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Forex Signal (Monday 2 April, 2012 – 9:30PM EDT) – AU Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Apr 2, 2012.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 29, 2011
    Likes Received:

    Today we have AU retail sales please see my trade plan for this release

    AU retail Sales m/m
    Forecast 0.2%
    Previous 0.3%
    Pair to trade: AUD/USD

    Numbers we need:
    BUY AUD/USD 0.6%
    SELL AUD/USD -0.2%

    Economical Impact: High
    Typical Result: Good for Currency
    Occurrence 30 days after the month ends
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    AU retail Sales m/m is forecasted to arrive at 0.2%
    We are looking for a deviation of 0.4% either way on this trade.
    If we get 0.6% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/USD and if we get
    -0.2% or worse I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
    Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. This trade will have a good chance of a 50% retrace on the initial spike

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in Australia. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the Australian economy.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD
    A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Euro crisis what is it all about
    See my in-depth analysis here

    Pre News trading
    Approximately 15 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term SHORT position in AUD/USD.
    I would be out of this trade 1 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

    After Spike
    I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

    I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please note that Australian data is known for Latency should the spike begin and your Auto clicker has not provided a number please cancel your spike trade to avoid yourself getting caught with slippage; you will have a better chance using retracement and pre news methods.

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
  2. res123

    res123 Banned

    Mar 31, 2012
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    it would be better if you could mention time of the news in GMT .
  3. Romas

    Romas FPA Advertising and Partnerships

    Mar 22, 2010
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    it would be better GMT-2 hours for me... Who cares? We all live in different places and for each of us different time zones would be better

    You can set your local time on FPA calendar, as well as on many other calendars and all are freeeeeee.

    P.S. Stavro - great work as usual, THANKS!

    #3 Romas, Apr 2, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2012
  4. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

    Jul 29, 2011
    Likes Received:
    Its ok guys, Its simple just convert the time using an on-line time converter :) thats what i do.

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