dkami
Sergeant
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can't wait, let us know when your doneCan ya let us know if I got the fib right on this chart thanks VStar?
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FOREX PRO WEEKLY #2, December 19-23, 2016
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
can't wait, let us know when your doneCan ya let us know if I got the fib right on this chart thanks VStar?
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,719
Good morning,
(Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Thursday in muted trade ahead of the holidays as the U.S. dollar
slipped from 14-year highs.
Spot gold was steady at $1,131.54 an ounce by 0253 GMT. The metal, which hit a 10-1/2-month low of $1,122.35 last week on hawkish rate hike forecast from the Federal Reserve, ended flat in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,132.90 per ounce.
"The market is in holiday mood already and we have very few trading days before the new year. It is all going to be quiet as the investors will be holding very thin margins," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
The Federal Reserve, which hiked U.S. interest rates last week, signaled three more increases next year compared with its previous projection of two. Expectations of rate hikes lowers demand for the non-interest-paying bullion, which is priced in dollars.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped 0.1 percent to 102.950. It hit 103.65 on Tuesday, its highest since December 2002.
"The dollar is very strong and gold is going to be under pressure till Donald Trump takes over the U.S. presidency and the focus will shift to how his polices are unfolding," said Leung.
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, continued to fall on
Wednesday, losing 0.43 percent to hit 824.54 tonnes. Holdings are down over 12 percent since November.
"A lot of ETF buyers got in at unsatisfactory levels. Clearly Trump's win was unexpected by the market and the rise in U.S. yields put further pressure on gold," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"A break of $1,100 will see another round of big liquidations." Spot gold looks neutral in a range of $1,121-$1,137 per ounce, and an escape could indicate a direction, according to Wang Tao, Reuters analyst for commodities technicals.
So, although gold stands flat and at first glance shows nothing interesting - with closer view it is not quite so. Actually gold provides interesting combination for scalp traders. On daily chart last 5 sessions were mostly inside one to last Thu decreasing. But, gold still somehow has formed bearish grabber that suggests taking out of recent lows.
It seems logical, because gold has not quite completed 1.618 AB-CD target for approx. 1.5$. Thus, showing spike down looks reasonable here.
On 4-hour chart gold is still flirting inside the channel and not repeats not only bearish dynamic pressure patterns, but overall shape of each swing, including minor bullish grabbers. Following the harmony of current motion it seems that gold could reach 1115 area - bottom of the channel and WPS1:
On a way down price could take a shape of hourly butterfly:
If drop indeed will happen - this complete daily target and prepare background for minor upside retracement,(if it will happen at all of course...)
(Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Thursday in muted trade ahead of the holidays as the U.S. dollar
slipped from 14-year highs.
Spot gold was steady at $1,131.54 an ounce by 0253 GMT. The metal, which hit a 10-1/2-month low of $1,122.35 last week on hawkish rate hike forecast from the Federal Reserve, ended flat in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,132.90 per ounce.
"The market is in holiday mood already and we have very few trading days before the new year. It is all going to be quiet as the investors will be holding very thin margins," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
The Federal Reserve, which hiked U.S. interest rates last week, signaled three more increases next year compared with its previous projection of two. Expectations of rate hikes lowers demand for the non-interest-paying bullion, which is priced in dollars.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped 0.1 percent to 102.950. It hit 103.65 on Tuesday, its highest since December 2002.
"The dollar is very strong and gold is going to be under pressure till Donald Trump takes over the U.S. presidency and the focus will shift to how his polices are unfolding," said Leung.
Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, continued to fall on
Wednesday, losing 0.43 percent to hit 824.54 tonnes. Holdings are down over 12 percent since November.
"A lot of ETF buyers got in at unsatisfactory levels. Clearly Trump's win was unexpected by the market and the rise in U.S. yields put further pressure on gold," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
"A break of $1,100 will see another round of big liquidations." Spot gold looks neutral in a range of $1,121-$1,137 per ounce, and an escape could indicate a direction, according to Wang Tao, Reuters analyst for commodities technicals.
So, although gold stands flat and at first glance shows nothing interesting - with closer view it is not quite so. Actually gold provides interesting combination for scalp traders. On daily chart last 5 sessions were mostly inside one to last Thu decreasing. But, gold still somehow has formed bearish grabber that suggests taking out of recent lows.
It seems logical, because gold has not quite completed 1.618 AB-CD target for approx. 1.5$. Thus, showing spike down looks reasonable here.
On 4-hour chart gold is still flirting inside the channel and not repeats not only bearish dynamic pressure patterns, but overall shape of each swing, including minor bullish grabbers. Following the harmony of current motion it seems that gold could reach 1115 area - bottom of the channel and WPS1:
On a way down price could take a shape of hourly butterfly:
If drop indeed will happen - this complete daily target and prepare background for minor upside retracement,(if it will happen at all of course...)
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,719
Good morning,
(Reuters) - Gold edged up slightly on Friday, but was on track for a seventh straight weekly decline amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for more interest rate hikes in 2017.
Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,131.19 an ounce by 0306 GMT. Bullion closed down 0.2 percent on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,132.2 per ounce. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rose more than expected in November. Other data on Thursday showed that third-quarter U.S. economic growth beat expectations.
