Forex Trading Signal 06/19/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi there my friend :)

There is nothing to review from Wednesday so let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, June 19th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m. This is a hot report. If you want to be conservative or trade the afterspike here, you can use 0.4 deviation either way. It is expected to come out at -0.1%. If it comes out at -0.5% or more negative, that would surely be bad for the GBP, and GBP/USD should go down by at least 40 pips. If it comes out at +0.3% or higher, this should be very good for GBP and GBP/USD should go up by at least 40 pips. I will personally trade with 0.3 deviation with the SNW, and last month we had nearly 80 pips move within first 11 minutes. I might consider 0.2 deviation using SNW on a very small trade (if spread allows) with an *extremely* quick profit taking as well. The problem with smaller deviation is you are at bigger risk for possible conflicts.

2. Thursday, June 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Core CPI m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.3%. In general, +0.2 deviation should be good for 40 pips on USD/CAD; in fact, even a 0.1 trigger hit 40 pips target quickly last month. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect at least 40 pips move. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect at least 40 pips move as well. Remember that you have headline and the core number, so pay close attention if they don't conflict each other if you decide to take any trade after the spike (on the retracement). If you feel like you want to take a smaller trade, 0.1 deviation may work well but be prepared for a quick exit especially if there is any conflict with any other number. If I knew there would not be any conflict, I would go with 0.1 deviation without any hesitation. Unfortunately, I don't know that.

3. Thursday, June 19th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. There is a way to make a few pips out of it, especially if your broker would not raise spread too much. I would go with 20K deviation, and trade USD/JPY. It is expected to come out at 375K. If it comes out at 395 K or higher, I would sell USD/JPY (higher number is bad for the U.S. dollar!) and expect 30 pips move. Probably I would take a quick profit of 10 to 15 pips. If it comes out at 355K or lower, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. You might be a little bit more aggressive with your profit taking if it deviates over 25K because the actual number would be over 400K so the spike and the price action might be much bigger. Also, 25K deviation is a quite good one for this report. If you really know what you are doing, you might try to trade 15K deviation on a small position but this will most likely cause a small price action so don't count on big profits here or even be prepared to exit at BE. I might try it on a small trade with a small spread (9 pips at most) but I don't really recommend it.

4. Thursday, June 19th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have US Philly Fed coming out. It is expected to come out at -10. This is another opportunity to scalp a few pips but a deviation of 10 should actually move USD/JPY by 30 to 40 pips. So if it comes out at 0 or positive, I would definitely go long (buy) USD/JPY and expect up to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -20 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips as well. With a small spread and a quick profit taking, I would try to enter with 8 deviation. Well, 8 deviation *is* *not* a big deviation, so this is really scalping and meant to either grab a few pips or get out at BE.

Well, that would be all for Thursday. Oh yeah, we also have Swiss Interest Rates at 3:30 a.m. but I still need to do some research. Most likely any hike or cut should move USD/CHF well but again, I am not sure how and if I will be trading it.

Keep in mind that I will be trading what I wrote on my own LIVE account so I try my best to make a good judgement. If I don't, then I will pay the price on my own live account instantly. So far, most of the time I have gains on all of my accounts...

If you need a software for spike trading, give a try at The Secret News Weapon - they don't pay me any commission on mentioning it, and I administer the Diamonds room rather than the SNW service. But I make a very good money on the spikes so you may give a try too. They offer 25 days money back policy so there is nothing what you can lose.

If you have any feedback regarding this signal, please do not hesitate to leave a comment.

Sir Pips is on the vacation right now so Magister Pips is substituting him on the Diamonds room. If you need some real time guidance on trading the news, give a try at Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education - this comes with 21 days money back policy. Worst case scenario you will learn something and get your money back when you request it.

Thank you very much and happy trading!

To our success!
--Crazy Cat