Forex Signal (Thu, May 20, 04:30 am EST) UK Retail Sales m/m

[Crazy Cat]

Hi there

This is Crazy Cat writing.

On Thursday, May 20th (04:30 am New York Time) we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.3. Last month it read 0.2.

This is one of the best reports to trade. I hope we will have a really nice trade...

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the GBP/USD by going to this link: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/economic-indicator-descriptions/7510-uk-retail-sales.html

The trigger for this indicator is 0.5. This means that if UK Retail Sales m/m comes out at 0.8 or higher, GBP/USD will probably go up by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.2 or more negative, GBP/USD will probably go down by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

In addition to the UK Retail Sales m/m number, we will have UK Retail Sales y/y coming out. If they conflict, I recommend skipping the trade, but since m/m is part of y/y number, and our trigger is quite large, the conflict is highly unlike.

To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report click here: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...l-sales-after-spike-retracement-strategy.html

For example: on March 25th, UK Retail Sales m/m came out at 2.1, versus an expectation of 0.6. GBP/USD spiked up by around 60 pips. See for yourself what happened on this chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

I highly recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link:
Forex News Trading | Details and History for GBP Retail Sales m/m

I hope you make some money on this report.
-Crazy Cat

 

[jazzer]

Hi there Crazy Cat, nice to meet you. Thank you for your signal information. It surely is a great values for all of us new trader. I'm just a newbie here, so please excuse my manner. I just want to clarify something. U mention that for UK Retail Sales last month was 0.2 but i check in other website (ForexFactory) Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory
Previous month was read 0.4. Is it the same report that you mean in this thread ? Thank you for your information. Just want to clear that out. 8). TX.

 

[West Coast Pips]

4 Components for UK retail sales now

Please note the components to this release have changed. UK retail sales is not as simple as it used to be, i.e. retail sales m/m and retail sales y/y. Now this release has gotten a bit more complicated and there are 4 components to the release. Please see the attached image.

Forex factory still reports this release as retail sales m/m and retail sales y/y. However, Daily FX and SNW report this release with the new 4 components. Apparently the one to focus on is UK Retail Sales inc Auto Fuel m/m.

http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/

 

[dragan lukic]

conflict

Hi Crazy Cat

I am new and I have difficulties to understand everything about the signals. Please explain to me when are the two signals in the conflict and what impact has the size of the trigger?
For example today, UK Retail Sales m / I UK Retail Sales y / y, I would say that they are in conflict. UK Retail Sales m / m is better than expected, although it has not touched the trigger, and the UK Retail Sales y / y is worse than expected. Is this a conflict? In my opinion, there is no conflict if both or better or worse than expected. Am I right and what impact in this has a size of trigger?
Thanks

 

[Boko Maru]

Hi Crazy Cat

I am new and I have difficulties to understand everything about the signals. Please explain to me when are the two signals in the conflict and what impact has the size of the trigger?
For example today, UK Retail Sales m / I UK Retail Sales y / y, I would say that they are in conflict. UK Retail Sales m / m is better than expected, although it has not touched the trigger, and the UK Retail Sales y / y is worse than expected. Is this a conflict? In my opinion, there is no conflict if both or better or worse than expected. Am I right and what impact in this has a size of trigger?
Thanks

I know you addressed this to Crazy Cat, but I'll go ahead and give my thoughts:

Yes, there was a conflict between m/m and y/y. However, it's irrelevant as the trigger (0.5 deviation per Crazy Cat) was not hit, So it's simply a "no trade." Could it have hit the trigger and still conflicted? Sure; that's always a risk. But if you use a big enough trigger, it's pretty rare to have a trigger AND a conflict.

Hope that helps!

 

[dragan lukic]

Boko Maru,

Thank you for your prompt response, it was very useful. I am new and have difficulty with English. These responses encouraged me to ask everything I am interesting in.
Thanks again