Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,679
Monthly
In fact, I’ve drawn most interesting thing on chart by lime line – will price turn to AB=CD upward retracement and test again K-resistance or not. Now it looks a bit scaring by black May candle, still chances exist…
Since market has shown downward week, our primary attention gradually shifts to weekly time frame, particularly to its trend – will market be able to hold bullish trend on weekly or not. If trend will break it probably will lead to downward continuation on monthly chart and retracement will be over. All other thoughts are still the same:
Trend holds bearish. Almost 4th month in a row market stands in consolidation after hitting of Agreement around 1.2950-1.30 area. Since Agreement is stronger area than just simple Fib level we have suggested that market could show some deeper retracement up and retest 1.37-1.38 level. Current price action on weekly chart shows that this indeed could happen. In general, we can say, that market is locked between Agreement support and Confluence resistance area.
Recall that our long term expectation is dollar appreciation to 1.16 level and move to 1.37 will be treated just as retracement in a bearish monthly trend. Overall price action looks so, that does not care any hidden hazard for bearish sentiment. Price stands in a tight range after significant thrust down. This is very common and nice situation for bears.
From bearish perspective 1.37 K-level has extreme importance as holding barrier. We can accept reaching of 1.37 from long-term bearish view, but we anyhow can’t justify move through it. If it will really happen, I mean breakout through 1.37, then it will put under question overall bearish view on long-term charts.
Weekly
So, we see strong bearish picture on weekly – trend has turned bearish, market accelerated through MPS1 with gap opened, triangle was broken to the downside. Despite the fact how bearish current picture is – what chances still bulls have? I see only one way how bulls could drastically change overall picture. Recall that on previous week we’ve said: “If market will show some jump from 1.29 then it could lead to appearing of bullish stop grabber and we can hope on upward move”. So, this opportunity has not been vanished totally yet. Although stop grabber is mostly single bar pattern, but sometimes it forms as two bars pattern. It looks like trend shifting at the first bar and fast reestablishing of previous trend on second. So, if this will be really the case we s will be able to count on AB=CD move still either to 1.3435 (0.618 extension target) or even 1.37 (1.0 extension target).
Hence, coming week will become determinative one. Market will have to show 150 pips jump up for reestablishing bullish trend on weekly chart. This is absolutely reachable and not much distance for weekly time frame. If this will not happen, then we will have to prepare to possess ourselves for long-term downward trading in a row with monthly time frame.
Still, since upward move opportunity has some chances and 150 pips is significant move, we should react on this possibility somehow and we have to prepare trading plan for this case too.
Daily
Well, market has reached destination that we’ve specified on previous week – 1.29 area. Although it has done it not by Butterfly pattern (that was preferable for us), still we’re here, what’s next? Currently I can say nothing except to wait one more week and watch close to the same level. Current price action on daily and intraday charts (as well as fundamentals) makes me doubt bullish perspectives, but yet chances still exist we have to take them into consideration. Here we do not see anything new. All that I can do on daily is just to show pivot points and resistance levels. Take a note that WPR1 stands at 1.3019, while we need close above 1.3050 to shift weekly trend to bullish again. Here is how different technical tools confirm each other – moving above WPR1 after solid bear trend indicates potential reversal. That is what we need by the end of coming week. Conversely we will have to search short entry point.
Second note – if jump up will happen – do not upset if you will miss initial move. After such solid downward move market probably will give us deep retracement, where we can enter. May be this is even most preferable way to act and much safer. Apply enter on retracement and buy deep instead of catching falling knife. In current environment it seems reasonable.
4-hour
Market slowly but steadily moves lower. As we’ve said previously market gravitates to nearly standing daily targets – one has been hit already and another one stands in 1.2890 area. Here picture is clearly bearish and gives confidence that market will hit 1.618 butterfly’s point with solid probability:
- Excellent example of bearish dynamic pressure. Trend holds bullish but price action is not and does not support it;
- Small retracement after 1.27 extension and no reversal. There is just single area left – 1.618 extension;
- Recall that we’ve said about DRPO LAL in updates. Here we have DRPO LAL failure.
Hourly
This picture I leave intact – levels still valid, since market shows very slow move down.
Conclusion:
Long-term traders come in final period of their expectation. If weekly trend will not turn back to bullish on coming week, then they can use first rally on weekly to enter short in continuation of monthly move. If opposite will happen, then they will have to wait a bit more and probably get better entry level around either 1.3450 or 1.37.
On short-term perspective we come to the point – either rally to 1.3050 by the end of the week or we will start to search opportunity to sell then.
4-hour chart shows high probability of reaching 1.2890 area. By this move market will reach all targets standing around. So, here we can act twofold:
1. If you want to take more risk, you may try to enter long around 4-hour Butterfly 1.618 completion point. That will be some sort of falling knife catching. Still this tactic is not miserably hopeless. Place stop not farer than 40 pips from entry point. Monitor your position and move stop to breakeven as soon as possible.
