Henry Liu
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 473
We’ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you’ve been following news out of Australia, you’d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here’s the forecast:
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3%
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.6%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) we'll look to buy and if we get -0.3% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we'll do the 3 W's. Wait for the deviation, wait for the market to move with momentum first, and wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
AUD/USD has been gaining on the back for general demand in commodities, especially when Gold is surging to record high levels.
However, looking at the current market range for AUDUSUD, which is just around the 1.0100 ~ 1.0200, further gains will be difficult, especially when China just downgraded their economic growth forecasts.
Therefore, on a worse than expected release, I'd expect some consolidation in the AUD... But on a better than expected release, I'd expect the gains to be moderate as the market has been pushing AUD close to the upper end of the extreme.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a very slow moving currency pair. If the release hits our deviation, we may have to jump in sooner than later... We could see very little retracement, if any, if we get a huge surprise in the market.
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.
DEFINITION
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Retail Sales
Thanks,
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3%
The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.6%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) we'll look to buy and if we get -0.3% (or worse), we’d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.
We'll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we'll do the 3 W's. Wait for the deviation, wait for the market to move with momentum first, and wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
Henry's News Trading Method
The Market
AUD/USD has been gaining on the back for general demand in commodities, especially when Gold is surging to record high levels.
However, looking at the current market range for AUDUSUD, which is just around the 1.0100 ~ 1.0200, further gains will be difficult, especially when China just downgraded their economic growth forecasts.
Therefore, on a worse than expected release, I'd expect some consolidation in the AUD... But on a better than expected release, I'd expect the gains to be moderate as the market has been pushing AUD close to the upper end of the extreme.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a very slow moving currency pair. If the release hits our deviation, we may have to jump in sooner than later... We could see very little retracement, if any, if we get a huge surprise in the market.
Pre-news Consideration
There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.
DEFINITION
“Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”
Historical Chart & Data For AU Retail Sales
Thanks,
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