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Forex Signal (Monday December 5, 2011 – 10:30pm EDT) – AU Interest Rate

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Stavro D'Amore, Dec 4, 2011.

  1. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hello all,

    Today we have AU Interest rate due to come, this will be an interesting release due to the current circumstances, looks like an interest rate drop is on the cards. Please find my trade plan bellow.

    AU Interest rate
    Forecast 4.25%
    Previous 4.50%
    Pair to trade: AUD/USD

    Numbers we need:
    BUY AUD/USD If Unchanged
    SELL AUD/USD 4.25% or lower (BE CAREFUL OF RETRACE)

    Economical Impact: Critical
    Typical Result: Hawkish, Good for Currency
    Occurrence: First Tuesday of the month in Australia,
    Spike Probability: Good, we can see 50 pips on initial spike

    About our Triggers:
    If RBA Hold rates, we should SPIKE in AUD of 40 pips and I will buy AUDUSD or other AUD crosses.
    At the present moment, the expectation for a rate drop is on the cards with a decrease we could see some AUD sell off prior to the news.

    If RBA decrease the rate we could see a 50 pip spike to the down side with AUD loosing over 200 pips by weekend coming (again be careful of retrace)

    Current pressure from the government’s new carbon tax, poor performing markets and pull back in the housing market of 20%. We could also see rates decrease.
    RBA will make further statements after the release in the condition of the economy and there forecast this will make the AUD very volatile.

    If the RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we may see a sell-off, as the accompanied RBA statement may be dovish in light of recent news events.

    What is it? And why does the market care?
    The Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly interest rate statement describes its latest decision regarding changes to the country's short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy.
    Short term interest rates are the key factor in currency valuation. A dovish statement could push AUD down against its rivals, while hawkish statement could boost the currency.

    Method I use to trade this:
    Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

    Trade Indicator
    Felix descriptions

    I will Look to sell AUD/USD around 1.5 hour prior to news and be closed out of this trade before its release, I will base my trade on volume Price action and selling MACD and TRIX indicators on a 15 min chart.

    I will trade SPIKE on this release.

    I will look for a 50% retracement in the original spike if our triggers are hit before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.

    My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.

    Historical Chart and AU RBA Interest Rate

    All the best

    Stavro D’Amore
     
    #1 Stavro D'Amore, Dec 4, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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  3. Joh

    Joh Sergeant Major

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    Hi Stavro and Felix,

    Thank you for this thread it looks most informative - so far am not succesful at spike trading/am also not computor savi which may be a hindrance/ but after reading Felix trade method comments- am willing to try it once more. Am not sure which MACD to use as there are different numbers/names such as simple etc. and then Felix writes; " + TRIX " could you tell me please what that stands for- looked at my indicators but did not see it there. :confused: Thank you both again for writing this thread -regards Joh.
     
  4. Fxonuoha

    Fxonuoha Private, 1st Class

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    1.5hour before release!
    Sorry,if I may ask.Is that meant to be 15mins before release?
     
  5. Stavro D'Amore

    Stavro D'Amore Former FPA Special Consultant

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    TRIX is an Indiactor, Yes 1.5 Hours before release we are looking at a strong sell off
     
  6. Louis123321

    Louis123321 Corporal

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    Fantastico, I have entered the trade at 50% retracement, and just closed my trade at the original high point. I'm sure I could of made more as the chart is now going further downwards, but better to be SAFE than sorry right? I just made some decent amount of cash yet again thanks to your news trade signals - Stavro can i say i love you? Thanks.

    Also, do you think AUDUSD will hit 1.0151 before it stops falling ? Just a curious prediction.. Seems possible as it's a main support. I have closed my trades at 1.01951 to be safe, but it's still down an extra 20% & falling, which I could of made more profit OR loss from being greedy on. Do you think I should wait & risk more in the future or just close it down at original spikes? Thanks.

    Also I e-mailed you twice over the last week but got no reply.

    Louis
     

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