Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

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After the vertical climb in recent weeks, the European markets, entered a phase of heightened sensitivity to adverse events or news. Some negative factors may bring some weakness in the coming days:
- The apathy in the provision of credit may evidence that the European economy can not engage in a credible and sustainable recovery, even with the multiple aid of ECB. To these fears add up the steep losses on value suffered by Greek banks on Friday.
- Increase of Geo-Political tensions in Ukraine. On Friday it was reported that heavy fighting occurred in the east of the country and that a Russian armored column had entered the Ukraine.

The American markets closed on Friday without major swings. The employment report was the main event of the day and had contained reaction from the equity markets, fitting the expectations of investors. In October, the US economy generated 212,000 jobs, a little less than 235 000 mentioned by economists.

In October, China’s exports grew 11.60%, beating forecasts of 10.60%. Imports registered an increase of 4.60%, slightly below the 5% target. These data are of some importance, to the extent that exports have been one of the strengths of the Chinese economy in 2014 and have enabled China to obtain successive surpluses in the trade balance.

 

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European markets trade without major fluctuations. The earning season continues today with the publication of the quarterly accounts of several Italian banks. The oil drop suggests to many investors a sign of the global economic slowdown, however, it is noted that the downward movement of crude oil is also explained by an oversupply. The fall in the Oil price is a threat that goes beyond the rational perception, to the extent that the situation in many oil producing countries begins to deteriorate. Among these producers, the biggest threat comes from Russia. Germany is the country with the largest trade ties with Russia and the European markets are likely to accuse some vulnerability in the coming days.

US markets closed with modest gains but enough for the Dow Jones and S&P to reach new highs. US stocks continues to be boosted by a favorable moment characterized by low interest rates, positive corporate earnings, auspicious economic data and abundant liquidity. This period of inertial rise will require new catalysts to extend the current rally. Moreover, any adverse event or factor may have a very significant impact on the underlying trend.

Today is the Veterans Day. The stock market is open, unlike the bond market and the liquidity on Wall Street should be less than usual.

Asian markets closed without major fluctuations. The only exception was the Nikkei which reached the maximum of seven years after the Bank of Japan started buying assets. Yesterday, after the closing of the Japanese market, the Bank of Japan acquired the equivalent of 265 M € of ETFs listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

 

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thanks !!

 

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European markets trade with losses. One of the main news of the day is the penalty imposed against several banks by supervisors in England and the USA. In England, the supervisor has stipulated Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS to pay a fine of 1100 M.GBP due to irregularities in the forex market. For its part, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported that these banks will have to pay a fine of 1,400 M.USD by irregularities of the same nature. Although the conviction was expected, the fines are much higher than in comparable occasions.

The International Energy Agency will publish its report on the outlook for the end of 2014. Investors will monitor essentially the part on US production of oil and gas. The US became the world’s 3rd largest producer (accounting for about 10% of global production) due to the shale revolution, the horizontal extraction of gas and oil from shale surfaces.

Today, the Bank of England will hold a press conference to coincide with the publication of a bulletin on inflation. The economic growth of recent years has caused some inflationary outbreaks and some speculative levels that some areas of the housing market (especially in London) have reached. Among the various Central Banks there is a high probability that this can be the first to reverse the monetary policy in recent years.

The US markets closed with modest gains, with the Dow Jones and the S&P at new highs. Liquidity has been reduced due to the Veterans Day celebration, with many market players staying aside.

 

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European markets opened slightly higher, recovering some of yesterday’s losses. The day was initially marked by the publication of data relating to some European countries. Today, before the opening, the change in inflation in Germany was published. In October stood at -0.30% compared to September. In France, inflation remained unchanged. By 9:00 am, the ECB reported its monthly newsletter.

Data on the Chinese economy, which were not famous, will condition the feeling of European investors.

The issue of Ukraine and the economic and financial situation in Russia are two interlocking themes that came to the fore again in recent days. Yesterday, several sources of information reported that Russian military columns had entered the eastern Ukraine, worsening the situation for the economies of both countries.

US markets are still going through a consolidation phase. In fact, in the last 5 sessions, the volatility of stock market indices have been much lower than in previous weeks. After a strong rise is normal a correction in the markets (as in the case of European indices) or at least fluctuate within a relatively narrow range consolidation (as have done the American Stocks). The fall of oil conditioned, once again, its sector while the fines imposed on 5 international banks have shaken investor’s sentiment regarding this sector.

