Forex Trading Signal 08/05/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hey folks,

Here is the video:
08-05-2009.swf

As far as the trends are concerned out there, I'm starting to bias short as of yesterday looking for a turnaround south soon on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Stocks and Silver and have discussed some position trades short related to that turnaround. For a more in depth look at them, look at yesterday's 8-4 signal video. Today's video is focused more on the plethora of news items set to be released Wednesday. They are:

0200 UK Halifax House Prices m/m (0.6% expected) - Should see ok price action on a 1% surprise, but 2-3% or higher should see even more.
If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips.
*Update* came out higher than expected, but not by enough to warrant a buy. Had a quick whipsaw up but not anything very tradable.

0428 UK Services PMI (51.8 expected) - Be careful with UK Industrial Production coming out 2 minutes after, but this number should pack the bigger punch all things even.
If it comes out at 52.8 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips
If it comes out at 50.8 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips

0430 UK Industrial Production (0.0% expected) - I don't think this is terribly tradable on it's own right now (very disappointing moves recently) but it will definitely add buying or selling pressure to the potential move underway in response to UK Services PMI.
If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, GBP/USD will see added buying pressure
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD will see added selling pressure

0815 US ADP Employment Change (-350K expected) - An 80K surprise recently didn't do much, but a 150K surprise did a ton, so I think 100K is right about the sweet spot. EUR/USD, USD/JPY should see some action in the same direction off this, so I'd prefer to play both with EUR/JPY.
If it comes out at -250K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -450K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.

1000 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (48 expected) - Need a bigger 2.0 surprise just to have some hope on this trade. Might be worth skipping, but then again 1000 news has been doing very well the last couple of weeks, so I think it's worth a shot.
If it comes out at 50 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips
If it comes out at 46 or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 40 pips

1845 NZ Unemployment Rate (5.7% expected) - On this trade the Unemployment Rate tends to get a bit more focus than the Employment Change number, but and decent conflict between the two should make you want to stay out
If it comes out at 5.9% or higher, NZD/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at 5.5% or lower, NZD/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
On a larger deviation or with a ton of help from a 0.5%+ surprise on Employment Change (expected at -0.5% for the q/q number) we might see NZD/USD work a bigger 50-80 pip move in 40 minutes or so.

2130 AU Employment Change (-18K expected) - Conversely, Employment Change packs the bigger punch here, but if there's a conflict with Unemployment Rate, I'd play it safe and stay out. Usually they'll come out in complimentary directions though and help each other out.
If it comes out at 0K or higher, AUD/USD should rally 40+ pips
If it comes out at -38K or lower, AUD/USD should sell off 40+ pips
Remember, Unemployment Rate (6.0% expected) will have an effect and higher numbers will cause selling pressure while lower Unemployment Rates cause buying pressure.

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Sir Pipsalot
 
Last edited:

PAULFX

Recruit
Messages
3
Pls help me out.

Gud day My forumites,

In todays news analysis on US ADP and ISM, our Analysist says we sud trade EURJPY.
Why cant we trade USDJPY or EURUSD since the news will affect USD?

Pls reply now.

Regards,
PAULFOREX.
 

MaXeY

Private, 1st Class
Messages
43
you can trade them, but EJ move Is Better *usually double*

Gud day My forumites,

In todays news analysis on US ADP and ISM, our Analysist says we sud trade EURJPY.
Why cant we trade USDJPY or EURUSD since the news will affect USD?

Pls reply now.

Regards,
PAULFOREX.
 
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