Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

03 DECEMBER 2012: EURO AND ASIA RISE ON CHINESE MANUFACTURING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Euro/USD rose to 1.3048 and Asian stocks jumped to a nine-month high on further signs of a stabilizing Chinese economy boosted investor’s risk appetite. China’s vast manufacturing sector quickened in November for the first time in 13 months. HSBC bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Survey, PMI, rose to 50,5. A further evidence that the Chinese economy is picking up after quarters of slowing growth. China’s official PMI was even higher at 50,6. An official PMI for the non-manufacturing sector reached 55,6 led by construction services.

The upbeat Chinese manufacturing data helped the Euro reach a six-week high against the dollar. The Euro was also strengthened by Angela Merkel’s careful remarks that Germany, in a medium, longer term perspective, might consider to write off Greek’s debt if the country succeeds in getting its house in order.

The rhetoric on the “fiscal cliff” increased during the weekend when Democrats and Republicans went on the air to trade accusations on whom are mostly to blame for the budget stalemate. This also helped the euro. In spite that there still seem to be a huge distance to cross before any budget deal sight is in sight, markets nevertheless seem to have discounted a compromise. All asset classes posted gains in November with higher appetite for securities. Security markets except the Shanghai composite rose.

The Japanese Nikkei continues to rise on a lower yen and expectations for monetary easing after the parliamentarian elections in mid-December. The dollar steadied at 82,40 yen not far from the 82,84 yen touched on November 22. Speculators have over the last weeks boosted a short yen position which was at its highest since May 2007.

US, NYMEX crude and Brent futures are inching up at 89,16 and 111,57 respectively. Copper gained 0,3 percent to USD 8018 a metric ton. Gold is slightly up to 1719 on a weaker dollar. The DXY dollar index against a basket of major currencies are down 0,2 percent.

Copyright: United World Capital
 
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS

3 December 2012: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments UWCFX)

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04 DECEMBER 2012: WALL STREET FALLS ON WEAK DATA

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Manufacturing activity in the United States surprisingly contracted in November, dropping to its lowest level in three years. The fiscal cliff remains, however, investors’ primary focus. The political haggling over how to deal with large automatic spending cuts and tax hikes scheduled to kick in at the beginning of the new year, threatens to threw the US economy into new recession. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell back after three straight winning days for the US indexes. The S&P index which composes an average of US stocks, are in spite of yesterday’s weakness still up 12, 1 percent in 2012, making stocks one of the assets classes winners.

Asian bourses and the Japanese Nikkei edged down in early Tuesday trading when the weak US data triggered profit-taking on exporters. The US economy is key to the fortunes of Japanese exporters which rely heavily on consumption in the world biggest economy. Asian markets got a boost over the weekend when the Chinese economy demonstrated healthy manufacturing data and strong signals for a rebound. Yesterday’s gains were eaten by a new cold shower from the US. The Japanese yen which recently has fallen against the USD, fluctuated heavily yesterday. After USD/JPY had traded at its lowest levels in weeks, JPY recovered strongly on the weak US manufacturing data. It is now trading at 82,10.

The Euro/USD is still strong. It rose to 1.3076 during yesterday’s trading, the highest level seen since October 22. The Euro dropped against yen after rising to a seven-month high on 107,67 on Monday. A Greek bond buyback scheme at 65 – 70 % reduction of nominal value has attracted interest and also strengthened the common currency. There are small changes in other currency pairs. Australian dollar is stabile against yen and USD, and the Scandinavian currencies are demonstrating strength both against USD and Euro. EURO/USD is trading at 1.3054 at present.

Oil prices are down. Brent crude has tipped down a dollar to 110,54. Precious metals are also trading lower. After recovering from end of last week’s steep fall from 1750-level to 1707, gold traded at 1721 yesterday. This morning gold has dropped down to 1703, a fall of 15 dollar an ounce.

Copyright: United World Capital
 
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS

4 December 2012 : Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments UWCFX)

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05 DECEMBER 2012: OBAMA STAYS FIRM ON TAXES FOR RICH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


President Barack Obama held his ground on the “fiscal cliff” Tuesday. In an interview with Bloomberg Television Obama stressed that no budget compromise was possible without the wealthiest Americans paying their fair share of common expenses. With less than a month left to confront budget cuts and tax increases that will take effect from January 1st unless Congress acts, Republicans seem increasingly in disarray over how far to go to compromise with Obama’s demands. In the interview Obama took a conciliatory tone, but excluded any further tax burdens on an embattled middle class.

The insecurity over whether total budget cuts and tax hikes amounting to USD 300 billion would be implemented in some few weeks’ time, has severely affected markets. Wall Street finished slightly lower in a quiet session with thin trading volumes. Hewlett Packard recovering from last week’s onslaught when its share prices dropped 15 % in one day, was together with Intel who announced a buy-back of own shares, the winners.

