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Forex Signal (Monday August 1, 2011, 4:30am NY Time EDT) - UK Manufacturing PMI

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Jul 31, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) is a leading indicator and it is usually released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends. Traders care about this release as it is a leading indicator of economic health and many businesses are quick to react to the market conditions.

    4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.5 Previous 51.3
    ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5


    The Trade Plan
    We are looking for a tradable deviation as this is a leading indicator. Its impact may provide a future insight of trends of other economic indicators such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc.
    The market usually reacts to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.

    We will be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get a 53.0 or better, or looking to SELL GBP/USD if we get a 48.5 or worse. We willl be using the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information, read after the news release:

    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method


    The Market
    It seems that the GBP is currently well supported at 1.6340 due to a poor US dollar. A worse than expected release will increase inflationary pressure and will most likely place more uncertainty in the BOE's next move to be hiking any interest rate.

    If we do get a strong release, we will be seeing a positive sign in the UK economy. This means that in addition to inflationary pressures that have been in the recent picture, we are also going to have a much better fundamental outlook, considering a poor US dollar and current Euro zone crisis.

    Additional Thoughts
    Officially, we are going to be trading this trade after the news release, but if we get a deviation that hits our numbers, we will go for a spike trade.

    Pre-news Considerations
    There should be no pre-news for this release.

    DEFINITION

    “UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”

    Historical Chart & Data for UK Manufacturing PMI

    All The best


    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Jul 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Simbasimba

    Simbasimba Recruit

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    Signals to PMI

    Hi,

    Why do we sell when the number is 69? Isn't 69 above 60? May I know what's the exact value of the deviation. Usually Henry will provide us with the value which made it easier to trade with news release.. Please kindly assist.
     
  3. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Hate to throw a wet blanket on things as this is your first day, but maybe you can check your triggers again? I think what you have on there is clearly wrong, so rather than me comment on them further, maybe just check again.

    Thanks...
     
    #3 Boko Maru, Jul 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  4. DJG

    DJG Corporal

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    Hi Stavro , can you please explain to us what do you mean by Pre news , after news release and spike trading in details and maybe a video to show us examples ? thanks :confused:

    DG
     
  5. church

    church Recruit

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    sir/mir

    what u have posted here should go for buy GBPUSD not sell we ought to look for sell incase of anything below the focast51.1. Good luck to anybody that follow ur signal but pls consider this.

    In analyzing the PMI manufacturing figure it comes in the 50 barrier a reading above fifty is considered a healthy growth level and implies growth that is a reading below that number is an indicator of slowing economy as the lower the number gets it might indicate the recession state the economy might lead to.
     
  6. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Revised

    Trade plan has been revised guys, Please see above.

    Happy trading.

    All the Best

    Stavro D'Amore
     
  7. digamer

    digamer Private, 1st Class

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    time

    Isn't the correct time for this release each month 4:28am NY? At 4:30am 50pip spike was history.
     
  8. Boko Maru

    Boko Maru Sergeant

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    Correct; this is released every month at 4:28AM EST.
     
  9. RCCarsAsia

    RCCarsAsia Recruit

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    Yes you're right. 428 indeed. Missed the whole damn spike.
     

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