FiboGroup Market Analysis 2019


I would say that you shouldn't just be careful of the pound 's recent gains, but rather completely avoid trading the pound like plague until the Brexit issues are settled fully. The news sorrounding Brexit is not encouraging at all, especially considering that GBP is one of the major currencies


I would not advise anyone to trade GBP until after April in the least. Better still, any wise trader should stay as far away as possible from the pound, even for the whole year. "Hard - exit" words as used in Brexit news development is not encouraging at all


GBP is a very major currency, in fact it is one of the most traded currencies in forex. It's quite unfortunate for GBP traders that things are no longer milk and honey as before, but we hope that they will change for the best. Either way, I can't trade the pound at such a time as this


If I have to trade GBP this year, then I'd rather quit and resuming trading next year. It looks like anyone who will trade the pound, especially any time before May, would be preparing a recipe for trading suicide. I'm not ready for that, I don't know about you


Anyone trading Great Britain Pound (GBP) must be blind and deaf to the news . With the direction that Brexit stuff is taking, anyone who is not prepared for stress should not even consider going anywhere near GBP. Leave it alone if you want peace of mind

FIBO Group representative
The Australian dollar has come under further pressure in today’s trading session after yesterday’s selloff on the back of move by China to retaliate for the new tariffs slapped on them by the US government.
Chinese has fought back by introducing new tariffs of their own which has now brought the possibility of a full-blown trade war to the forefront again which is going to be terrible news for the Aussie dollar as any trade war is expected to hit the Chinese economy hard.
China is Australia’s biggest trading partner and with the Australian economy on the slide, it can ill afford this situation.
The National Australia Bank business conditions index released earlier today came in under expectations which also added fuel to the fire for the Australian dollar and now all eyes will be the release of Key job figures on Thursday
The strength of the jobs market has been the sole reason the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold which to some is counterproductive as they believe the Australian economy needs lower interest rates in order to revive it.
If the job numbers come in under expectations the Australian dollar is expected to tumble as rate cut in the coming months will be a near certainty.
"Given the RBA’s recent communications, downside surprises to the Australian labour market data this week will raise pricing for a rate cut as soon as June and push AUD lower” says Kim Mundy, a strategist fromCommonwealth Bank of Australia.
“The AUD can drop more than 1 US cent if the Australian labour data disappoints," she added.

FIBO Group representative
The British pound is under further pressure today against its US counterpart after another round of strong data from the US and expectations that a hard Brexit, whereby Britain leaves the EU without a deal may still be on the cards

British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that she will once again try to push her Brexit deal through the British Parliament in the week starting June 3rd and with already 3 failed attempts, the chances of the deal passing this time around are not good.

If the vote fails, Theresa May is expected to announce her resignation immediately which will throw the UK into situation of political uncertainty which is exactly what the country doesn’t need at this present time.

This prospect is weighing on the British pound as the chances for a no deal Brexit have now risen

“Another failure will almost certainly mean Theresa May is out. The big question then is who will take her place?” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group.

“Pound traders are growing increasingly nervous that Theresa May will be replaced with a hard-line Brexiteer. This means the chances of a softer Brexit are fading and dragging the pound lower.” He added.

The continuous solid flow of US data hitting the market in recent weeks has also not helped the pounds cause and the trend continued yesterday with solid reading from the real estate sector.

The ongoing trade talks between China and the US have come to a stalemate which threatens to inflict serious damage on the global economy, but investors are seemingly overlooking the situation and instead focusing on real time data hitting the market which is driving the US dollar higher

The Market looks "to have temporarily given up trying to predict the fluid situation that is US-China trade relations and concentrate on the here and now" said OANDA senior market analyst Jeffrey

"The here and now on Wall Street was strong US housing starts and sparkling results from heavyweights Walmart, Nvidia and Cisco Systems, suggesting yet again that despite the international noise, the US economy is still moving full steam ahead." He added.

FIBO Group representative
After temporarily breaking back up through the $1300 mark at the beginning of last week, gold has now racked up 5 straight days of losses as investors exit the precious metal as safe haven in favor of the US dollar which has been powering ahead on the back of trade tensions between the US and China as well as a continuous flow of data coming out of the US.

With no end in site for the worlds superpowers to agree to a trade deal, the greenback is likely to stoke investor interest at the expense of gold and it seems for the time being the $1300 level is going to be a tough nut to crack
“The safe-haven demand of the U.S. dollar is taking some of the gloss off gold’s safety,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.

“It is a tough time all around for gold with the break below $1,290 also pressuring it. In the absence of safe-haven demand I would expect to see ongoing modest pressure on gold prices.” He added.

Gold is trading today at around $1270 an ounce and is pushing down towards a critical support level of between $126050 and $1260 an ounce and if this price fails to hold, we may be in for further losses.

“Gold inability to break above $1,300 is an indication that the market is really fragile, and I think investors should expect to see lower prices in the near-term,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at City Index. “I think you have to continue to play gold to the downside as long as prices are unable to hold sustainable gains above $1,300. On the weekly chart I don’t see any reason to be bullish on gold anytime soon.” “If gold prices go below that target ($1,256) , then where the selloff ends is anyone’s guess,” he added..