Stavro D'Amore
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 547
Hello
We have ADP employment change due to arrive today please see my trade plan below.
ADP Employment change
Forecast 113k
Previous 110K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 158K
SELL USD/JPY 68K
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US ADP Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 113K
We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
If we get 158K or better I will look to enter LONG position on USD/JPY and if we get
68K or lower I will go SHORT on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Felix Trading Indicators:
See Felix indicator descriptions
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Employment Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
We have ADP employment change due to arrive today please see my trade plan below.
ADP Employment change
Forecast 113k
Previous 110K
Pair to trade: USD/JPY
Numbers we need:
BUY USD/JPY 158K
SELL USD/JPY 68K
Economical Impact: High
Typical Result: Good for Currency
Occurrence: About 2 days after the month ends
Spike Probability: Good, we can see 40 pips on initial spike
About our Triggers:
US ADP Employment Change forecasted to arrive at 113K
We are looking for a deviation of 45K either way on this trade.
If we get 158K or better I will look to enter LONG position on USD/JPY and if we get
68K or lower I will go SHORT on USD/JPY.
Should this report be triggered, we can expect to see about 40 pips on the initial spike. We have no known conflict for this release. This trade will have a good chance of a 30% retrace on the initial spike
What is it? And why does the market care?
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The ADP Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release arrives two days before the government-releases employment data. This is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Method I use to trade this:
Stavro D’Amore Trading Method
Felix Trading Indicators:
See Felix indicator descriptions
I do recommend spike trading as an option. Liquidity is very good at the moment if you are using an ECN broker. Please use no more than a 15 pip limit order to control slippage.
I will look for a 30% retracement in the original spike before entering. I will be looking at a 5 minute chart. I will sell half my position as soon as I hit the original high point of the first initial spike and place a SL at the original spike price.
My TP level would be just before a resistance level or if the chart decides to form a support level, looking at a 15 minute chart time frame to analyze this.
Historical Chart and Data for US ADP Employment Change
All the best
Stavro D’Amore
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