FOREX PRO Weekly October 10-14, 2011

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 13, October 2011

Good morning,
Despite how wise we are - market is always wiser. It seems - what stronger we can imagine, than combination of K-area, overbought and Agreement + pivot point? Nothing, I suppose, but still market has pierced this area and reached 1.618 target of Butterfly rather than just 1.27. I'm sure that in most cases - market starts the retracement in such conditions, but not always of cause...

So, what do we have today?
For daily bulls nothing has changed much - we are at overbought and Agreement. It's not the time to jump in. Wait for pullback. Probably the same we could apply to intraday bulls. But what about bears?

On 4-hour chart we see that 1.0 extension target from recent AB-CD stands right at daily overbought and creates an Agreement with daily Fib resistance at 1.3843. Also we see strong up bar right to 0.618 target, that is also a 1.618 form farer AB-CD. Existing of such bars near targets tells that there are a high probability of upward continuation. Also pay attention, that this could be Stop grabber on 4-hour chart at last candle, although it has not closed yet.

On hourly chart we see the same. Although trend has turned bearish and market is forming something like H&S - be extra carefull if you intend to take that signal. Strong thrusting move right to the target of Butterfly and AB-CD target tells that the probability of failure is high.
That's why if you still want to sell due this H&S - place stop somewhere above 1.3785 - Agreement and Overbought. This will add you more protection.

For conservative enter, I suppose we should see move below 1.37 to confirm intraday turning to retracement.
 

Attachments

BackSpace

Private, 1st Class
Messages
55
Lose connection

Hi Backspace,

I have been with AVA for 2 years now and in all that time I can honestly say I have had maybe 2 or 3 requotes and those were always during periods of high volatility. They claim to be a no dealing desk outfit and I think they are.

I just mention this because manual trading during very volatile moments would create situations in which your orders does not reach the market fast enough to pass. Secondly Sive always advices us to stay flat during times like that. Something to consider maybe.

Happy pipping,

Geert
Hi Geert,

Thanks for your comment.

One problem that I have with AVA is that the connection is lost on a regular basis, if only for a few minutes or so. It happens also during periods of high volitility. Do you have that problem. You are in the Netherlands. right !?

BackSpace
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
hey sive, market has reached market 1.618 target of the butterfly but refuses to turn around.......
Hi Sive,

The price has reached 1.3785. What will be the down side target I should look for?

Thanks.
Hi Sive,

Do you think the 1.3868 will be reached before retracement starts? Will there be a retracement? Or do I close now, take the loss and lick my wounds?

Thanks in advance you for your reply and insight.

Kind regards,

Geert
Guys, when some move is underway - I also sit and look, as you do :)
to make any conclusion we have to wait some signs to understand potential future price action. That's why when you see just huge white candles - it's difficult to speak about downward reversal or something. Need to wait till pause will come...

Hi Sive,

Have we overlooked a few things (see attached chart) !?

- Bullish Gartley on M15
- Reverse or Hidden bullish divergence
- Previous high around 13800

What are your thoughts ?

Kind regards, BackSpace
Hi BackSpace,
On your chart I'm not sure about hidden Divergence, but Gartley is OK.

Conclusion:
Until market stands in downward channel we can’t be focus on some extended moves. Although, there are still chances exist of upward retracement on weekly chart, since market stands at support, on daily chart we have no confirmation and clear signs of that yet.
That’s why, in the beginning of the week our level to watch is pivot at 1.3350. I suspect that market could show retracement to 1.3280-1.33 area, since it has hit some intraday targets and shows “222” Sell pattern. After that the moment of truth will come – if market will return right above 1.3350, we may count on move to 1.3650. If not – then, I suppose, market will move to 1.30.
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Sive, it was written by you just several days ago. Do you believe the market can reach 1.30 area?

Thanks.
Hi Alf,
Now you've got two new candles - how you could not change the perception of the market? Once J. M. Keynes said - when situation changes - I change my mind. And what do you do, sir?

It could be strange if I have not added new events in analysis, right?

Besides, even from perspective of that anaysis - everything OK. We said, that Pivot is crucial area - market has not even touched it and accelerated with upward channel's breakout.

Hi Sive,

I wonder if you could go over the most logical targets to the upside (or to the downside) in your daily video updates, in the event the market goes in the opposite direction than anticipated. In other words, potential scenarios in case of either increase or decline. In that way, we can learn to think on our feet with any scenario.
Hi Icarus,
I'll try to include this in my overviews. Thanks for reminding.
 

Geert Anthonis

Private, 1st Class
Messages
33
Netherlands???

Hi Geert,

Thanks for your comment.

One problem that I have with AVA is that the connection is lost on a regular basis, if only for a few minutes or so. It happens also during periods of high volitility. Do you have that problem. You are in the Netherlands. right !?

BackSpace
Sorry to disappoint you. Maybe you did not notice but my location is given as Kaohsiung. That is the Southern port city in Taiwan. The internet here is extremely good and very cheap.

Geert
 

Triantus Shango

Sergeant Major
Messages
1,372
You did if you didn´t catch the selloff after all. Anyway it seems we won´t see 1.3350, at least this week.
actually, i lucked out and am 42 pips in the money. now the problem is, those damn sell stops under 3680 have not been triggered. to cover or not to cover is the question. am doing this half blind so-to-speak. on an ipad. the app has no fib retracement tool and 1/2 my favorite indicators are missing. so i owe a big thank you to sive here.

will this accursed currency drop or what? aahhh patience... why is it so hard to be patient?
 

georgeta

Sergeant
Messages
157
Hello Mr. Morten!
I think there are some interesting things that are not covered in Forex Military School. We learned about the Fib targets and retracements but I see that you are paying a lot of attention to the nature of the price move near targets. Could you open a chapter about this kind of details or is this too advanced?
Have a good weekend!
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,867
Hello Mr. Morten!
I think there are some interesting things that are not covered in Forex Military School. We learned about the Fib targets and retracements but I see that you are paying a lot of attention to the nature of the price move near targets. Could you open a chapter about this kind of details or is this too advanced?
Have a good weekend!
Hi Georgeta,
actually, I've written about all nuances (at least I think so), concerning Extension+level theme - W&R, failure breakout if target stands slightly beyond the level etc...

Could you please specify what particular absent on your opinion? Probably I'll be able to add this.
 

Damian1987

Corporal
Messages
149
Hi Sive! I've been squating with a free trial, Joe Dinapoli's forums wich are pretty cool to gather knowledge. For what I've seen various traders have taken private seminars with Dinapoli experts or Joe himself and have been taught some advanced techniques and new definitions. I've seen something like the "dominant extension" (posted by Dinapoli himself) of a series of valid extensions and how to identify it and aswell trading plans like SOR "Scalp-O-Rama" and another one I don't remember the name. My questions are: Have you taken some of these seminars or are you aware of these trading plans and advanced lessons? I have the feeling this is somehow implicit in your weekly review and that these techniques for advance p-sem attendants are more like a marketing strategy or , at the most, a one-on-one review of normal , regular Dinapoli levels trading method. But hey, It could just be the other way around and there's some info you could share with me and the others. Thanks for everything man, your work is amazingly helpfull.
 
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