Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
I wish I could give you guys something more concrete, but we still have yet to really get a push one way or the other just yet. Short term, the risks to both directions are fairly balanced but longer term we're going to be heading much lower (on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Silver, Stocks), so as long as there's a decent chance this could be the top, it's worth holding short or finding chances to get short at good prices. Right now I'm willing to continue to give the Euro a wide berth and let some further downside develop. I'll let you know if the picture starts to change. On stocks, the short term picture is also mixed, but the long term weekly chart 3 wave rally off the March lows is so well developed and ripe for a selloff, if you're short via put options (like I am) it's probably worth holding onto longer term no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks in equities.
***Note -- As I was writing this we had a bit of verbal intervention from the EU's Alumnia saying they're going to bring up Euro appreciation at this weekend's G7. This has helped tilt the short term bias towards USD strength and may get our positions moving today.
In news Wednesday, we had US ADP come out a bit too close to expectations; however there was a big move around that time due to some SNB intervention on the CHF. The big order flows involving the Swiss intervention ended up overshadowing a better than expected GDP reading as well. In news Thursday:
0428 UK Manufacturing PMI (50.2 expected) - The last two months have seen some nice action off this indicator. I'm not sure we'll get a repeat, but on deviations of 1.8 and higher, we've seen moves of about 70-80 pips where the first minute only goes 20-40. It might be worth chasing it during that first minute and expect some follow through for the first 3-15 minutes.
If it comes out at 52.0 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at 48.4 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips.
0830 US Personal Spending m/m (1.1% expected) It's been awhile since we've seen a surprise on Personal Spending, but if we do (and avoid major conflicts on Personal Income, and PCE Core) we should get a nice move. Lately, picking the pair for trading US news has been very tough to be sure on, so feel free to move to a different pair if things aren't working out.
If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.6% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 40 pips.
1000 US ISM Manufacturing (54 expected) - I plan on skipping this one because lately ISM numbers haven't gotten much reaction on currencies (only 20-25 pips or so on USD/JPY, and little to nothing on EUR/USD), and with USD/JPY not reacting well to news in the last week or so, it doesn't look like a very good opportunity.
I wish I could give you guys something more concrete, but we still have yet to really get a push one way or the other just yet. Short term, the risks to both directions are fairly balanced but longer term we're going to be heading much lower (on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Silver, Stocks), so as long as there's a decent chance this could be the top, it's worth holding short or finding chances to get short at good prices. Right now I'm willing to continue to give the Euro a wide berth and let some further downside develop. I'll let you know if the picture starts to change. On stocks, the short term picture is also mixed, but the long term weekly chart 3 wave rally off the March lows is so well developed and ripe for a selloff, if you're short via put options (like I am) it's probably worth holding onto longer term no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks in equities.
***Note -- As I was writing this we had a bit of verbal intervention from the EU's Alumnia saying they're going to bring up Euro appreciation at this weekend's G7. This has helped tilt the short term bias towards USD strength and may get our positions moving today.
In news Wednesday, we had US ADP come out a bit too close to expectations; however there was a big move around that time due to some SNB intervention on the CHF. The big order flows involving the Swiss intervention ended up overshadowing a better than expected GDP reading as well. In news Thursday:
0428 UK Manufacturing PMI (50.2 expected) - The last two months have seen some nice action off this indicator. I'm not sure we'll get a repeat, but on deviations of 1.8 and higher, we've seen moves of about 70-80 pips where the first minute only goes 20-40. It might be worth chasing it during that first minute and expect some follow through for the first 3-15 minutes.
If it comes out at 52.0 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at 48.4 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips.
0830 US Personal Spending m/m (1.1% expected) It's been awhile since we've seen a surprise on Personal Spending, but if we do (and avoid major conflicts on Personal Income, and PCE Core) we should get a nice move. Lately, picking the pair for trading US news has been very tough to be sure on, so feel free to move to a different pair if things aren't working out.
If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.6% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 40 pips.
1000 US ISM Manufacturing (54 expected) - I plan on skipping this one because lately ISM numbers haven't gotten much reaction on currencies (only 20-25 pips or so on USD/JPY, and little to nothing on EUR/USD), and with USD/JPY not reacting well to news in the last week or so, it doesn't look like a very good opportunity.