1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Forex Signal (Wed June 1 2011, 9:30pm NY Time EST) - AU Retail Sales m/m

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Henry Liu, May 31, 2011.

  1. Henry Liu

    Henry Liu Former FPA Special Consultant

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2010
    Messages:
    473
    Likes Received:
    0
    We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:

    9:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.5%
    ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.1%


    The Trade Plan
    The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.9% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.1% (or worse), we´d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation.

    We´ll be looking for an after-news retracement trade and we´ll do the 3 W´s. Wait for the deviation, Wait for the market to move with momentum first, and Wait for a decent retracement. For more information on my trading methods, please read:
    Henry Liu's Trading Method


    The Market
    Australian Retail Sales are expecting a strong release due to high activity during the Easter season. This news comes to a suprise as the AUD GDP took a hit on Tuesday despite a return of market risk appetite. Australian exports diminished by 8.7% due to troubling weather. But this release may cause a bounceback in the AUD as long term outlook remains strong for Australian policy makers.

    Additional Thoughts
    AUDUSD is a very slow moving currency pair. If the release hits our deviation, we may have to jump in sooner than later... We could see very little retracement, if any, if we get a huge surprise in the market.

    Pre-news Consideration
    There is no pre-news sentiment for this release.

    DEFINITION
    "Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises."

    Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m



    Thanks,


    [​IMG]
     
    #1 Henry Liu, May 31, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Sep 8, 2016
  2. yurps

    yurps Private, 1st Class

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2007
    Messages:
    71
    Likes Received:
    1
    wait

    Wait, wait, wait

    "The market is not following fundamentals"....excuses....
     
  3. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2010
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0

    Indeed. Look out for any news release that indicates to sell the USD. Risk aversion is alive and well. Maybe a better strategy is to hope for a good AUD release, let the AUDUSD run up, then sell it.

    In case of a weak AUD release...runnin' with the pack has some risk, too.
     
  4. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2010
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0
    Way too tight triggers. Need more like +/-.8...1.0% even better.
     
  5. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2010
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0


    That was easy...

    I went short at 1.0651 on 4 standards...bought back 2 at 1.0641 and the other 2 at 1.0636. Hmmm, let's see...500 USD profit in about 90 seconds. Risk aversion money play.

    Did anyone actually play it the Henry method? Maybe it'll work out...but, I'd set a tight stop loss. Good luck...
     
  6. PipDog

    PipDog Corporal

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2010
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0
    This has been a perfect setup to trade against the news...with the risk aversion. I've hit it twice...first 3 minutes or so ($500)...then again at about 20 minutes post news I sold again at 1.0651, but only 2 standards. Currently could buy it back at 1.0630. Just bought back 1 at 1.063 ($210)...setting the last one at break even and letting it ride. Probably take profit at 1.06.

    Did anyone actually go long?
     

Share This Page