go by, traders should also be on guard for a hotter inflation report than expected – which could weigh on the ASX 200 at levels it has generally struggled to conquer
• A bearish RSI divergence is forming on the daily chart, and a shooting star candle formed on the ASX cash market
• The chart below shows a 2-bar reversal below resistance alongside a bearish divergence with RSI
• The bias is for a pullback from current levels which cold bring 7500 into focus near the 10-day EMA.

AUD/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

The Australian dollar continues to trade within a potential bear flag pattern, which projects an approximate target around 0.64. A soft inflation report could send AUD/USD lower, but its downside may be limited ahead of the FOMC meeting. The idea scenario for bears is a soft AU inflation report and relatively hawkish FOMC meeting.

Take note of the probable support zone around 0.6500 – 0.6520 which could take the string out of any bearish move, at least temporarily.

Should AU inflation come in hotter than expected, an upside break an invalidation of the bear flag seems likely. At which point I would seek evidence of a swing high around the Q3 open or 0.6700, near the volume cluster.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

US dollar rallies, S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq tumble post FOMC Feb 1st 2024​

The Fed held rates and ruled out a March cut, which saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst day since September, the Nasdaq 100 falling around -1.8% and the Dow Jones form a bearish outside day at its record high. USD/JPY still looks good for a run to 150 to my technical eyes.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

The Fed held their policy unchanged as widely expected, and pushed against an imminent hike at subsequent meetings. Whilst money markets had scaled back bets of aggressive tightening this year over the past couple of weeks, they were still trying to price in a March cut. But that is now dead in the water following comments from Jerome Powell. Regular readers will know that this has been my view, and that market pricing was too aggressively priced for multiple cuts given the strength of the US economy.



Wall Street indices took this ‘revelation’ quite hard, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst day since September, the Nasdaq 100 falling around -1.8% and the Down Jones forming a bearish outside day at its record high. Gold handed back all of its earlier gains to close the day with an inverted hammer candle.



AUD/USD fell to a 7-day low to confirm the bear-flag breakout I ‘flagged’ a couple of times this week. If we see a decent ISM and NFP report this week and the RBA tip their hat to lower inflation at Tuesday's meeting, a break below 65c seems plausible.



As my colleague David Scutt pointed out, there is now a growing case that the RBA could cut rates ahead of the Fed given Australia’s soft inflation report yesterday. Personally, I am of the view that the RBA may at least hold out until the Fed begin hinting at an imminent cut, given their tendency to simply follow the Fed.

Summary of the Fed statement​

• Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace
• Job growth has moderated but remains solid and unemployment remains low
• Inflation has eased but remains elevated
• Not appropriate to cut rates until the Fed gains greater confidence that “inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”
• QT to continue

Comments from Jerome Powell’s press conference

• We’re not looking for inflation to tap 2% once; we’re looking for it to settle out at 2%
• We’re not looking for inflation to anchor below 2%
• I don’t think it is likely we will have a rate cut in March
• We will be reacting to data
• There are risks that would make us go slower or faster on rate cuts

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 09:00 – Australian building approvals, import/export price index, quarterly business confidence (NAB)
• 11:30 – Japan’s manufacturing PMI (Jibun Bank)
• 12:45 – China’s manufacturing PMI (Caixin)
• 16:30 – Australian commodity prices
• 20:30 – UK manufacturing PMI
• 21:00 – Eurozone CPI
• 23:00 – BOE interest rate decision, meeting minutes, MPC votes to cut/hike
• 23:00 – US Challenger job cuts
• 02:00 – ISM manufacturing PMI

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rose for an eight day and hit a record high, thanks to soft CPI figures for Australia on Wednesday
• SPI 200 futures rallied for a ninth day and also hit a new all-time high, but it appears to have sobered up and formed a 2-day bearish reversal pattern with a bearish RSI divergence
• The ASX 200 cash index is expected to gap sharply lower given the weak lead from Wall Street
• A move down to 7500 now seems plausible as we head towards next week’s RBA meeting, but it might find some support if the RBA deliver a relatively dovish hold

USD/JPY technical analysis (chart):​

The daily chart shows that USD/JPY tried but failed to break the 146 handle, and the lower daily wick respected the 50/100-day EMAs before the pair recouped ~half of the day’s earlier losses. I suspect an important swing low has formed and that momentum could now try to turn higher.

The bias remains for a move up towards the 149.50 – 150 resistance zone, and bulls could seek entries around current levels or dips towards support levels. The bias remains bullish whilst prices remain above the 146 handle.

