Forex FOREX PRO WEEKLY, June 26 - 30, 2023

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
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Fundamentals

This week we've got few important events, although they were not of a decisive kind. First is, another J. Powell speech, where he has tried to look hawkish, but hasn't succeed too much with this attempt, second - Bank of Turkey rate decision, when they have raised rate more than two times. Maybe it is not as important for global markets, but it is the sign of independence, that the division among countries is growing. If just few years ago, all central banks have kept an eye on Fed and ECB and tried to set their own policy in harmony with it, now we see big difference on example of Turkey and China. While BoE has increased rate for 0.5% at once. Finally, recent PMI data in France and Germany were surprisingly low. All these moments make investors doubt on right economical course of major countries, and be indecision on nearest perspectives.

Market overview

The dollar rose against the euro on Friday after dismal business activity data from around the globe soured risk sentiment and as hawkish comments from central banks added to pressure on riskier currencies. U.S. business activity fell to a three-month low in June as services growth eased for the first time this year and the contraction in the manufacturing sector deepened, closely watched survey data out Friday showed.

The overall picture, though, indicated U.S. economic growth ticked up a notch in the second quarter even as worries persist that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases over the past year will trigger a recession.

Earlier in the session data showed euro zone business growth virtually stalled in June. A downturn in manufacturing deepened, while activity in the bloc's dominant services sector barely expanded, as overall demand fell for the first time since January. French PMI shows constant decreasing since 2021 and this week shows 47.3 level. Germany Manufacturing PMI has dropped to 41 level and EUR has started to loose value fast on yesterday's session, as investors have started to re-think of ECB rate decision next month. Hardly just PMI data will stop them from next rate hike, but it makes impact on overall background that could make an impact on ECB statement in July.

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It is becoming boring week by week to consider all these data, because we do not see no changes. Crisis is migrating from one sphere to another but all indicators slowly but stubbornly decreasing. This is specific of structural crisis, or as it also calls - "decrease of capital efficiency". Also it is not a surprise why BoE has raised the rate for 0.5% on a background of high Core CPI data.

"We're starting to see signals from businesses that the demand is starting to ease up at the margin and that's leading to recalibration of expectations of what future output looks like," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. I do think that the concern with the future outlook is weighing on risk appetite right now and the dollar is catching somewhat bid off of that. Traders squaring books as the end of the month and the quarter nears was also likely supporting the U.S. currency," Rai said.

Friday's data arrived after rate hike surprises and hawkish comments from central banks globally which have renewed market fears that policymakers have further to go in tightening policy to tame inflation, even at the risk of tipping their economies into a recession.

"After bigger than expected rate hikes in the UK and Norway yesterday, the markets are nervous about upside rate surprises, and that was helping the dollar overnight, even before we saw the European PMI data," Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank would move interest rates at a "careful pace" from here, but ruled out interest rate cuts "happening any time soon." Thus, Powell spoke again this week, but he did not say anything new, except for assurances of readiness to raise the rate. While noting that inflation remains very far from the Fed's target, Powell said it may make sense to still raise rates, at a more moderate pace.

"Looks as if Powell failed to out-hawk markets that were braced for a more explicit ratification of the median projection in the latest dot plot summary of economic projections," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at business payments company Corpay. "By sticking to the balanced, data-dependent language deployed in last week's press conference, he left investors betting that the ongoing deceleration in growth and inflation will translate into one - not two - rate hikes by year end," Schamotta said.

"Consumer Price Index and Non-Farm Payrolls in July are going to be huge events, though it does feel that unless there's some kind of disastrous jobs print they're going to hike in July come what may," TraderX market strategist Michael Brown said.

Investors broadly expect rate hikes to resume at the Fed's July meeting, though financial market indicators reflect doubts that the Fed will deliver more increases beyond that.

At the end of the 70s, when there was high inflation in the United States, the then head of the Fed, the recently deceased Paul Volcker, raised the rate as much as 20% - because he understood that otherwise he could not cope with inflation. As we can see, the reaction of the current Fed leadership is completely different. Yes, since then, debt has accumulated, first of all, by households. The average household debt in the United States has roughly doubled in relation to real disposable income, from 60% to more than 100% (at its peak, in 2008, it was more than 130%). And this, in the context of an increase in the rate, has an extremely negative impact on aggregate demand. Namely, he mainly forms the US GDP.

But if you want to stimulate demand, then in order for this to have an effect, you need to maintain demand for domestic products. Then, in the 70s, there was no such question at all, there were practically no non-American products on the US markets. But today, the actual monetary authorities of the United States stimulate demand for Chinese products ... there is no economic sense in this at all.