 

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Similarly to yesterday’s behavior, European markets opened slightly higher than the previous close. The session will be dominated by important economic data: The GDP of the Eurozone, and the inflation relative to October. The German GDP grew only 0,10%, in line with the estimate for the 3rd quarter. France grew 0,30% in the same period, exceeding economists’ forecasts. Regarding Eurozone´s inflation, economists estimate has increased to 0,40% (compared with 0,30% recorded in September). The reaction of investors will depend on the monetary stimulus measures that may be adopted by the ECB. If economic growth is lower than expected and / or inflation falls below the estimated this will reinforce the possibility of the ECB introduce a bond buying program.

US markets continue to consolidate. The Stock Market have been valued through reports of specific companies and sectors. At the macroeconomic level, one of the major uncertainties in the current economic climate is on consumption at a time when the US economy begins to accelerate. Retail sales are one of the best barometers of this variable, as it represents about 30% of private consumption. The fall in the price of fuel (fruit of the oil drop) has a negative accounting impact on retail sales, to the extent that the value of the sale of gasoline and related products is lower. However, lower expenditures on gasoline allow Americans to buy other goods. Thus, the most relevant of today will be the indicator for retail sales excluding cars (a very volatile component) and fuels.

 

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European markets declined early in the session, reflecting the unexpected news out of Japan whose GDP fell 1,60% in the 3rd quarter. The European indices recovered from early losses and ended higher.

Mario Draghi presented to European legislators a list of political resolutions for 2015, and mentioned that an expanded purchase program to stimulate the economy could include government bonds. The President of the European Central Bank used his testimony from the last quarter of 2014 calling on the European Parliament to political action that complements monetary policy, insisting that his institution alone can not fix the economy of the region.

In Brussels, the foreign ministers gathered to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the position of the European Union on Russia. During the G20 meeting this weekend week, the President of Russia abandoned this event, showing the gap between this country and the West.

 

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At the macroeconomic level, investors were surprised today with excellent numbers forthe ZEW index. This indicator measures the sentiment of investors and is prepared through a survey of 350 financial agents. At a time when the German economy is almost stagnant, the feeling of financial agents is of greater importance.

The SP500 has risen to new highs, with the rally in the health sector and the small-cap companies recovering from yesterday decline. Consumers and Investors Sentiment is quite positive at the moment.

 

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European markets traded in a tight consolidation. The last two days have shown an improvement in investor sentiment, motivated by the reinforcement of ECB’s intentions, by its President Mario Draghi.

The last few weeks were marked by the strong underperformance of European banks. This has been substantiated by the increasing signs of contraction in the eurozone economy, the legal costs and fines of several banks that have shaken investor sentiment and the fact that the ECB has not yet achieved the expectations of the market regarding the implementation of a program purchase sovereign debt.

US markets fell from historic highs with the release of the Fed minutes, which revealed that some members said the central bank should remain alert to the possibility of prices in the US economy are not growing fast enough.

The Housing Market Index (Nov) rose in November to 58.0, thus reaching the maximum of the last nine years.

Asian markets closed with contained losses. In Japan, held a meeting of the Central Bank and a distinguished nuance of today’s meeting last month, since the number of members of the Bank who supported the expansion of monetary stimulus program increased from 5 to 8, a total of 9 members.

 

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The first hours of trading the European Stock Markets were marked by the publication of a relevant economic indicator in China, the PMI index for the manufacturing industry, prepared by HSBC economists. According to HSBC economists the manufacturing activity in this country fell to 50.0, the lowest level in six months. This reading was below the 50.4 recorded in October and 50.3 estimated by economists.

The first hour of trading did reflect investors’ concerns and this was compounded by the publication of the PMI index for the manufacturing industry in Germany and in the Eurozone, as the values were below the estimate. After the opening of US market, the situation was reversed with the publication of US economic data with values above expectations.

The market will be impacted today by Loretta j. Mester’s speach from Fed, and tomorrow at the opening bell of the European markets by the speech of Mario Dragui.

In recent days, European markets had an overperformance comparing to the Americans. There are several reasons for this behavior, of which to highlight the words of Mario Draghi at the European Parliament and a recent study by JP Morgan which maintain their preference for the European Stocks, justified by the possibility of the ECB implement quantitative easing measures and the fact that European indices have better ratios (as the PER, share price divided by earnings per share of the company) more appealing than Americans. Another factor has to do with the expectation of some international investors that the difference in returns between the American and European markets may decrease by the end of the year. For example, since the beginning of the year, the SP500 appreciated by 10.84%, while the DAX fell 0.83%.