Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,872
Morning guys,
Situation on EUR looks tricky today, because formally market has created new lows compares to grabber's one, but reality and common sense tells that bullish context is valid. The price action that we see shows a lot of bullish patterns that overcome effect of grabbers destruction. In fact, this was not a destruction but W&R of its lows, which bullish pattern by itself. Second issue - we have divergence with dollar index, where this grabber is still valid and was not Washed out by NFP release. This W&R has happened right at major 50% Fib level:
On intraday charts we have other bullish signs. First is triangle which is bullish continuation pattern. W&R was also a failure attempt of breakout, and after that we see good upside acceleration. It means that now we do not take in consideration our 1.1465 Agreement area, and downside AB-CD pattern. Also, chances to get "222" Buy that we've discussed in weekend are diminished, because it was based on breakout but we didn't get it. Finally here we have nice MACD bullish div. as well:
On hourly chart this action reminds Double Bottom. AB-CD pattern on the slope has OP target that stands above the neckline, and this moment increases chances on breakout. Now price is challenging previous consolidation right under neckline, if it will break there, this will be 50% of success and significantly increase chances on upside breakout. Target of this Double Bottom is 1.18 area:
Although targets could change a bit as well as shape of price action, but what we could say right now definitely, it is not time to go short right now and our scenario with "222" has not been confirmed. Thus, our primary view by far is upside continuation right from current levels.
Situation on EUR looks tricky today, because formally market has created new lows compares to grabber's one, but reality and common sense tells that bullish context is valid. The price action that we see shows a lot of bullish patterns that overcome effect of grabbers destruction. In fact, this was not a destruction but W&R of its lows, which bullish pattern by itself. Second issue - we have divergence with dollar index, where this grabber is still valid and was not Washed out by NFP release. This W&R has happened right at major 50% Fib level:
On intraday charts we have other bullish signs. First is triangle which is bullish continuation pattern. W&R was also a failure attempt of breakout, and after that we see good upside acceleration. It means that now we do not take in consideration our 1.1465 Agreement area, and downside AB-CD pattern. Also, chances to get "222" Buy that we've discussed in weekend are diminished, because it was based on breakout but we didn't get it. Finally here we have nice MACD bullish div. as well:
On hourly chart this action reminds Double Bottom. AB-CD pattern on the slope has OP target that stands above the neckline, and this moment increases chances on breakout. Now price is challenging previous consolidation right under neckline, if it will break there, this will be 50% of success and significantly increase chances on upside breakout. Target of this Double Bottom is 1.18 area:
Although targets could change a bit as well as shape of price action, but what we could say right now definitely, it is not time to go short right now and our scenario with "222" has not been confirmed. Thus, our primary view by far is upside continuation right from current levels.