In other words, the leadership of the US monetary authorities needs to decide. Or spit on inflation, lower the rate and start supporting demand by sharply raising import tariffs and stimulating domestic production. Or — forget about GDP and household incomes, recognize the inevitability of a sharp decline in living standards, raise the rate to 12-15% and reduce inflation. However, this will have to be done in an election year…

Data out on Friday showed that Japan's core consumer inflation exceeded forecasts in May and an index excluding fuel costs rose at the fastest annual pace in 42 years, putting pressure on the BOJ to phase out its massive stimulus. The British currency has come under pressure from rising expectations the UK economy could slip into recession after the Bank of England on Thursday delivered an outsized rate hike in response to persistent inflation.

In fact, it is impossible to avoid a serious decline in GDP and the standard of living of the population in the United States, and therefore it is necessary to think about how to make the process of re-industrialization profitable. We do not know whether the leaders of the US monetary authorities will reach this thought, but there are doubts that this is possible with their current composition. At the same time, what Powell fears can be understood. Well, for example, the excess (created in 2020) savings of the population are melting and will soon come to an end:
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At the same time, they play an important role in the current demand. While banking sector shows not good processes at all:

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And this is happening on a background of rising banking loans portfolios and debt, and not only in the US.

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may mop up as much as 90% of the money they pumped into banks over the last decade now that high inflation and interest rates make that extra liquidity unnecessary, a paper by a Fed economist showed on Thursday. The Fed paper, which will be presented to top central bankers next week at the ECB's annual get-together in Portugal, delves into the question of how much cash the Fed and the ECB should keep in the banking system to satisfy demand for reserves now that monetary stimulus is no longer needed.

Its author, a senior adviser to the Federal Reserve Board, estimates the Fed could reduce total reserves from their current $6 trillion to between $600 billion and $3.3 trillion depending on whether it would accept U.S. government bonds or less coveted assets in return.

Similarly, the ECB could shrink its own provision of liquidity from 4.1 trillion euros ($4.51 trillion) at present to as little as 521 billion euros, if it only accepts German government bonds, or 1.4 trillion euros against other assets.Neither scenario is entirely plausible in the near term as both the Fed and the ECB have a mix of government bonds and other types of debt on their balance sheet.

Inflation in the United States will not decline as quickly as markets are currently pricing, according to a note from strategists at Goldman Sachs cited in a Bloomberg report on Saturday.

"Although we expect further declines in inflation going forward, markets appear considerably more optimistic than we are about the pace of cooling," the Goldman strategists wrote in the note dated on Friday, according to the Bloomberg report. Markets are ignoring the potential for "delayed-onset inflation" in sectors such as healthcare, the strategists wrote, Bloomberg reported.

The strategists wrote that investors could be assuming that a sharp deceleration in U.S. economic growth will lead to a more rapid easing of price pressures. But the strategists, according to the Bloomberg report, saw limited chances for those factors to bring down inflation. The Goldman strategists recommended that investors who share their viewpoint on inflation buy one-year swaps to bet on inflation realizing higher than current market pricing, according to the Bloomberg report.

J. Yellen believes that the risk of a recession has decreased, but the consumer will have to sacrifice. In order for inflation to be under control, it will be necessary to achieve some reduction in consumer spending , Janet Yellen admitted. Simply speaking, the American consumer must become a victim in the fight against rising prices, and the main thing for the regulator is to achieve the necessary macroeconomic indicators

Next week we will get a lot of important data. The latest consumer confidence report arrives on Tuesday after the measure slipped to a six-month low in May. June's index is expected to tick higher. A window into the housing market also comes on Tuesday with the Case-Shiller national home price index. The index climbed 0.4% in March after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations. The week ends with the May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, a key inflation gauge. In the 12 months through April, the PCE price index increased 4.4%.

China's June factory activity data takes centre stage on Friday, though if anything, the figures will add to the narrative of a faltering recovery. Beijing seems to be in no hurry to unleash massive stimulus so far and is instead drip-feeding it, first by cutting medium-term loan rates, then by lowering its key lending benchmarks.

Bad news could be taken as a positive, if traders see it as a way of pushing authorities to offer more support to the economy - as long as it eventually arrives. But if hopes are running high, patience is wearing thin. Most economists have cut their growth forecasts as the prospect of GDP adding more than 6% fades away.

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Now is few words on Turkey central bank decision. A sharp increase in the rate by the central bank of Turkey, by 6.5% percent, to 15.0%. Moreover, he tends to raise it further. The importance of the decision of the Central Bank of Turkey is that before the major economies of the world followed the decisions of the US Federal Reserve. Accordingly, no one raised the stakes particularly. And then a decision was made that had nothing to do with American politics. This can be an example for everyone, even for the Fed leadership. In general, this is a serious event.

