Forex Signal (Thu, March 25, 05:30 am EST) UK Retail Sales m/m

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi there :)

This is Crazy Cat writing.

On Thursday, March 25th (05:30 am New York Time) we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.6 Last month it read -1.2.

This is one of the best reports to trade.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the GBP/USD by going to this link:

The trigger for this indicator is 0.6. This means that if UK Retail Sales m/m comes out at 1.2 or higher, GBP/USD will probably go up by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at 0.0 or negative, GBP/USD will probably go down by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

In addition to the UK Retail Sales m/m number, we will have UK Retail Sales y/y coming out. If they conflict, I recommend skipping the trade, but since m/m is part of y/y number, and our trigger is quite large, the conflict is almost impossible.

To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report click here:

For example: on Feb 19th, UK Retail Sales m/m came out at -1.2, versus an expectation of -0.5. GBP/USD went down by around 40 pips. See for yourself what happened on this chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link:
Forex News Trading | Details and History for GBP Retail Sales m/m

I hope you make some money on this report.
-Crazy Cat
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West Coast Pips

UK Retail Sales is certainly one of my favourite reports. Why? It almost always provides, month on month, a nice deviation. However, I am getting a real hard time getting in to this trade with my broker.

One thing I did want to warn you guys of is the m/m & y/y conflict. UK Retail Sales m/m deviated by a nice -0.7 on Feb 19, 2010. However, y/y number deviated by a big +1.5 causing a conflict. On top of that the prior y/y number was also upwardly revised by +0.8 adding more positive momentum to the y/y number.

The spike for this release was not all that great as a result of this conflict. You can see the 1 minute candle for this release had a big wick on it. Factor in the spread for this release (when it goes up quite a bit for all gbp pairs) and the pull back, you could have got a bad entry.

Having said that I rarely see conflict with m/m & y/y numbers.

West Coast Pips

If I trade GPY/JPY, will it spike more?
I trade gbp/jpy a lot purely because of its volatility. If you look at the 1 minute charts of gbp/usd vs gbp/jpy for UK Retail Sales early this morning they were roughly the same in terms of the pips gained for each pair. You also have to bare in mind the higher spread on gbp/jpy vs gbp/usd.
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