Forex Trading Signal 03/25/09

Hey Folks,

Here is the video:
03-25-2009.swf

Yesterday we saw the EUR/USD turn lower as expected starting to confirm our bias towards retention/resumption of the major EUR/USD and Gold downtrends, and we saw stocks drop off to near the 800 level as discussed. Today we should see either consolidation on stocks or continued weakness; however, we are definitely biased towards more of a stock bull market with rally potential to 1000 on the S&P before the larger downtrend takes control again. Please watch the video for much more detail on these prognostications. Yesterday's news saw UK CPI come in high, but too high for it's own good at 3.2%. Remember, I said anything 3.1% or above would probably be too high and it was too risky due to a potential inflation fear reversal, and that's just what happened after a sharp initial rally on GBP/USD. Later on though, BoE's King really talked up the GBP and helped it maintain a very strong level on most crosses pretty much all day. For tomorrow:

0500 German IFO Business Climate (82.2 expected) - There's a chance this could get ignored, so don't hold it on a run well past prerelease the wrong way. Also, when this trade works well, it tends to hit it's extreme around the 5 minute mark, so consider exiting then.
If it comes out at 83.5 or higher, EUR/USD should gain 35-50 pips.
If it comes out at 81.0 or lower, EUR/USD should fall by 35-50 pips.

I do not recommend trading US Durable Goods (hasn't been working well) at 0830. Norwegian Interest Rates at 0900 I think is a bit too risky for my taste, but it could make a sharp move on the EUR/NOK and USD/NOK so look out.

1000 US New Home Sales (300K expected) - We haven't seen a lot of large deviations on this one, but when we have, it's been decent on the EUR/USD.
If it comes out at 340K or higher, EUR/USD should gain 30-50 pips.
If it comes out at 260K or lower, EUR/USD should lose 30-50 pips.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot

 

How come EU will gain on better USD data?
I don't say it's wrong [just two days ago you predicted correctly EU gain on some other USD better data]. I just wonder how do you know that...