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Forex Signal (Friday November 4, 2011 - 8:30am EDT) - US NFP Employment Change

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Nov 3, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello Members,

    Before we wrap up the week with our last news trade, I would like to apologise for not being able to be around the forum as much as I liked, as you know due to hackers/scamers trying to stop our community, It has also put limits for me to provide you with the service you require. Anyhow here is the trade plan and lets continue the mission to make PIPS!

    US NFP Employment Change
    Forecast 95
    Previous 103
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD and USD/JPY
    Triggers we need: BUY -60 EUR/USD
    BUY +60 USD/JPY

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Forecast is good for the currency
    Occurrence: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends

    About our Triggers:
    If the US NFP Employment Change number comes out at +155 or more, the USD/JPY should go up by about 40 pips. We are using a deviation of 60, If the sentiment comes at -35 or less EUR/USD should go up by about 40 pips. We are using -60 to trigger for long.

    What is it? Why do we care?
    The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
    It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered offering the best overview of the economy.
    The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    Method to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Pre News
    Prior to the news release (20 minutes) I will be looking for a short term LONG position in EUR/USD and I will get out of this trade 2 minute before the actual release earlier. I will look for momentum long indicators.

    Spike
    Yes. I would recommend spike trading as an option.

    After Spike
    If your are not spike trading or if you did do a spike trade and your already out, I will look for a 50% retrace in the original spike before entering a trade. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a level, looking at a 15 min chart.

    Historical Chart and Data for US NFP Employment Change

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Nov 3, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Sandirose5

    Sandirose5 Recruit

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    NFP

    Thanks for the tips
     
  3. tangmase

    tangmase Corporal

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    -60 Eur/usd

    Hello Stavro,
    there is one thing i do not understand very well:

    US NFP Employment Change
    Forecast 95
    Previous 103
    Pair to trade: EUR/USD and USD/JPY
    Triggers we need: BUY -60 EUR/USD
    BUY +60 USD/JPY

    This means if the forecast is positive, i have to go short in EUR/USD ??

    Greetings,
    T
     
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Yes that's correct
     
  5. philipseb

    philipseb Recruit

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    NFP video

    Hello Stavro,
    I dont really get when you say selling half of your position can you explain to me further or show me a video where that is done
     
  6. Maluco

    Maluco Private

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    I realised that the NFP trades in the last 6 months or so has been very erratic, not following at all what would be the obvious.
    Also price action bouncing all over the place.

    Better entering the trade around 2 minutes after the release.
     
  7. dave edwards

    dave edwards Private, 1st Class

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    Many thanks for taking time out and helping us recruits to be successful in our trades. I eagerly await the next recommendation
    kind regards
    Dave Edwards:)
     
  8. Rick Stukus

    Rick Stukus Corporal

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    Amazing

    Stavro, your insight and recommendations are nothing short of amazing.. eternally grateful.. both on the AUD/USD earlier this week and the USD/CAD this morning,,, may you gain many PIP's...
     
  9. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

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    Good Call


    This is the toughest news trade going. The price action can swing both ways, hundreds of pips in less than a minute. I used to spike trade it...now I set my triggers so conservative there is little chance of getting a spike trigger.

    Watch out going against the Risk Aversion trade on this one!! I've seen it start out following the news direction...for instance, on bad news the EURUSD goes up...then it reverses within sometimes seconds and follows the Risk Trade. Lately, the Risk Trade has been the predominant force.

    Again...watch out. Oh...Good Luck!!
     
  10. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Guys dont think too much, think inside the aqure not out side. I will like to host a webinar were we can discuss this.
     

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