But the number of Americans applying for unemployment aid hit a six-month high last week and U.S. consumer spending increased modestly in November. "There is not much reaction (to the news) because the pre-holiday liquidity is very tight," said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.
"It is very difficult to gauge the short term direction," Lau said, adding that gold might move according to the dollar. More consistent evidence of U.S. economic strength could prompt the Fed to tighten credit again sooner than later. Higher rates discourage buying of non-interest-paying bullion, which is priced in dollars.
The dollar hovered below the 14-year high set earlier this week. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was slightly down at 103.040.
"The dollar was finding a small bid prior to the long weekend," MKS PAMP Group trader Jason Cerisola said.
Spot gold remains neutral in a range of $1,121-$1,137 per ounce, and only an escape could indicate a direction, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Overnight, U.S. equities posted their first back-to-back daily declines of the month in light trading ahead of the
Christmas weekend. U.S. indices fell as much as 0.4 percent on Thursday. Markets globally appeared be on pause for the holidays, with the MSCI World index down 0.16 percent on Thursday, and little changed on Friday.
So, our setup on AUD needs to be updated, as aussie shows not a behavior, actually, that we were counted on. On daily chart market has hit finally all support lines @ 0.72 - MPS1 and Fib level. But this fact hasn't brought any dividends:
Today, guys, actually the last session where our short-term setup could work and this is weakest session as today, in fact, the eve of the holidays. Hardly traders will turn to active trading... This setup mostly was based on expectation of some short covering action before holidays. But right now we see total lack of any purchases on the market - as short covering as long opening. This could be seen from recent drop. Yes AUD has reached WPS1, completed butterfly, this is great. But, DRPO market mechanics suggests fast return back above first bottom, since purchases should start right around support and trap bears on wrong direction. But, as you can see - this has not happened, AUD has dropped and stayed there, no upside reaction has followed. This is bad sign. IT means no purchases or short covering at all. Fortunately we've got any DRPO confirmation:
It seems that AUD is forming another, minor butterfly and price could drop even further:
May be next week, between Xmas and New Year Holiday we will get bounce by some reason, but probably this will be different setup already. Our scenario with DRPO pattern has not been formed by market. So, probably we could take rest and prepare to Xmas. But this is also good scenario..
Don't forget, guys that major tendency on AUD is bearish. And as holidays will over, traders will return back to major direction. Thus, it seems that we will not get any bounce here, at least today. But let's keep watching. If something interesting will be formed later, we will discuss this.
(Reuters) - Gold edged up slightly on Friday, but was on track for a seventh straight weekly decline amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for more interest rate hikes in 2017.
Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,131.19 an ounce by 0306 GMT. Bullion closed down 0.2 percent on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,132.2 per ounce. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rose more than expected in November. Other data on Thursday showed that third-quarter U.S. economic growth beat expectations.
But the number of Americans applying for unemployment aid hit a six-month high last week and U.S. consumer spending increased modestly in November. "There is not much reaction (to the news) because the pre-holiday liquidity is very tight," said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.
"It is very difficult to gauge the short term direction," Lau said, adding that gold might move according to the dollar. More consistent evidence of U.S. economic strength could prompt the Fed to tighten credit again sooner than later. Higher rates discourage buying of non-interest-paying bullion, which is priced in dollars.
The dollar hovered below the 14-year high set earlier this week. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was slightly down at 103.040.
"The dollar was finding a small bid prior to the long weekend," MKS PAMP Group trader Jason Cerisola said.
Spot gold remains neutral in a range of $1,121-$1,137 per ounce, and only an escape could indicate a direction, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Overnight, U.S. equities posted their first back-to-back daily declines of the month in light trading ahead of the
Christmas weekend. U.S. indices fell as much as 0.4 percent on Thursday. Markets globally appeared be on pause for the holidays, with the MSCI World index down 0.16 percent on Thursday, and little changed on Friday.
So, our setup on AUD needs to be updated, as aussie shows not a behavior, actually, that we were counted on. On daily chart market has hit finally all support lines @ 0.72 - MPS1 and Fib level. But this fact hasn't brought any dividends:
Today, guys, actually the last session where our short-term setup could work and this is weakest session as today, in fact, the eve of the holidays. Hardly traders will turn to active trading... This setup mostly was based on expectation of some short covering action before holidays. But right now we see total lack of any purchases on the market - as short covering as long opening. This could be seen from recent drop. Yes AUD has reached WPS1, completed butterfly, this is great. But, DRPO market mechanics suggests fast return back above first bottom, since purchases should start right around support and trap bears on wrong direction. But, as you can see - this has not happened, AUD has dropped and stayed there, no upside reaction has followed. This is bad sign. IT means no purchases or short covering at all. Fortunately we've got any DRPO confirmation:
It seems that AUD is forming another, minor butterfly and price could drop even further:
May be next week, between Xmas and New Year Holiday we will get bounce by some reason, but probably this will be different setup already. Our scenario with DRPO pattern has not been formed by market. So, probably we could take rest and prepare to Xmas. But this is also good scenario..
Don't forget, guys that major tendency on AUD is bearish. And as holidays will over, traders will return back to major direction. Thus, it seems that we will not get any bounce here, at least today. But let's keep watching. If something interesting will be formed later, we will discuss this.
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