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Forex Trading Signal 07/15/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jul 15, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    No big surprising news yesterday, but a slightly worse than expected ZEW number pushed the EUR/USD lower by the target 30 pips on the dot. In currencies direction, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are staying within their consolidation ranges and aren't showing their ultimate trend direction yet, but there's still good ways to make great trades on them that I discuss in the video. Gold and silver maintain their downtrend, but silver in particular is staging a countertrend bounce that may take it higher to $14 or so before heading lower again. If we get there and see it topping out, I'll make another short call.

    Stocks have staged a nice early week rally over 900 on the S&P, but as I said yesterday, I think this rally doesn't have much further to go, and with the post-market surge up after good Intel earnings, I think the high has been set around 913 on the futures as shown in the video. A surge through that level (about 918ish) in the live market would mean we have to reassess the odds out there and consider exiting our shorts... otherwise, it's game on and get short time. As I mentioned yesterday, 3 ways of getting short on the S&P in my order of preference for this opportunity are 1) shorting the ES futures (now around 910), 2) buying SEP 90 puts on the SPY (now about $4, or $400 per contract), 3) buying SDS (now around $55.60). I forgot to bring up my stock charts toward the beginning of the video, so I pulled them up at the end. For news Wednesday:

    0430 UK Claimant Count Change (41.3K expected) - I don't have a ton of faith in this one since it usually comes out along with the BoE minutes which cause the bulk of the move at that time, but a solid trigger could cause a 40 pip reaction. It's up to you whether you want to trade it, but I'm on the fence and may end up skipping it.
    If it comes out at 20K or lower, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at 60K or higher, GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips.

    0830 US Core CPI m/m (0.1% expected) As long as there's no conflict with the headline number, even a small deviation should see a safe trade on USD/JPY. The reactions on EU and GU for this are too hard to predict.
    If it comes out at 0.2% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 30 pips.
    If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, USD/JPY should sell off 30 pips.

    0915 US Industrial Production (-0.6% expected) - I think this indicator has rising potential, but we still haven't seen a recent deviation to confirm that. I'm in wait and see mode on this one, but a +/-0.6% deviation could end up seeing a good corresponding trade on EUR/JPY.

    1845 NZ CPI q/q (0.5% expected) - CPI numbers have gotten weird since last fall, and with this number coming out roughly as expected for basically the entire last year, we really don't have any hard evidence this one will work out if it surprises. Also, with that time of day, there's typically not a lot of market action, so I recommend skipping this one, but theoretically a number 0.7% will cause some amount of NZD/USD strength, and a number 0.3% or lower will cause some amount of NZD/USD weakness.

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  2. aseka33

    aseka33 Recruit

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    No video today?
     

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