Forex Signal (Wed, May 19, 08:30 am EST) US Core CPI m/m

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hi there :)

On Wednesday, May 19th (08:30 am New York Time) we will have US Core CPI m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.1. Last month it read 0.0.

I don't trust this indicator yet. CPI indicators start to be more important but we did not have a deviation on this for a while so I cannot say if this one is going to work well or not yet.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the USD/JPY by going to this link: http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-forum/economic-indicator-descriptions/7507-us-cpi.html

The trigger for this indicator is 0.3. This means that if US CPI m/m comes out at 0.4 or higher, USD/JPY will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.2 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

A deviation of 0.3 should be relatively safe to trade but nevertheless feel free to skip it if you don't feel like you want to trade it.

On February a deviation of -0.2 produced a move of about 20 pips so it's kind of encouraging it reacted at all. It's still not enough, in my opinion, to take it seriously and trade +/- 0.2 deviation.
Forex news trading currency exchange charts

I still recommend you study the entire history and charts of this report by following this link: Forex News Trading | Details and History for USD Core CPI m/m

I hope you make some money on this report.
-Crazy Cat
 
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West Coast Pips

Sergeant
Messages
132
Well I am glad I stayed in bed when this release came out. This release rarely deviates by 0.3 and this morning it did. Usd/jpy had an ugly spike down of 15 pips and full reversed. I am sure many people lost money on this trade. The 8.30am EST candle for usd/jpy ended up being a hammer. I am sure people would have got bad fills on this report also making things even worse.

Eur/jpy actually went long on the -0.3 deviation!! What a disaster!
 

West Coast Pips

Sergeant
Messages
132
Ops, sorry! I was looking at headline CPI m/m which deviated by -0.3 and not core CPI m/m which only deviated by -0.1. Hence this would have been a no trade.
 
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