Greeting, guys, I've read all your questions and will try to answer ASAP, probably tomorrow. Right now I have a short time (my wife has some health problems) and spend it on daily update. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Reuters) - The yen gained broadly on Tuesday as a recent rally in risky assets and crude oil fizzled out and revived demand for the safe-haven currency.
Sentiment for riskier assets was also hurt by China's decision to set a softer mid-point for the yuan , although most traders expect it to remain steady before a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in Shanghai later this week.
"With oil losing ground and China setting a weaker fixing risk sentiment has been hit. That is taking the yen higher," said Yujiro Goto, currency strategist at Nomura. "Also, people are not expecting any intervention by the Japanese before the G20 meeting."
A senior U.S. Treasury official told reporters on Monday that the meeting in Shanghai would reiterate the importance of commitment to avoiding forex rate misalignments.
In reiteration of existing G20 commitments, the Treasury official said members will also be asked again to refrain from manipulating exchange rates for competitive purposes.
In Europe, the focus was also on battered sterling. The pound was down 0.3 percent at $1.4105 , having slid to $1.4057 -- a low not seen since March 2009 -- on Monday. It fell nearly 2 percent on Monday, posting its biggest one-day drop in almost six years.
Selling accelerated after London Mayor Boris Johnson announced his support for Britain to leave the EU. Britons will go to the polls on June 23 to decide whether to remain in the EU and sterling is expected to volatile until the vote.
Attention will be Bank of England policymakers' testimony to lawmakers later in the day. Any comments about sterling’s recent weakness and its impact on inflation will be watched, traders said.
"Many may say that the rapid sterling weakness could eventually boost inflation, bringing forward rate hike expectations," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "With oil prices much lower today, we think sterling hasn't weakened enough yet to boost inflation expectations significantly."
Today, guys we again will take a look at AUD. It takes special role right now. First is because this is "gold" currency, and second - AUD gives very attractive rate level and it should be temptation of Japanese investors who could turn to buying Australian gov. bonds. This, in turn, could impact on AUD/JPY level. That's why recently we see not typical deviation between dollar-related currencies. For example, you could compare EUR chart, NZD with AUD - it's quite different picture.
So, our short-term setup has started from butterfly "buy" then AUD has formed reverse H&S pattern. Once it has been completed - AB-leg of our AB=CD pattern has been formed. When we've seen multiple bullish grabbers last week - we've called for long entry with minimum target around current levels. But right now AUD has not bad chances to continue rally and it still has 150+ pips potential till 0.7390 area:
View attachment 23850
As you can see market is not at overbought on daily chart, and it already broke 5/8 Fib resistance. So, it has no significant barriers on a way up, except OB level...
On 4-hour chart we have another pattern that has the same destination point. This is 1.618 butterfly "Sell"
View attachment 23851
So, it looks like currently we should watch for chances on long entry. But retracement down should not be too deep by many reasons. First - deep retracement already has happened, when market has formed BC leg. Second, right now market has completed minor 0.618 AB-CD target, AUD is not at overbought and Fib resistance. So, reasons for deep retracement are shy.
That's why very probable that we should watch for nearest 3/8 Fib support level that coincides with natural support/resistance area. This move down could start as soon as AUD will complete hourly targets around 0.7270 area, may be it will form H&S pattern here that will become a triggering one for retracement.
View attachment 23852[/QU
Commander on MN chart DRPO Buy could be confirmed for this month and NZU/USD pls check it out.
