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Forex Signal (Friday November 4, 2011 – 7:00am EDT) – CA Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Nov 3, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello All,

    Today we have Canadian Employment Change and Canadian unemployment rate due to arrive at the same time.
    Current unemployment rate in Canada is 7.1% I do not expect these numbers to conflict with the with CA Employment change.


    Canadian Employment Change
    Forecast 20K
    Previous 60.9K
    Pair to trade: USD/CAD

    Numbers we need:
    BUY USD/CAD -15k
    SELL USD/CAD 50K


    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency, this forecast is predicated to be bad for the currency
    Occurrence: About 8 days after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Excellent, we can see a 50 pip on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    CA Employment Change is forecasted to arrive at 20K
    And CA Unemployment rate is forecasted to arrive at 7.1% from 7.1%
    However today we will be trading the Employment change release, if we 50K or higher I will look to enter a SHORT position on USD/CAD and if we get -15K or lower I will go LONG on USD/CAD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see a 50 pips on spike. This report is known to have double spikes so if you miss the retracement on the first spike or it does not retrace, please be patient and wait for retracement on the second spike, I would then need a 50% retracement to enter.

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    The Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed people in Canada in the given month. A rise trend indicates strength in the labor market and has a positive affect on consumer spending and therefore on the economic growth.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    I will look for a pre news trade on this report, I would look at current volumes and ensure volume is not flat (this is important) and enter about 15 min prior to the news for a LONG position in USD/CAD. I would have a tight SL of 15 pip plus spread, My most likely entry point will be when I see momentum and MACD indicators both cross over on a 1min chart and a 5min chart, once that is confirmed I will enter my LONG position with a Take profit Target of 15-20 Pips.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option for this report

    I will look for a 30-50% retracement in the original spike before entering any trade.
    I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike or a resistance level and place a SL at the entry price of the first initial spike. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    Historical Chart and Data for CA Employment Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Nov 3, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Good One

    This would of been a great spike trade...if you could get filled. I was denied trade on 3 accounts.

    Anyone get in on a spike? Stavro?
     
  3. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Yes i always get in on Spike. I have a great set-up.
     
  4. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Sweet. What kind of spread on the USDCAD on this one? Any slippage?

    For comparison...for me the USDCAD spread was jumping around 12-15 pips at news release. And, slippage always can be an issue. And...getting filled can be tough on that pair.
     
  5. Tijl Uilen

    Tijl Uilen Recruit

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    Could you tell us about your set-up in a few words? I find it difficult to catch the spike so I just get out of the market during the news most of the time.

    Maybe any tips what books to read, videos to see, techniques to try?
     
  6. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Probably Not


    Stavro probably won't tell you much. And I can't blame him. If you've been in this game long, you will understand exactly why that is. Methods, brokers, etc. are all going to be played close to the chest.

    Although, I'd sure like to know more from Stavro...;)
     

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