Asian shares rose Wednesday led by surging Chinese equities. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were up 0,6 percent. Shanghai shares surged 3 percent to reclaim the 2000 point level. Hong Kong shares jumped 1,3 percent. Nikkei also inched up on a statement from Bank of Japan confirming willingness for more aggressive monetary easing. USD/JPY which during yesterday’s trading strengthened substantially and reached 81,75, fell back in morning trade to 82,25 supporting exporters.

Better than expected terms for Greek bonds buy-back plan raised optimism that Athens will secure much needed emergency aid to avert a default. The news took the euro/USD above 1.32 levels for the first time in months. The Euro was also helped by Obama’s statements that weakened the dollar and increased risk sentiments. Gold saw a new set-back and fell to 1685. It has recovered to 1701 in morning trade. Oil prices have as well recovered from yesterday’s lows. Brent crude is up 0,2 % trading above USD 110 a barrel.

Copyright: United World Capital
 
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS

5 December 2012: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments UWCFX)

[video=youtube;Gd9fYPHt30g][/video]
 
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07 DECEMBER 2012: EURO FALLS ON BLEAK OUTLOOK

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


The European Central Bank, ECB’s, bleak outlook for the euro zone presented at a press conference yesterday, created turbulence in the currencies markets. The euro/USD fell to its lowest level in one week at 1.2969, down 150 basis points from its high on Wednesday. The fall in the Euro has worsened by the political development in Italy where Silvio Berlusconi’s Freedom Party withdrew its support for the technocrat government of Prime Minister Mario Monti. This immediately put pressure also on Italian bonds.

The main trigger for the sharply negative euro reaction was the mention of a “wide discussion over rate cuts. ECB President Mario Draghi said policymakers had considered cutting its main 0,75 % policy rate before deciding to leave it on hold. Draghi added that the ECB also “operationally was ready for negative rates”. This caused the euro to tumble and led biggest one-day loss in the single currency in one month.

The Euro fell steeply also against yen and other currencies. USD/JPY is urging up at 82,48. The slid in the Euro helped push the dollar index, DXY, up to 80,236 rebounding from a six week low of 79,58. Investors’ eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls report to be published later today. A sharp slowdown in employment growth IS expected due to the disruptions caused by super storm Sandy.

Asian shares touched fresh 16-months on Friday following modest gains in global equities as investors watched progress in US budget talks. Recent indicators suggesting stabilized growth in China has helped improve sentiments in Asia. The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares rose 0,6 percent and has gained 17 percent during 2012. Hong Kong shares reached a 16-month high. In the US a rebound in Apple helped boost technology shares on quiet exchanges.

Oil prices fell heavily yesterday. Brent crude tipped below USD 107 a barrel, but has recovered somewhat. Gold is again trading above USD 1700 an ounce.

Copyright: United World Capital
 
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS

7 December 2012: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments UWCFX)

[video=youtube;lE8V_XaX6D4][/video]
 
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10 DECEMBER 2012: ASIAN SHARES FIRM ON US OPTIMISM

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments


Asian stocks stayed firm at its 16-month high Monday morning as better growth outlook for US and China gave raise to modest optimism. This came after US consumer confidence plunged in early December as fear over imminent tax raises and spending cuts, the fiscal cliff, outweighed the better than expected raise in non-farm payrolls job data. Unemployment fall from 7,9 to 7,7 % in November adding 146 000 new jobs suggests a modest momentum in US economy. The drop in unemployment figures is, however, mainly due to 350 000 people leaving the labor market.

The Asia Pacific share index rose 0,3 percent. The index was up 1 percent last week for its third successive weekly gain. Regional Asian market was Sunday further boosted when China reported a pick-up in factory output and retail sales after stagnating for seven quarters. Chinese exports and imports were, however, delivering below forecast presenting a mixed picture.

The Euro/USD continues to slide. Euro reached a two week low of 1.2876 on Friday after the German central back warned that Germany, the biggest economy inside the euro zone, might soon enter into recession. The Euro is at present trading at 1.2893. The pro Euro Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, announced during the weekend that his government will withdraw. That will put the Euro under increased pressure. The development in ten-year Italian bonds which are seen as a main confidence barometer for investors shall be closely followed today.

The American dollar is up 0,3 percent against a basket of major currencies. Commodity markets led by copper are generally firmer on expectation of stronger Chinese industrial demand. Oil prices are stabilizing after falling steeply last week. Brent crude trades at USD 107,40 a barrel. Gold (1706) and silver (33,14) are up from Friday.

Copyright: United World Capital
 
VIDEO MARKET REVIEWS

10 December 2012: Daily Market Reviews from Mr. Arne Treholt (Vice-President of Business Development and Investments UWCFX)

[video=youtube;4sTaSWyPniw][/video]
 
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