Update on US Liquidity situation


In continuation of the topic that the Fed (or Powell personally?) he does not understand how inflation works and why the increase in supply-side costs (including due to de-globalization processes) suddenly does not allow inflation to decrease. I invite everyone to read the speech of the Deputy head of the Federal Reserve Donald Kohn at the 51st economic conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston entitled "The impact of globalization on inflation and their consequences for monetary policy."

In short, back in 2006, they understood the disinflationary effect of globalization on US domestic inflation. Maybe the equations were not formulated and the statistics were not knocked out, but they understood. In general, I bring this to confirm that the Fed knows that current inflation cannot be defeated by raising rates and that a high rate only leads to its retention at a high level, but for some reason it does not reduce it.

Now, back to liquidity... first thing that we have to mention here, and actually already mentioned in Telegram, that It's a tough time for investors again and they have to choose. Because the yield of the main asset classes equalized last week, and now it is the same for treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds and the S&P 500 index.
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Since the default risk, at least nominal, is differ for all these assets, everything goes with the plan of US Treasury - investors directly or indirectly but should choose the US bonds that cared minimum risk among all the others. Thus, the likelihood of a massive rebalancing is getting higher. ️Recall that earlier JP Morgan experts predicted a powerful correction in stock markets as part of the rebalancing. The ongoing stock rally will face a new threat over the next few weeks as the world's largest money managers look to divest up to $150 billion worth of stocks, they write.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021. Bank experts predict a powerful correction as part of the rebalancing. The ongoing stock rally will face a new threat over the next few weeks as the world's largest money managers look to divest up to $150 billion worth of stocks, they write.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021 . According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this process could reduce the price of global stocks by as much as 5%.
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To be honest, there is no better definition of a bubble - for the first time in history, the yield of cash, bonds and US stocks is at the same level - 5.3%

Assets with different risks are traded with the same yield. It is important to understand here that such an imbalance is a problem in itself. How problematic it was that banks had zero cost of short funding and invested in long-term instruments. Any crisis is built on imbalances of risk and return.

"The crisis does not destroy value, the crisis shows how much value has been destroyed."
It's about the same. When you buy expensive what is actually cheap - this means that you have an unrealized loss, destroyed value, which will eventually come to the surface in a crisis. Where this world is heading... although it is clear where - it is heading into a full-scale crisis.

Meantime the TGA account (the account of the Ministry of Finance in the Fed) has grown to $ 328 billion, and the reverse repo has stopped shrinking since June 15 and starts growing. Major reasons for that is no auctions for the shortest Treasuries, which are bought by moneymarket funds since then. So someone else bought the long ones.

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Experts tell that it would be better to not hurry to draw conclusions about the reduction of liquidity in the market, because we still need to see what happened to bank reserves, to the assets of the Fed, with M2, or rather with M1 (we will not see this soon) in order to understand where the money came from. For now we see that this week Fed assets has dropped for ~ 26 Bln. The Fed sold its assets for a decent amount of $19.4 billion.

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In general, in 2-3 weeks it will begin to clear up. But if the Ministry of Finance continues to place long securities, either it will become difficult for the markets, or banks have finally begun to collect long securities against the background of the termination of the Fed rate hike. Or maybe with the hope or understanding of a future rate cut, which will allow them to earn on these treasuries.

I would like to emphasize once again - all thoughts about "where the money comes from" to replenish the account of the Ministry of Finance rest not only on where this money is - in reverse repo, in bank reserves, in a safe in bundles or somewhere else, but also in the actions of the Ministry of Finance, the Fed's rate decisions, regulation and, in fact, the rate on the placed Treasuries in comparison with the current alternative rates.

That is, no unambiguous forecasts "liquidity from the market will go to buy new issues of treasuries and there will be hell" or "new money will come from repo / reserves, etc. and this will be an infusion of liquidity into the system" cannot be given. Too many unknowns, unfortunately.

As you remember, on the eve of raising the debt ceiling, the Ministry of Finance placed mainly short papers for a month. Who bought them? It doesn't matter at all. They were bought by someone who wanted exactly short papers, not long ones. It can be money market funds, for example, or someone else.

If you look at the auction results at the link above, you can see that there are also long paper placements. Those who needed short securities as a conditional analogue of a cache or a short deposit will not buy long ones. Accordingly, when the peak of refinancing of a really large number of short securities that were placed by the Ministry of Finance in late May-early June comes, a significant part of these short securities can be refinanced by long ones. Well, simply because the Ministry of Finance wants to have long-term obligations.

