Forex Trading Signal 10-22-2009 (Stock short developing)

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

Well, the EUR/USD has worked up through 1.5000 and the GBP/USD has spiked through 1.6500 as I've forecasted for the last week or so, but as I mentioned yesterday, the bullish picture is waning and I'm turning more neutral on the pairs. The confirmation for a short that we're looking for on both is a sharp move higher and sharp reversal lower that could come soon, but also could take awhile to develop. On the GBP/USD, you could say the sharp move up portion is already clearly there, but that's not the case on most USD pairs.

One other opportunity out there right now is a long on EUR/CHF. It's quite likely the SNB will step in and intervene again on the pair soon, sending it rocketing up 60-100 pips very quickly, so buying it hear near 1.5100 or waiting for more of a dip near 1.5050 could work rather well even with relatively tight SL's. I'm in long from 1.5098 personally.

On stocks we had a clear outside down day, and today's high should clearly mark a multiday or multiweek high that with further confirmation could be the big primary wave top we had been looking for with our prior position trade short entries. I was short around 1088.50 (S&P cash) on Tuesday, suffered through the initial rally and am now in a great position short. I took a bit of small 7 point profits around the close today (my short was not a long term trade), but I'm still in about half of my short and at this point I'm standing by for more confirmation that this high could be longer lasting before moving in short more aggressively. At this point the selloff today would have to immediately reverse higher and head to new highs in the next day or two to invalidate the fairly clear short signal. A trade below about 1050 and 1030 would each offer increasing confirmation that a long term several hundred point short is underway.

In news Wednesday we saw the BoE minutes come out really avoiding taking a side on the QE issue and refusing to shed light on which way they're going to head with it at the next meeting. The market was somewhat expecting some dovish talk of potential QE expansion, so even though the statement was essentially neutral (in my view), GBP/USD strengthened notably after the release gaining 120 pips in an hour or so. We got long in the trading room and grabbed about 50 pips of it. Chinese data came out largely close to expected and a bit mixed, so there was no clear trade to be had on that. In news Thursday:

0430 UK Core Retail Sales y/y (2.8% expected) - The GBP has seen a lot of action on news yesterday, so I'm hopeful this one will give us a bit more of an extended move than usual. Typically though, this number is only good for about 40 pips on a 0.5% deviation. A larger 1.0% difference from expectations may extend the move as well.
If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips or more in 1-5 minutes.
If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40 pips or more in 1-5 minutes.

0830 CAD Retail Sales headline m/m (0.4% expected) - I typically trade the headline Canada retail sales instead of the core because it gets more attention and better price action. However, this release works best when both numbers agree.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, USD/CAD should fall 30 pips.
If it comes out at -0.2% or lower, USD/CAD shoul rally 30 pips.


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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
 
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kamillo80

Recruit
Messages
6
informations

what is SNB ? please i am new member and there is still alot of info to know?
please support me !!
 

sa2ai

Recruit
Messages
1
Please advice on EUR/USD Pairs

sir, thanks very much for your advice, but what i need is a straight strategy that tell me when to but and when to sell EUR/USD and when to limit P&L and when to stop and how many pips u expect from the strategy for both Buy & Sell. Please advice
 

davidiyaji

Recruit
Messages
9
sir, thanks very much for your advice, but what i need is a straight strategy that tell me when to but and when to sell EUR/USD and when to limit P&L and when to stop and how many pips u expect from the strategy for both Buy & Sell. Please advice
You might need to join the diamond room.:)
 
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