Forex Signal (Wednesday November 30, 2011 – 7:30PM EDT) – AU Retail Sales m/m

Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hello

Please see he Aussie retail sales trade plan below.

AU retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.4%
Previous 0.4%
Pair to trade: AUD/USD

Numbers we need:
BUY AUD/USD 0.7%
SELL AUD/USD 0.1%


Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence 30 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike

About our Triggers:
AU retail Sales m/m is forecasted to arrive at 0.3%
We are looking for a deviation of 0.4% either way on this trade.
If we get 0.7% or better I will look to enter a LONG position on AUD/USD and if we get
0.1% or worse I will go SHORT on AUD/USD.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. This trade will have a good chance of a 50% retrace on the initial spike

What is it? And why does the market care?
It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in Australia. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the Australian economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD

Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method

Felix Trading Indicators:
See Felix indicator descriptions

Please be diligent trading this report as Australian private capital expenditure is due out the same time; however I do not expect the numbers to conflict or still the light from the Retail sales sentiment.

Pre News trading
Approximately 5 minutes prior to the news release I will be looking for a short term SHORT position in AUD/USD.
I would be out of this trade 1 minute before the actual release, or to avoid any spreads that should widen.

After Spike
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering a trade; I will close half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at entry price. My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame.

Spike
I do recommend spike trading as an option when there is great uncertainty in the markets; also the liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please note that Australian data is known for Latency should the spike begin and your Auto clicker has not provided a number please cancel your spike trade to avoid yourself getting caught with slippage; you will have a better chance using retracement and pre news methods.

Historical Chart and Data for AU Retail Sales m/m

All the best

Stavro D’Amore
 
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Stavro D'Amore

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
547
Hi Guys,

Ill be doing a webinar/Online seminar today so I wont be in the forum should you need to contact me in regards to the trade plans or anything else, I can be contacted either by PM or on my email stavro.damore@hotmail.co.uk

all the best

Stavro D'Amore
 
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