Then what will happen? Then buyers of short securities will say "the number of short securities has fallen, so my alternative with a similar rate, where I can place in a short - reverse repo" and the amount of money in reverse repo with the Fed will grow even more, which means liquidity in the financial system will fall. It is unclear what will happen to the Fed's assets at the same time. They have slowed down now, assets are not declining, but they can, for example, accelerate this deferred sale and also take liquidity from the system.

This is just an illustration to the fact that everything is very uncertain and depends on the actions of the same Ministry of Finance and the Fed. If they want to pass safely, they will pass, if they don't want to, they will fail the system. Sometime on July 7-8, when the data will be released, it will become clear. If something doesn't fall loudly a couple of days before.

Meantime, we see that US banks continue to take money through emergency Fed assistance programs. The total amount of debt now stands at $106 billion.
️Banks' use of the Fed's emergency bank financing program rose again to a new record of $0.8 billion more than last week, while use of the discount window fell by $0.4 billion to $3.2 billion.
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For the second week in a row, money market funds record an out flow️. The decline in funds was $18.2 billion, the biggest weekly decline since the week of Christmas 2022. Today these are liquid assets, and tomorrow they are Treasuries, which must be urgently sold. By the way, these are the very notorious $5 trillion that bothered investors. community a year ago, but then everyone was talking about the savings of the population, which were mostly in banks. Now, after the bank fall, trillions have moved to money market funds and many are waiting to be jittered out from there as well. Adventure is no worse than the gold of the Templars.
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For this week balance is matched - Fed has sold around 19 Trln while around 18 Trln was out from money market funds. Changes in BTFP programme and Ministry of Finance cash are not significant. To better understand what Fed and US Treasury intends to do, we need to wait when really big new US Bonds issues will be placed, and what will happen then. By far fluctuations look too small.

In general, it can be noted that against the background of the ongoing structural crisis, which is no longer even interesting to comment on, the macroeconomic picture has not changed for many months, the only instrument to maintain the situation is the emission. Either monetary (from the central banks), or credit. Which makes it increasingly dangerous to tighten monetary policy, since it can cause a collapse of defaults, both private and corporate. With the corresponding collapse of financial markets.

Of course, based only on macroeconomic data, it is quite difficult to determine this moment, but the general trend, apparently, can no longer change. It remains to develop compensatory measures and not to panic.

Price action looks very nervous right now. Recall how brave EUR were climbing higher on a background of Fed/ECB decision last week and how fast it has turned down this week. It discovers that investors are not sure with current trend and too sensitive to the news of any kind. EUR upside action, despite it looks fast and solid, but has the lack of safety margin, bringing risks to be over at any moment. Signs of PMI weakness makes investors doubt on EUR performance and ECB decision next time. With such a background the best decision is to go from one definite trading setup to another, without making too extended forecasts into the future.
 
Technicals
Monthly

Monthly chart brings no big shifts, as price still stands inside the May range, making no impact on a big picture. All things that we've said previously are still correct. Monthly MACD trend remains bullish, but in a longer-term picture we have few epic targets that are not completed yet. All time XOP (blue) around 0.9 and other ones of a smaller scale. Downside acceleration looks fast, and keeping fundamental background aside, based on purely technical moments, odds suggest downside continuation at some point, right to the final target. And butterfly perfectly fits to this strategy:

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This shape could show B&B "Sell" performance, and last month we even have got the 1st closed below 3x3 DMA, but downside action still fizzles. Based on pivot points frame work, EUR also keeps positive sentiment, as it jumped up precisely from YPS1 and now stands above YPP.
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Weekly

The same we could say about weekly picture. Since the upside breakout, upside action has slowed a bit. Price stands in a wide wedge pattern, where it could spend pretty much time. Trend is bearish here, but hardly it could make impact on daily performance right now. The one thing that we could say is 1.1250-1.1275 is strong weekly resistance.

Situation could become interesting, if EUR suddenly drops back to lows, turning down in the middle of the wedge. This will be definite sign of weakness. Or, say, if we get bearish grabber next week. But at current moment, weekly picture doesn't help us a lot.
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Daily

Here performance is more interesting. Mostly it shows that bulls do not have a lot of confidence with current tendency market is thin. As we've said above, PMI data was enough to crash EUR. Still, technically this reaction on COP target looks reasonable. Retracement looks strong, and EUR has formed bearish reversal swing. This significantly increases chances on 2-leg downside action, in a way of some AB-CD maybe. Most probable target here is daily oversold around 1.0810 area, that is also 50% Fib support level. Trend remains bullish by far.
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Intraday

Since we have more or less strong upside performance on daily chart, and price now at 3/8 support, before 2nd downside leg starts to happen, EUR could show pretty nice upside bounce.