View the full economic calendar


-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

EUR/USD holds key support ahead of NFP, US dollar on the ropes. Feb 2nd 2024​

The US dollar was lower across the board after traders digested the latest Fed meeting and are now focusing on four cuts this year, beginning in May. EUR/USD is just one of several pairs to form engulfing days against the US dollar.


By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• The US dollar was lower across the board after traders digested the latest Fed meeting and are now focusing on four cuts this year, beginning in May. EUR/USD is just one of several pairs to rise from key support levels.
• AUD/USD printed an elongated bullish pinbar following a false break of the Jan 17 low. As the rally was driven by a weaker US dollar, I remain sceptical of any runaway gains – especially if we’re treated to a soft set of producer prices today
• Wall Street rebounded on Thursday ahead of key earnings reports expected after the close
• Positive earnings reports from META, Amazon and Apple helped Nasdaq futures rally over 1% after the close
• Gold rose for a fourth day and reached a 19-day high before pulling back but still closing above $2050
• Crude oil futures fell for a second day with the front-month contract seeing its largest daily volume since last November and closed below $74

The BOE tread carefully over timing of first cut​

This Bank of England struck a similar tone to the Fed where central banks are treading very carefully as not to over promise and under-deliver the rate cuts markets so desperately want. The BOE held their interest rate at 5.25% as expected, although one MPC member voted to cut for the first time since January 2020 and one less voted to hike. Six voted to hold, two to hike and one to cut.



Whilst this is a subtle but important shift towards their first cut, the BOE were careful not to overpromise on such action, with Governor Bailey saying the current level of rates is appropriate and it is not yet the time to lower them. He also warned not to expect further big falls in energy prices and that the continuation of trade disruptions are an upside risk to inflation. And that it is not as simple as saying “inflation returns to target and spring and job done”.







GBP/USD was the second strongest FX major of the session and formed a bullish outside day after finding support at its 50-day EMA. Whilst prices remain on the choppy side, it looks as though it may at least want to have another crack at 1.28.



The USD dollar was the weakest FX major a day after the FOMC meeting, where traders are now focusing on a May cut despite the Fed pushing back on rates for march. Fed fund futures imply a 60% chance of a 25bp cut in May, with June, July and September all showing >50% chance of another 25bp for a total of four.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 11:30 – Australian home loans, producer prices
• 23:15 – BOE chief economist Pill speaks
• 00:30 – US nonfarm payrolls
• 02:00 – Michigan consumer sentiment

EUR/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

A prominent bullish engulfing candle formed on the spot EUR/USD daily chart around the 1.08 handle, which also landed on a volume cluster from the previous rally. The fact that EUR/USD futures also rallied from its 200-day EMA adds another layer of conviction that the euro may have just printed a key swing low.

A falling wedge has also formed on the daily chart, which projects a target back at the base of the wedge just above 1.11. Whilst I remain sceptical that the US dollar will simply collapse from current levels, I do see the potential for further gains on EUR/USD should we be treated to a softer set of nonfarm payroll figures and the ECB continue to push back on rate cuts in H1.

Bulls could seek dips within Thursday’s range and simply target the 1.09 and 1.10 handles. We can reconsider its potential to continue higher as the story evolves.

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

USD/JPY bulls eye 152, AUD/USD bears eye 64c: Asian Open Feb 5th 2024​

A surprisingly strong NFP report on Friday saw the US dollar rally against all FX major, which brings 152 in focus for USD/JPY bulls and 64c for AUD/USD bears.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

• US job growth accelerated by 353k in January and wages increased at their fastest pace in nearly two years, according to the January nonfarm payrolls report
• This makes the case for multiple Fed cuts this year very difficult to get behind, and that was visible on the US dollar which exploded higher following the highly inflationary data set
• Wall Street took the good news as good news, despite the potential of ‘higher for longer’ rates which saw the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all close at record highs
• The US dollar was the strongest forex major on Friday, NZD and JPY were the weakest
• A prominent bearish outside day formed on AUD/USD after its latest failed attempt to break above the 200-day EMA
• AUD/USD found support above 75c but it looks increasingly likely it will break beneath the key support level and head for the bear-flag target around 74c
• ECB’s AI model has predicted that inflation for the euro zone could fall faster than the EC currently expects
• ECB member Nagel expects a soft landing for the economy and that he thinks it is too early to cut interest rates
• Reports of a ceasefire in Gaza saw oil prices fall over 2% and retest $72 on Friday, which tallies up its third day of losses in a row and its fourth down day of the week

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 09:00 – Australian trade balance
• 11:30 – Japan’s services PMI (final)
• 12:45 – China’s services PMI (Caixin)
• 20:00 – Euro zone services and composite PMIs (final)
• 20:30 – UK services and composite PMIs (final)

