Hi Sive Morten, thank you for great analysis...
As I see you don't use very simple and VERY powerfull forex tool in long-term trading named resistance/support trend lines described by Demark and others...
I proffer you to discuss with us chart below, showing clear trend lines with clear long-term trade opportunity:
As you see on this chart 12.27.13 eurusd already hit resistance 1.3893 (it was even 20-30 poins higher than I expected) and I sold it @ 1.3890...
Soon we'll have second opportunity to sell eurusd about 1.3820 with target 1.0000 - it will be right shoulder of H&S figure and second hit of drawn resistance... After this I expect very fast drop in eurusd, so my target 1.0000 can be reached in 1-2 year period...
What do you think?
P.S. if you will try to sell eurusd @ 1.3820 too - don't forget to place stop-loss @ 1.39 - clear brake of this level will indicate strong way to 1.6 level...