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I would consider 1.0910-1.0915 K-resistance, at least, or even slightly higher. Also in a way of some upside AB-CD maybe.
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That's being said, for the bulls - you could try either to take scalp long position as soon as we get bullish patterns on 1H chart. Probably something should appear (if any) on Monday. Or, if you're trader of a bigger scale - wait when downside retracement exhausts. Supposedly around 1.08-1.0810 area later in the week.

For the bears - the opposite tactic. We should wait when first upside bounce will be over and watch this point for 2nd downside leg starting point.
 
Morning everybody,

So, we're gradually moving with our trading plan and upside bounce, a kind of B&B, or better to call it as just momentum trade is coming to predefined level. Now we could start watching for bearish signs around:
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As we've said - bounce should be not less that 50% of downside retracement, or even 5/8 as it usually happens with B&B and it seems price is somewhere around:
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Here we have two major upside extensions. Our major is a blue one with 1.0953 target, which makes Agreement resistance with major 5/8 Fib level. Once EUR will complete OP - it is preferable to drop the time frame and watch for bearish reversal patterns there. If we right - we should get downside AB-CD pattern to ~ 1.0820-1.0850 area, daily 50% Fib support area and oversold. If we wrong - we probably get just minor pullback, around 3/8 due "222" Sell shape and EUR turns up then to next, XOP 1.0970 target.

But anyway, some downside reaction should happen, which makes entry attempt relatively safe, at least from probabilities point of view:
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Morning everybody,

So, market has completed upside intraday targets, and now is trying to start downside tendency, as a continuation of daily bearish reversal swing. In general - everything goes with our trading plan, although downside turn has happened 20 pips higher XOP 1H target and not from predefined 1.0950 area:
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From technical point of view, until EUR stands inside recent downside swing - it keeps chances on downside extension in a way of AB-CD. Thus, from this point of view, invalidation point is above the top. But it might be too extended level, especially for those who trade intraday:
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That's why, here, on 1H chart we need to move stops to breakeven first, if you have taken position around XOP and "Evening star" pattern, that has been formed right around it. Second - keep an eye on how market reacts on support areas, especially 1.0920. If it breaks it down - chances that we get big AB-CD to 1.0820 will increase. Inability to break it, turning to sideways/slow upward action right after "Evening star" OP target will be reached means that no downside continuation happens, and EUR could return back to upside tendency. Meantime, everything looks OK.
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Morning everybody,

I've got a lot of requests about Asia Pacific, currencies - AUD, NZD, which we, for the truth sake, were taking a look very rare recently. Thus, today we correct this miss, and take a look at AUD.

Speaking on EUR - everything is just fine, as you could, EUR is breaking through major support areas and now is showing response to major 5/8 1H support. Now we need just to manage stops.

AUD looks weak now. Probably there is some fundamental background exists - same structural crisis as everywhere, China economy is slowdown as well, which is a major trading partner for Australia. As a result, on monthly chart we have multiple bearish grabbers, suggesting action somewhere to 0.64 lows area at least:
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On weekly chart price stands in widening triangle. But here we're interested with two other moments. In short-term - this is strong last week drop, that has decisive meaning for daily and intraday charts. Second, you easily could imagine big downside butterfly here (if you can't - watch today's video) with 0.60 target:
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On daily time frame downside action looks relatively strong. Nearest COP target coincides with the "B" point lows around 0.6464 area. Next one is OP stands around 0.61 and fits to monthly grabbers target:
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On 4H chart we do not see any specific patterns. So, the only thing that we could say, if you want to take short position - just watch for the bounce to resistance areas here, watch for "222" Sell, other continuation patterns:
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Morning everybody,

So, EUR still keeps our trading plan valid, testing daily support for the 2nd time and keeps chances to reach 1.0810 support area, which now seems as most probable destination of this journey. Although, hardly it happens today. If only we get outstanding Core PCE and EU CPI numbers.

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Here is our downside AB-CD that we're watching. CD leg is slowing, which means that around OP we probably will get reversal, or solid upside reaction, at least. Now price is re-testing K-support area. In the middle of the CD leg we've got nice bearish reversal bar due recent statistics release - GDP and Initial claims:
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But this is for those who intend to keep position through the weekend. If you prefer to not do this, you could watch for 1.0845 1H local AB-CD target for booking result. Also recall that today we get Core PCE and EU CPI numbers that could bring some volatility as well.
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