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 closed at a record high on Friday and just shy of 7700
• It also formed a bullish engulfing candle, although SPI 200 futures retraced ~35% of Thursday’s range which points toa lower open for the cash ASX 200 market today
• 10 of the 11 ASX 200 sectors advanced on Friday, only utilities closed lower
• 87% of ASX 200 stocks advanced, 10.5% declined and 2/5% were unchanged

USD/JPY technical analysis (4-hour chart):​

It took a while longer than anticipate, but momentum for USD/JPY finally exploded higher on Friday following the strong US employment report. A double bottom formed around 146, and it is around 2/3rds of the way to the 150 target. This makes the reward to risk ratio for bulls a little tricky but not impossible. From here, any retracement within Friday’s range would be appreciated to increase the potential reward to risk ratio for bulls, although it is hard to envisage a strong retracement without some unexpected news arriving. Still, eve a period of consolidation could help with a case for a tighter stop. But with the Fed unlikely to cut soon and a BOJ remaining in utra0dovish mode, an eventual break above 15 cannot be ruled out.

AUD/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

Momentum finally turned lower on AUD/USD, to keep the bear-flag target to 74c alive and well. The daily high on Friday saw a false break above the 200-day EMA before bears took control. It found support around 75c which at the very least suggests a period of consolidation or a retracement could be due. But like USD/JPY, I’m not expecting a large retracement ahead of its move towards target.

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

USD extends its lead on hot ISM report, RBA up next for AUD, ASX traders. Feb 6th 2024​

An inflationary ISM report saw bets of multiple Fed cuts reduced to send the US dollar index to an 11-week high. If the RBA come out with a dovish meeting today, AUD/USD could be headed for 64c.

By : Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

Market Summary:​

Any concerns that the ISM services PMI could move closer to (or within) contraction were promptly swept aside with Monday's report, which saw the headline PMI expand at its fastest pace in four months. S&P Global’s services PMI for the US was also above expectations.

Most importantly, ISM employment, new orders and prices paid expanded - and these were the internal indices of concern in from the prior report.

Specifically, prices paid (a proxy for inflation) expanded at its fastest pace in 11 months and the m/m read increased at its highest rate since February 2021.

Fed fund futures still imply a cut in May with a 52.6% probability (good luck with that...) but from there on out, any expectations of a cut are all <50%.

• The USD remained dominant following the better-than-expected ISM services report and of course Friday's bumper NFP, sending the US dollar index to an 11-week high.
• USD/JPY briefly traded at a 10-week high, although the day’s range was less than a third of Friday’s
• AUD/USD closed below 65c for the first time in 11 weeks ahead of today’s RBA meeting, where the a dovish statement or press conference could send it lower
• US yields were also higher across the curve whilst bets of multiple Fed cuts this year diminished.
• Wall Street indices were lower but seemed to take it all within stride, with Monday’s small daily ranges remaining within Friday’s range, just beneath their all-time highs.
• Gold fell for a second day ad trades at $2024, but at this stages I suspect it will hold above $2000
• Crude oil looks to have found some stability around $72 with a small-range doji on the daily timeframe. Given its deep retracement over the past week, a minor bounce may be in order.
• The Bank of Canada’s quarterly survey of market participants showed expectations of four BOC rate cuts in 2024 to begin in April.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 09:00 – Australian
• 11:00 – Fed Harker speaks
• 11:30 – Australian retail sales (final)
• 14:30 – RBA interest rate decision, statement
• 15:30 – RBA press conference

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 cash index faltered at 7700 and handed back most of Friday’s gains
• 10 of its 11 sectors declined, led by mater4ials and utilities
• 158 stocks declined (79%), 37 advanced (18.5%), 5 were unchanged (2.5%)
• Short volume of ASX rose to a 5-day high on Friday, ahead of Monday’s selloff (we can presume short sales would have risen considerably yesterday)
• The daily direction for the ASX 200 has alternated each of the past four days, but with a soft lead from Wall Street and lower SPI 200 futures, a second consecutive down day could be on the cards (unless the RBA’s meeting is more hawkwish than expected)

AUD/USD technical analysis (1-hour chart):​

The strength of the US dollar saw AUD/USD closed beneath 65c, although the 1-hour chart shows it found support at the weekly S1 pivot point and a bullish RSI divergence has formed. For us to expect AUD/USD to perform a strong rally today likely requires the RBA to keep the threat of further hikes in the table. Seeing as I see this as an unlikely scenario, I would prefer to fade into any bounce on the assumption it won’t last. Besides, we’ve seen a bear flag breakout on the daily chart which projects a target around 64c. From here, nears could look to fade into moves towards 0.6500 and initially target the Weekly S2 pivot / Q4 open, ahead of the 64c bear-flag target.

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.