2. Safer way to enter and I like this way more – is to wait real thrusting action from 1.29 area. If no thrusting action will come – you will have no loss. Disadvantage of this strategy is that you will have to sit on your hands one more week.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
In fact, I’ve drawn most interesting thing on chart by lime line – will price turn to AB=CD upward retracement and test again K-resistance or not. Now it looks a bit scaring by black May candle, still chances exist…
Since market has shown downward week, our primary attention gradually shifts to weekly time frame, particularly to its trend – will market be able to hold bullish trend on weekly or not. If trend will break it probably will lead to downward continuation on monthly chart and retracement will be over. All other thoughts are still the same:
Trend holds bearish. Almost 4th month in a row market stands in consolidation after hitting of Agreement around 1.2950-1.30 area. Since Agreement is stronger area than just simple Fib level we have suggested that market could show some deeper retracement up and retest 1.37-1.38 level. Current price action on weekly chart shows that this indeed could happen. In general, we can say, that market is locked between Agreement support and Confluence resistance area.
Recall that our long term expectation is dollar appreciation to 1.16 level and move to 1.37 will be treated just as retracement in a bearish monthly trend. Overall price action looks so, that does not care any hidden hazard for bearish sentiment. Price stands in a tight range after significant thrust down. This is very common and nice situation for bears.
From bearish perspective 1.37 K-level has extreme importance as holding barrier. We can accept reaching of 1.37 from long-term bearish view, but we anyhow can’t justify move through it. If it will really happen, I mean breakout through 1.37, then it will put under question overall bearish view on long-term charts.
Weekly
So, we see strong bearish picture on weekly – trend has turned bearish, market accelerated through MPS1 with gap opened, triangle was broken to the downside. Despite the fact how bearish current picture is – what chances still bulls have? I see only one way how bulls could drastically change overall picture. Recall that on previous week we’ve said: “If market will show some jump from 1.29 then it could lead to appearing of bullish stop grabber and we can hope on upward move”. So, this opportunity has not been vanished totally yet. Although stop grabber is mostly single bar pattern, but sometimes it forms as two bars pattern. It looks like trend shifting at the first bar and fast reestablishing of previous trend on second. So, if this will be really the case we s will be able to count on AB=CD move still either to 1.3435 (0.618 extension target) or even 1.37 (1.0 extension target).
Hence, coming week will become determinative one. Market will have to show 150 pips jump up for reestablishing bullish trend on weekly chart. This is absolutely reachable and not much distance for weekly time frame. If this will not happen, then we will have to prepare to possess ourselves for long-term downward trading in a row with monthly time frame.
Still, since upward move opportunity has some chances and 150 pips is significant move, we should react on this possibility somehow and we have to prepare trading plan for this case too.
Daily
Well, market has reached destination that we’ve specified on previous week – 1.29 area. Although it has done it not by Butterfly pattern (that was preferable for us), still we’re here, what’s next? Currently I can say nothing except to wait one more week and watch close to the same level. Current price action on daily and intraday charts (as well as fundamentals) makes me doubt bullish perspectives, but yet chances still exist we have to take them into consideration. Here we do not see anything new. All that I can do on daily is just to show pivot points and resistance levels. Take a note that WPR1 stands at 1.3019, while we need close above 1.3050 to shift weekly trend to bullish again. Here is how different technical tools confirm each other – moving above WPR1 after solid bear trend indicates potential reversal. That is what we need by the end of coming week. Conversely we will have to search short entry point.
Second note – if jump up will happen – do not upset if you will miss initial move. After such solid downward move market probably will give us deep retracement, where we can enter. May be this is even most preferable way to act and much safer. Apply enter on retracement and buy deep instead of catching falling knife. In current environment it seems reasonable.
4-hour
Market slowly but steadily moves lower. As we’ve said previously market gravitates to nearly standing daily targets – one has been hit already and another one stands in 1.2890 area. Here picture is clearly bearish and gives confidence that market will hit 1.618 butterfly’s point with solid probability:
- Excellent example of bearish dynamic pressure. Trend holds bullish but price action is not and does not support it;
- Small retracement after 1.27 extension and no reversal. There is just single area left – 1.618 extension;
- Recall that we’ve said about DRPO LAL in updates. Here we have DRPO LAL failure.
Hourly
This picture I leave intact – levels still valid, since market shows very slow move down.
Conclusion:
Long-term traders come in final period of their expectation. If weekly trend will not turn back to bullish on coming week, then they can use first rally on weekly to enter short in continuation of monthly move. If opposite will happen, then they will have to wait a bit more and probably get better entry level around either 1.3450 or 1.37.
On short-term perspective we come to the point – either rally to 1.3050 by the end of the week or we will start to search opportunity to sell then.
4-hour chart shows high probability of reaching 1.2890 area. By this move market will reach all targets standing around. So, here we can act twofold:
1. If you want to take more risk, you may try to enter long around 4-hour Butterfly 1.618 completion point. That will be some sort of falling knife catching. Still this tactic is not miserably hopeless. Place stop not farer than 40 pips from entry point. Monitor your position and move stop to breakeven as soon as possible.
2. Safer way to enter and I like this way more – is to wait real thrusting action from 1.29 area. If no thrusting action will come – you will have no loss. Disadvantage of this strategy is that you will have to sit on your hands one more week.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.